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Comment by fapjacks | Hacker News Reader

> DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!!! Furthermore, I have ZERO experience as a trader (a lot of this knowledge comes from a one-semester course on stock trading I took at Salt Lake Community College)!

This disclaimer is a good idea, but I'd have gone as far as saying that getting into HFT as a hobbyist programmer is going to be throwing your money into a giant hole.

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agree.

i will say as an advent stock guy i think most of this statistical stuff is bs.

i think we like to find patterns and only the ones that work in the past dont really work in the future.

stocks are run off news and articles and weather the big bank sells today or buys among a myriad of other things.

i believe hft are only really meant for big companies that have to trade 300 positions and maintain certain standards.

Not as a average guy running one in his basement to make $200 dollar a day like clock work, only if he worked a little harder and studied more phd statistics and found this "amazing unbeatable forumla".

by the way would you like to make $5242 a month from working at home? insertscamwebsitehere,com

I disagree, strongly. While the learning experience was super stressful and expensive and had me on stress-drugs, the financial advantage was nothing but insane. I'm a small time trader, started from 5 figures and now up to a good 6 figures of trading capital; and took close to a 6 figures of earnings already.

Really? I haven't many people to have claimed to have gotten an "insane" financial advantage from the stock market, yet alone HFT. I've met a few but none of them had such a positive reaction that it seemed worth investing a significant amount of time.

Any advice?

Well, that's the catch. I'm very unlikely to give you any hints on what markets I trade and the advantages I'm using. I'm also very unlikely to take any person that does that very seriously (I really don't).

Also remember that this market (or any market with big money) is brutal and will eat you alive. I don't expect the average person and his capital to last for a long time.

I think this is one of the reasons Econ as a field has stagnated. (THIs is v hard to defend but bear with me). People have no reason to share / peer review their findings. It is extremely advantageous to share no, or bad advice. Hence why you get the 2007/08 housing bubble, as hundreds of econ professors peddle COMPLETELY false economic theory and results based analysis.

In fact, many still are. Not much has changed in the field of economics. How data science isn't a mandatory requirement for such a data driven field just shows to me how immature the field is.

Looks like my data science degree is gonna be worth it then!

? I mean economics has been politicized extensively. Other than that economics is applied math and behavior. Systems of equations, Markov chains, game theory, ... Then there are specific levers one can push (inject money, take out money, regulate or not regulate). These basically modify the transition probabilities on specific states. 2007/08 was predictable fundamentally because wages didn't keep up with house rising house prices.

Well that was the intent of my original comment, that your money is going to disappear. Whether or not you stick around and continue throwing money into the hole long enough to eventually end up at the bottom of someone else's hole is a different matter, I think. You are making money, but you persisted -- indeed, between stress drug prescriptions and visits to the doctor -- when I think most hobbyist programmers will have wished they'd never started in the first place.

Indeed. If anyone ask me if they should start trading, my reaction is "DON'T DO IT". But that is for the average person and maybe software developer. For people who have a fighter personality, good mathematical skills, good programming skills, good economic skills, no kids/family and a nice pile of cash, I think they have a chance.

Can I ask approximately how much money and time did you have to sink into learning the ropes before you started to turn a profit?

These people have no edge, they have the most to loose and the less likely to risk much while not realizing the risks they are taking.

They should not trade.

Not quite accurate but I started with a low 5 figures. Wiped through about 1/3 of it in the first few months, then recovered. It took me about 1.5 years to start making a return on my trades. That doesn't count, certainly, my medical cost, occasional spending spree, and potential future health damage.

Not if you are careful, the problem is reliably beating just putting your money in a low cost index fund to a point it does better than what you'd be making in a real job. Good luck with that.

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