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Wouldn't it be fairly trivial to guess most of the domains you're visiting by looking at what IP addresses you connect to?

Yes. To be fair though, many sites are on shared hosts, and lots of traffic goes through a handful of CDN networks.

I think that the SNI note below is probably the bigger hole.

You can guess some of it trivially, cloud services such as AWS are popular and mask the ORG using the IP addresses.

Example: any traffic to 17.0.0.0/8 = user probably has an Apple device