Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.
I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit?
Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.
If my basic needs like housing and healthcare were already met (unfortunately they aren't), my next purchase would probably be a Tesla or a Solar/Powerwall combo for the house, or both.
Sincerely, and with all due respect, this is a false analogy.
What happened to Nokia was pretty much self inflicted. Mismanagement, competing empires, complacency.
Apple did not start shipping low end brick phones and eat Nokia's market.
Post '08 bailout automotive manufacturers are lean and hungry (for the most part)
Furthermore, the 'traditional' car market, while slow to move, is not far behind. And in some cases is taking a longer view. E.g. Ford is going straight to Level 4 in 2022. Forget the ICE v. electric debate, that ship has sailed and everyone is heading to EV. The real battle will be to produce the safest self driving product.
I am long on TSLA, I expect them to do well however they are in a far riskier spot than Apple was when the iPhone dropped. They were healthy, profitable and experienced (+Jobs). TSLA is none of those.
I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I just thought we were past the Apple analogies.
Further, the dealer model forces high markups, heavy advertising, etc to attract the kind of people that buy new cars.
Tesla is currently training their driving AI using the existing fleet in shadow mode. How do you skip this step and go straight to level 4? They need months of tuning outside a lab, worldwide.
A lot of car manufacturers still refuse to build an EV from the ground up. They are reusing an ICE platform and converting them to EVs.
Mazda don't even acknowledge that they need to build EVs. https://electrek.co/2017/03/07/mazda-no-pressure-from-custom...
heh, I'm sorry. Musk is still alive and surpassed Jobs long ago now, he's up to his 5th disruptive successful company. Online Payment, Cars, Space, Solar roofs and AI beat shiny laptop and smartphone.
It actually makes sense to jump to level 4 from both a liability & design/platform perspective.
The fact that Tesla is bleeding through the first few stages with driver-in-the-loop doesn't necessarily mean they get to maintain a competitive advantage long term.
(Also, Mazda is a 2nd tier manufacturer, little resources, mostly Ford parts Inc drivetrain, engine and firmware)
Finally, I appreciate the Musk fandom. As someone with a little skin in TSLA, I aim to take an objective view fwiw.
http://www.thedrive.com/tech/4591/the-war-for-autonomous-dri...
Apple ate market share from Nokia because of brand advantage.
Many commentators mention that manufacturers are improving their EV product, but I think that boat has long sailed: Tesla vs. Ford won't be about features, but the brand.
And with an EV, there won't be that awkward moment when their friends ask how their transmission is doing...
None, but I would hazard a guess that's because if you want to buy a BMW, a Mercedes or an Audi, you don't need to. You can simply go and buy one!
1.06^30 is like 5.5 ish? Unless you mean on saving 1k pa which is not what they are talking about, and means you're very much changing the game (and apparently not derisking towards retirement)
Futurama scene where Fry has been transported to the year 3000 and he still has his ATM card: The bank teller checks Fry's bank balance. She says, "You had 93 cents in your account in 2000. With an average interest rate of 2.25% compounded for 1000 years . . . that brings your balance to $4.3 billion dollars."
The math is correct. Plug those numbers into the compound interest formula, Pn = P0 (1 + r/100)^n, and you really do get $4.3 billion.
Your gut feeling is that even with 93 cents, you could retire rich. Not a billionaire, but comfy. It ain't so. In 50 years, you'd have $2.83. And even that $2 gain would be wiped out by a single monthly banking fee :-).
In 400 years, $6820. My intuition told me that I should be in the millions by then. Wasn't even close. Didn't even account for taxes and inflation.
And then housing and health insurance is like 2.5 times higher. It all totals to be the official rate, but man does it feel uneven.
Your anecdotal insight into how desirable the tesla is to you means nothing in terms of the market
I don't think 400,000 have just $1,000 to spare for a really anything they will just cancel. The $1,000 mean that the person who reserved it really wanted the car and is unlikely to just refund it unless they have a very good reason to do so.
I reserved a Model 3 because I figured that if I didn't, I would be at the end of a very long waiting list and would probably lose out on the federal rebate. The most likely outcome is that I'll decide that's too much to spend on a car and cancel, but it still made sense to me to keep my options open.
I expect a lot of those reservations to be converted to actual sales, but a lot of them won't. In any case, I think Tesla will have plenty of demand if the product meets expectations.
If you aren't the type of person who can find a spare $1000, you also probably shouldn't be the type of person who spends $30,000 on a car.
Also, same feeling of 'meh' based on leaks so far. I was really hoping for a scaled down S with fewer amenities, lower performance, etc. rather than something from scratch. The no dashboard instrument cluster thing bugs me, as does the fact that AWD won't be available initially (hurting the chances of the rebate if I want AWD), but I'll wait until at least the final reveal if not later to make my decision.
(a) Feel a strong obligation to be consistent with past behaviour - not just in placing the deposit, but then thinking and reading about the new car design and wanting a Tesla for months or years.
(b) Want to avoid admitting the 'mistake' of giving Tesla a free loan. Not just admitting the mistake to themselves, but also to all their friends they told about their deposit.
(c) Hate giving up something they 'own' - ie. their place in the queue
(d) Value something that's scarce more than something that's easily available
(e) Are more likely to want something that other people love and are queueing up to buy.
I still haven't figured out if I can get a charger in my apartment building. I haven't decided I like the look of the car. I haven't even decided I want a sedan.
I love Tesla, so on the chance that I do want the car I put down the deposit. But I'm still 50/50 on actually buying it. I imagine many are in a similar positions.
I feel this is going to be the killer for them.
I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling.
I hope this would give an accurate result. People might say one thing and do something else when they have to actually shell out the money...
The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.
Maybe. Or maybe he's just saying that to make money. If Elon Musk ends up being completely successful in all of his endeavors, he will be the world's richest person by far.
I suspect the truth is in the middle. He does want to change the world, but he's not willing to become poor (let's say a net worth of less than a million dollars) in the process.
I have no problem with people getting rich, especially if they've earned it. But I see Elon Musk as a salesman more than anything, and he's damn good at it. He has generated a cult following of people who believe he is doing everything possible to save the planet.
I am very skeptical that Elon Musk is half as great as he's made out to be on certain internet forums. I do not mean to say he is not an incredibly accomplished person, only to say that he does not live up to his self-generated hype.
Of course time will tell. I truly hope he is as great as people make him out to be. But I just don't see it. Hopefully he makes me into a believer by delivering on all his promises.
He was foundationally involved in one of the biggest early online payment companies, one of few private rocket launch companies with NASA contracts, basically the single electric car company to change the world's views on electric vehicles, and a major solar / battery company.
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu...
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu...
https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk...
These are Reddit AMA quotes from a car company CEO.
Do you really think it's likely that he can't code, can't handle electronics, doesn't understand rocketry, doesn't understand any engineering, hasn't earned any riches, and is just tricking everyone and leading a cult of personality?
If the combined 50,000 employees of Tesla, SpaceX and Solar City can't deliver on his promises, that means he's a fraud? And if they can, it's solely down to his brilliance?
If he's only half as great as he's made out to be, that's still 200th richest person in the world and head of only one or two international industry changing companies, but that's just not good enough for you?
smh.
I think that summarizes how I feel, which is why I said it. I never said any of the things you imply. But let's take a specific example which shows why Elon Musk isn't as great as he says.
Tesla's autopilot function has killed at least 2 people (one in the US and one in China). Elon Musk continues to spin this technology as amazing, and completely overhype the technology by saying it can achieve level 4 autonomy. As someone who's spent over 10 years working on self-driving cars, I can tell you definitively that the sensor suite on the upcoming Tesla cannot do it. And now you'll say "well maybe he knows something you don't" You're right - maybe he does. But if he doesn't then he's a liar and he should be called out on it because people have literally died and he has shirked himself of responsibility for it.
Elon Musk is a salesman first and foremost and people have literally died as a result of it.
Also: reusable rockets.
The obvious solution to my complaint - rename Autopilot something else so people don't confuse it as a self-driving car (and many people do think this).
I don't think Elon Musk is interested in educating the public. I think he's interested in dazzling them. Which is why he strikes me as a salesman.
The thing is, every product is working and not working at the same time to a degree. It is only a matter of statistics - are we better off with or without the product.
Again, my emphasis is on the point that Elon Musk is spinning the information to his advantage. He has no interest in bringing attention to the shortfalls of his technology, only to sell the public on his soon-to-be-level-4 Autopilot system. He is also wildly misleading the public as to the capabilities of his technology, but unless you work on self-driving cars you wouldn't know that.
Of course it's his job to do this, and any sane businessman would. Which is entirely my point - Elon Musk is a salesman first and foremost.
His plan is to evaluate the self-driving capability by comparing its performance to the human drivers, in shadow mode, perfect the technology to surpass human driver (10 times safer, per his comments), then present statistics from that to the relevant authorities (who should be qualified to evaluate any claim they make on these grounds), and only then proceed to release the self-driving technology to market.
I disagree that he is first a salesman. He is an engineer - and as an engineer he knows that anything he sells has to work or the product - and the company - does not last. He knows that very well, and has bet his fortunes on his engineering skills.
He is a salesman only second. And that is why this can actually work.
Time has already done that. He is simply put, the real deal. Major car OEMS are always talking about what they will do in three (or more) years from NOW. Elon has done it. Is doing it. And will continue to push the envelop. Zig Ziglar reminds us that EVERYONE sells. Elon is just that much better at it. Then he executes unlike very few others. I didn't get the merger, but now with the home batteries and commercial ones, I do. Brilliant.
SpaceX is nowhere near their goal of colonizing Mars. Yes, they are working on it, and more power to them, but it's not done yet. I love what this company has accomplished, but it's nowhere near reaching Musk's current trajectory.
Solar City went bankrupt and Elon had to pull several strings in order to save his relatives' company. Sure, there is an obvious alignment between Solar City and Tesla but it clearly wasn't doing great.
Elon Musk has an excellent track record of making promises and delivering on them years later. As his promises become more ambitious, and he spreads himself thinner, it becomes more and more likely that he will fail at some point. My money is on Elon Musk becoming the modern Greek tragedy. I want the guy to succeed, but he's clearly making promises he can't deliver with Tesla (it doesn't matter how good their software is - and frankly it's pretty bad compared to the competition - they can't make a level 4 vehicle with their intended sensor suite) and I suspect he's doing the same for SpaceX.
Elon Musk has accomplished a lot, and he deserves recognition for that. But if he makes a promise and fails, he should also be called out on his bullshit.
To put things in perspective, this car is just 10 grand more than a full featured Toyota Camry. In countries that import both cars and oil like India, the price of the Tesla would be less than a Camry if they reduce the import tariffs. It's a foreseeable option to reduce foreign oil dependency. Also in developing countries, for every person that can afford to buy a Tesla and also knows how to drive, there would be dozens more who can't drive but could very well afford one. Once Tesla delivers their first 400K cars and proves they can drive themselves anywhere in the world, the demand would far exceed supply in the foreseeable future.
If most of the things he plans to to are realized he will make even more money in the process.
The same thing happened with the S and the X. "Flipping" a 3 won't be difficult.