That's really nice. Thanks for the link. Bayes' theorem is a lot less complicated than its enthusiasts make it seem, especially Yudkowsky. If you understand conditional probability and if you know how to check your work in algebra then you already know Bayes' theorem.

Agreed.

I know, I know, really immature... but...

...isn't it kind of funny that he made the venn diagram on mammograms look like the same body part being tested for cancer?

:D