Billions’ worth of high-tech research seeking to make death optional
newyorker.com
newyorker.com
One of the wealthy, well connected young men he knew who got out of going into military was killed getting hit by a bus in an accident. The guy telling the story actually went into a bloody war seeing people get killed around him, yet he somehow was alive today to tell the tale.
What's my point? I don't think it's pointless to research life-extending technology. It seems like some forms of death couldn't be avoided 'post-hoc', if one had a particular accident or the like, no matter how many resources were at your disposal, however. I guess lowering the overall probability of dying of 'something' in general would be nice though.
--
[0] - sure, when lifespan approaches infinity, the probability of dying due to external factors will approach 1 anyway, but it's still better than having your lifespan capped at 120 years or something (last decades of which barely qualify as living).
I'm just trying to inject a little reality into the more starry-eyed Singularitarianist fantasies about living for millions of years among the stars as an uploaded member of a hive-mind or something.
I'm not a "deathist" by any means, but I accept that one day, it is overwhelmingly likely that my consciousness will end.
I wish I could agree with your rosy outlook, but my view of a realistic form of immortality is in line with Richard K. Morgan's vis a vis 'Altered Carbon'. People keep looking for a technology to change us as humans, but we're going to have to do it ourselves, and soon, or die. Technology doesn't change our nature, it just empowers us to act more freely on it.
Right now life is so short that by the time you barely start getting a grasp of what's going on, it's already time to go.
Our current course ends in death, not immortality.
The only thing that needs a positive attitude and a suspension of disbelief is fraud.
150,000 people die every day. That's bigger than a moderate-sized city. That's not a problem to casually get around to maybe thinking about in the perpetual "a few years from now but really never"; that's a problem we should be devoting a substantial part of our total resources to.
Other medical research has helped prevent people from dying early and that's certainly worth continuing. But that's not what we're discussing here.
I understand that this is something that's almost impossible to accept though.
Yes, I agree with that strongly. In fact, this is a fear of mine - we're pretty much on the verge of quality-changing breakthroughs for life itself, and yet it can all go to hell if we fuck up the next few decades over petty issues like profits and power.
I'll go further and say that IMO the most important goal right now in solving any kind of sociopolitical issue should be stability of technological civilization. This should come first before anything - because if we last a bit longer, we might be able to solve other issues long-term, and if we fuck up now, there won't be a technological civilization for the next couple thousand (if not million) years.
- its an accident - they want some sort of benefit, e.g. farm help or gov assistants - biological urges
Making people immortal wouldn't affect any of those. Which do you think is worse for the poor who tend to rush into kids: a lifetime of poverty, or an eternity of it?
No it's not. Idealistic is to have the masses wise and involved enough to get rid of persistent leader-castes. This sort of getting-rid is likely to happen quite soon, especially if we in the masses hear that the leader-caste are likely to become immortal while we remain subject to the Reaper.
It's morbid to say it but I have no reservations in admitting that I(and I'll throw out there most others I know) am looking forward to these people "moving on".
And by "moving on" I mean dying and getting out of the way.
On top of that, we had an extremely progressive candidate running; his name was "Bernie", and he was older than both Hillary and Donald. He was far more progressive than "young" Obama, and he was also very popular with the youngest voters. You don't have to be young to be popular with young people, and think in idealistic ways like younger people.
I don't want to see these people die of old age; I'd rather keep great old people like Bernie around. If the people of our country are so stupid that they keep electing people like Hillary and Trump and rejecting people like Bernie, then they deserve that kind of governance.
We are in a world that has stretched overall life expectancy by dozens of years already in the past 100 years. Humans have not changed THAT much for it.
however, you're still absolutely right that senescence is inevitable and we have very little, besides nutrition and exercise, that can do anything about it.
Could you imagine being governed the way that your 500-year-old elders deem fitting? We wouldn't need violent extremists to try to reimpose 16th century public morals. They would simply never have left.
To support this, you have to believe we are perfect now, that there are no more controverises between the young and the old that the young need to win. Otherwise, this is one of those moments where society pulls up the drawbridge, comes full circle. We'll have leaned so far into science and technology that the next time the elders cry "Witchcraft!" they will never go away.
When will religion die out? In time to save the religious from persecution?
> "How fortunate that science hasn't cracked human immortality. It's a great blessing that we can outlive old wars. And old warriors."
-- Komarr by Lois McMaster Bujold
The human race is like a giant fuzzing machine, we just try everything, push every boundary, bad and good, and see what happens.
But, our lives are too short for the lessons to last very long, and we repeat our mistakes relatively frequently. We try to encode some of the lessons into social structures, from religion to literature to law, to pass onto future generations.
But I can't help but wonder how things would be in this regard if we all just lived an order of magnitude longer. Less war? Fewer financial collapses?
I also wonder if less innovation too, but I imagine if the great inventors of our time lived 10x longer we'd get more rather than less, given that it takes an increasingly large portion of a lifetime to learn enough of our growing body of scientific knowledge to be able to make real contributions to it.
The author settles on allotopic expression of mitochondrial genes in the cell nucleus as an example of a project so difficult it is impossible. But allotopic expression is a very poor example to pick for something that is alleged to be "a doomed labor." The work has been accomplished for three of the thirteen genes needed; this is a capability that exists, and is underway towards completion. The allotopic expression of mitochondrial gene ND4 is the basis for a therapy that is currently going through clinical trials in Europe! It exists, it works! Yes, it took effort to get there, effort funded at the early stages by the SENS Research Foundation and those who donated to it, I should note, but so does everything else.
This is one of the things that frustrates me immensely about many of the critics of SENS - they willfully ignore some of the progress that has been made, pretending it doesn't exist.
Yet their behavior for progress that is so compelling they can't ignore it is in many ways worse. Let us look at what is said - and, more importantly, not said - about senescent cell clearance, something that de Grey and other SENS advocates have been promoting as a path to treat aging for the past fifteen years, on the basis of strong evidence, that they assembled from the various groups who created it across the research community, laid out, and made the argument for. It is right there in the SENS outline; hard to miss, and has been from pretty much day one back at the turn of the century. Senescent cell clearance is a core part of the SENS agenda.
Fortunately for all of us, targeted removal of senescent cells has finally taken off these past few years, the evidence for a significant impact on aging has grown to be nigh irrefutable, and near everyone in the research community is enthused. Yet SENS and many researchers' past vocal rejections of senescent cell clearance as a part of SENS is swept under the rug, never to be mentioned. It is unconscionable behavior, and it happens in this article: despite covering UNITY Biotechnology, the senolytics company, no mention of senescent cells is made in connection with the SENS vision. It takes some brass to claim SENS to be a doomed effort and then roll right on in the next paragraph to a discussion with one of the UNITY co-founders on the topic of removing senescent cells to treat aging.
Immortality -- to me at least -- doesn't seem like it will end up providing that many benefits to humanity as a whole. Population control will become much more difficult, unless all over-aged males are somehow forced to undergo a vasectomy. And I highly doubt that people living longer will lead to increased productivity. On the contrary, I think that people will rely on welfare more and more as they age, not because of health, but because of burnout. The obvious solution to this is the creation of a general AI that provides the majority of humans with unlimited income for life. But then, if everyone is rich, people will quickly get bored after experiencing everything they're interested in, making immortality essentially useless!
Even if it's the case, we're also doing steady progress in the "make people more robust" department: orthopedics, transplants, pacemakers, better nutrition and supplements, better environmental health, ...
I guess it makes sense, because there's strong and continuous economic pressure to achieve those things, while there isn't a case (yet?) for getting to hibernation via baby steps.
Says you.
Due to the principle of special relativity, if you could build a spaceship that accelerates at a constant 1g, the people on the ship could get anywhere in the entire galaxy without aging more than 24 years [1]. So a person could easily travel from one end of the galaxy and back in a normal human lifespan. Of course to a "stationary" observer (e.g. on Earth) watching the spaceship, it would appear to take a couple hundred thousand years for the trip to take place. But this doesn't matter a bit to people aboard the ship (well, aside from the fact that everyone they left behind on Earth would be dead just a few months into their trip).
So the hard part isn't getting people to live long enough. It's building a ship that can accelerate at a constant 1g for years on end. :)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_travel_using_constant_ac...
Considering that many of us hope to retire (or at least not have to work a stressful job) a lot of effort goes into saving up enough money to last just ~20 years after finishing work.
I'm not sure how most of us would be able to ammass sufficient wealth to be comfortably retired even for 60 years (ie live to "just" 120-130 years of age).
I'm only in my forties and I've buried 5 pet cats already! I'm not sure I could live to 130 and go through the trauma of outliving quite a significant number more.
https://np.reddit.com/r/AnimalsBeingJerks/comments/42vlvs/ne...
"A side note, I am fully convinced that ALL cockatoos are insane. They are fun to own, they are adorable to watch, but deep inside that tiny feathered skull is a scratched, perpetually skipping warped record playing the soundtrack to Silent Hill backwards. If you could experience the brain of a cockatoo first hand, you would probably feel like you had dropped 1,000 hits of premium acid and boarded the scariest roller coaster ever imagined. I love each and every one I have ever met, but they are ALL insane."
I wouldn't want to live forever if I had to keep hearing this.
Never mind the ethics of figuring out how to dole out immortality, and to whom.
He praised their work with enzymes that help regulate aging; with teasing out genes that control life span in various dog breeds; and with a technique by which an old mouse is surgically connected to a young mouse, shares its blood, and within weeks becomes younger.
When I originally read about that work I pictured some people with money and no moral compass kidnapping children and getting a similarly minded surgeon to perform the procedure on themselves. A recent spike in child trafficking could be a direct result of this. It makes for the most frightening villain I can think of. So lets hope they figure out how to get these benefits without grafting the young onto the old sooner rather than later.
Think about all religions, they come from the quest to live forever deeply inside human's unconscious, but today, technology and science have become the new religion, and its goal, in fact, is still the same here, because human beings never change much.
Combine biology and information theory, I think this can be done before 2500 A.D..
Uh, I'm pretty sure it's already too late for Gilgamesh. Sorry to give you the bad news.
This is quite an assertion.
> Think about all religions, they come from the quest to live forever deeply inside human's unconscious
Yeah, I don't agree with this one either.
I have no expectations about this stuff. I suppose I find it all pretty fantastical and I probably will until there's hard evidence all this hype is actually leading somewhere.
>Yeah, I don't agree with this one either.
Follow the commandments and you are guaranteed to live forever in heaven. It doesn't get more concrete than that.
-Paul Farmer
A major genetic redesign might require generating a new species, one that doesn't interbreed with old-style humans. Or maybe several new species; Squibb people and Novartis people might not interbreed. That's a social problem for 50-100 years out.
Automation is already displacing massive numbers of workers. The Economist argues[1] that the current rise of populist leaders is partially a result of this. People in poorer areas are angry at offshoring and trade for the lack of jobs, and vote for Trump and Brexit to fix it.
[1] https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/835429157475528705
So explain how exactly does "anyone" pull this off, or explain how there a massive gap which prevents most people from doing this. Bonus points for explaining how one or the other situation is better.
The most tractable way to pull it off is to dramatically lower your expenses. How much do you need to live? If you can get a consistent 5% interest from your assets (-2% inflation) then $1m will net you $30k of spending money per year without digging into the base. Saving up that much money in the tech sector over an entire career (especially one thats been extended due to anti-aging research, which is what we're talking about) is very doable. Lots of people pull it off, they just call that asset 'their house' and call saving money 'paying off the mortgage'. If you sell / rent out the house and move somewhere cheap then you can be pretty comfortable living on less than $30k/yr, depending on what you want to do.
If you want more information:
Eg, https://www.betterment.com for stocks & bonds, and http://www.ipmanagers.com.au for managing property. (For property you obviously want someone local to your area.)
The miracle is that we existed at all, and that we recognized ourselves (or whatever consciousness is). Next to that, duration is insignificant. A scale mismatch.
Surely human bodies will be easier to rejuvenate than that, eh?
I don't expect that anti-aging research is going to significantly extend my own lifespan or healthspan. Biology is really complicated. But that doesn't justify sugar-coating age related morbidity and mortality. They are really bad. The only thing worse than death is great pain. Old age deals out both: pain and death. It torments and finally kills you. People trying to defeat death may be delusional about their prospects for success, but they are at least trying to do the best thing humans have tried to do in generations.
We can now take data from a computer and synthesise DNA for a cell from basically nothing, load that DNA into a 'blank' cell and start it up, making it grow and replicate - almost like making life!
We can use CRISPR/Cas9 to accurately cut and paste active DNA anywhere we want with high precision.
All these tools are ready, we just have to work out how to use them
CRISPR/Cas9 is more precise than technologies before, but still not perfect: http://www.nature.com/news/enzyme-tweak-boosts-precision-of-...
These things have a way of being impossible until they are not. It used to be impossible to communicate with someone a great distance away, then we invented the telegraph. It used to be impossible to see someone at a great distance, then our seemingly-unrelated breakthroughs in network technology brought us easy consumer video chat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_medicine_and_medic...
As far as I know, there are two paradigms about ageing: There is a biological clock inside us or it's only entropy acting (damage accumulation).
Both would start in the moment of conception. So, what it means "once it has started"?
Could be reversed with a heart transplant?
Based on what data ? Read newspapers back in the 80s, we were going to solve every disease by the year 2010 or so. But for the most part medicine has not evolved by huge leaps. Sure, we have made some important drug discoveries, but by far and large we are notoriously bad at predicting what we can achieve in a set span of time.
No. No, when cells multiply uncontrollably, that's called cancer.
So, right now, in fact it's unchecked population growth that's much more akin to a cancer, than any hypothetical immortality.
As for unnecessary (or less important) things taking up resources; how many people do you know who have had their appendix and gallbladder taken out?
unchecked population growth is indeed a problem, what impact do you suppose it will have on the population when people keep living longer and longer, and a few of them are essentially undying?
in your comment, are you meaning to speak metaphorically or am I reading into it too much. the symbolic reading of your words suggests that certain people might have the status of a gallbladder. did you mean to imply that?
In all seriousness I find that to be an unconvincing argument; isn't it better to have that choice rather than let it be made for us? Where would we be if Newton and Einstein were still alive? The only argument for aging I've ever liked is that culture just can't really advance without it- old people (on the whole! many older people are fantastic and very progressive) eventually seem to stop catching up to the rest of society. But still, it seems like insufficient reason to let brilliant people die.
In addition, you don't get to pick who lives on and who doesn't. Think of all the people you would find to be very culturally backwards that would still be alive and hold a lot of power.
Getting to choose to live longer = good. I'm not trying to argue against that. I'm just trying to point out the benefits that natural death provides to society, because these benefits are something I personally plan to think carefully about as the choice to live longer and longer becomes an option.
Is the assumption that each generation is better than the last?
And as long we are talking about scientists, Feynman said this in his speech:
"The ideas I wish to describe are old ideas. There is practically nothing that I am going to say tonight that could not easily have been said by philosophers of the seventeenth century. Why repeat all this? Because there are new generations born every day. Because there are great ideas developed in the history of man, and these ideas do not last unless they are passed purposely and clearly from generation to generation."
Or you could also point on the other end of the spectrum ? What if Attila or Stalin were still alive? Would that be a good thing for humanity ?
[....]
If the French Revolution were to recur eternally, French historians would be less proud of Robespierre. But because they deal with something that will not return, the bloody years of the Revolution have turned into mere words, theories, and discussions, have become lighter than feathers, frightening no one. There is an infinity of difference between a Robespierre who occurs only once in history and a Robespierre who eternally returns, chopping off French heads.
[....]
For how can we condemn something that is ephemeral, in transit? In the sunset of dissolution, everything is illuminated by the aura of nostalgia, even the guillotine.
- Kundera, from the first chapter of The Unbearable Lightness of Being; mistakes mine, typed hastily from my dead-tree copy for want of a quickly DuckDuckGoable digital one.
(yes, it goes on to wrestle with many of the objections/concerns you should already have about the small snippet above)
Einstein and Newton contributed a lot but they were part of a historical trend, not genetic hail marys who ushered mankind from one epoch to the next.
"...it seems like insufficient reason to let brilliant people die."
This is - look, you can't argue that someone has the right to live based on their life achievements. This is like the ultimate perversion of the 'american drem' delusion - just achieve great thing and you can live forever.
Unfortunately Johnny never did crack the Navier-Stokes equation so instead of given the Immortality Treatment he became fertilizer in the end
>This is - look, you can't argue that someone has the right to live based on their life achievements. This is like the ultimate perversion of the 'american drem' delusion - just achieve great thing and you can live forever.
I'm very anti-libertarian and totally against the idea that the ends justify the means wrt achievement. However geniuses do exist, and their productivity is very often cut short by death or age. As a race we would have been able to gain immensely if a few hundred people had lived a decade or two longer.
If (happy to be proven wrong here) we can assume that this trend has to do with an age-related decrease in brain functionality, maybe this could be mitigated anyway.
If Newton were alive, would Einstein's theories ever have seen the light of day?
It's not like we'll run out of brilliant people. There are always new ones being born. I think it's much better to have the opportunity for new brilliant people to rise with a different point of view from having been raised in a different environment in a different time.
You upload a brain into a computer and you might have exactly this.
At what point are you not you?
Bionic organs? limbs? New bones, artificial blood? Neuro-prosthetic interfaces or implants? "Biologically integrated coprocessors"?
I'm Genuinely curious where you choose to draw the line since it's not often discussed from a personal standpoint it's usually just the philosophical arguments that get discussed in what I've read.
Creating an exact copy of me wouldn't make me experience the world from two different perspectives at the same time. It would just create a new human being that, allegedly, would be a "copy" of me (or so people would say).
To me, it would just be another person walking around. There wouldn't be any essential difference between this person and an adult child of mine.
So if you kill the original - maybe because the procedure is destructive or because it's a consciousness-saving emergency measure - the "copy" would have a pretty good claim to be a continuation of you.
But I'm not interested in legacy style immortality. I don't care at all if a separate version of me continues to exist – I want to be continuous with the physical substrate I now occupy. In other words, we are all Ship's of Theseus, and that's fine, but a perfect replica of the Ship breaks my internal narrative of continuity.
To distinguish: If a form of "immortality" supports the possibility of another copy of me existing simultaneously with the current incarnation, then it is not the immortality I'd desire.
Responding to the parent, I would much prefer slowly replacing my neural hardware with circuitry to wholesale scanning and instantiation in another substrate.
Summarize: Identity is (partially) a function of substrate. Change the substrate in a discontinuous fashion, and identity itself becomes discontinuous. I call that discontinuity (one form of) "Death".
The physical body - and the physical environment we live in - are just variables that can be gradually altered. Even if the brain is optimized towards a particular environment, it doesn't mean it won't handle a different one.
They do exists as beings, yes, but different beings than the ones who possessed (or would have possessed) those limbs.
The question is not one of necessary conditions for "being-hood", it is one of identity via continuity.
As for being a different being, I personally wouldn't mind. I'm not the same being I was yesterday, or last year, anyway. For instance, over the past few years, I have many parts of my teeth removed and replaced with artificial components. I do not feel worse because of that.
Not all the time. If you die in your sleep, it's either painless or you have no time to realize what's occurring. Not everyone dies from a 2 years fight with cancer.
These would need to be addressed independently of prolonging life. That there is no real mention of them when talking about prolonging life makes me shake my head - living at 200 with destroyed joints and a mind which is failing due to Dementia or alzheimers doesn't sound like much fun to me.
Indeed, cartilages and joints get damaged because of prolonged usage, and not just aging. If we were to live much longer, we would have to also tackle how to make such factors less a problem to maintain an active lifestyle beyond age 100.
As he says, you start learning that you are one with everything, because you don't realise that you always were one with everything and can never have become separated from it. A skillful person operates on two levels simultaneously.
And then he enlightenedly cheated on his wife, married again twice, and drank himself to death. (Which is not to ad-hom his position, but to point out that for all his studying and meditation, he doesn't seem to have had all the answers)
Well we do have a label of what death is, and we might have a chance of changing it, and if we prefer that, what does it help to say "you weren't alive"?
If I understand you correctly, you're point is Alan studied Zen Buddhism but didn't take it as the gospel, therefore the original teachings are false. Which doesn't really seem correct to me
I'm by no means an Alan Watts fan, it just seemed like strange reasoning.
And it's .. the same thing. You can't really use that view to argue that it can't happen, or that it shouldn't happen.
(Intermixed with meanderings about how that worldview seems pretty dismal in some respects, and I don't really get it).
But I feel there's something wrong with this.
Just for fun the universe broke up into pieces, OK. Go further -> just for fun the pieces invented tribes and societies and languages and technologies and 'toys' of all kinds and companies and ... anything and everything above the unified fundamental forces.
very Terence McKenna and the observation that the universe doesn't appear to be 'winding down', it appears to be 'winding up', 'generating novelty', up from the unified forces to the separate fundamental forces, up through matter instead of only energy, up through the fundamental particles, through the light elements and galactic clusters and stars, up through heavier elements, up through solar systems and planets, up through geology and plate tectonics, building on the lower levels, up through weather patterns and climatology and elemental chemistry, up through single cell organisms and electro-bio-chemistry, up through multiple cells and branches of life and sexual reproduction, up through sea creatures and reptiles and land mammals and socialisation, up through communication and languages, up through societies and settlements, up through all kinds of technologies ..
and then why say it stops here? Why take the Buddhist style view that this is the arbitrary place to stop generating novelty, to say that nothing matters, to relax and enjoy the ride and get drunk? We should be increasing the number of distinctions and their interactions, that appears to be the direction of everything.
The universe has spent 14 billion years increasing complexity on smaller and smaller scales, on smaller and smaller timescales, winding up and up and up. Instead of seeing that as good or bad, what about seeing that as inevitable? Instead of relaxing and saying that nothing means anything it's all just illusion, why not see the illusion as the whole point of the universe, more important than anything else?
Each layer is harder to create, more costly, than the lower levels. It's harder to get human teamwork than single interest, harder to get human intelligence seeing things as separate and distinct and divided, than lower complexity mammals, harder to get mammals than amoeba, harder to get meltwater planet temperature than extreme heat or cold, etc. Each layer is more valuable because it's more rare.
Therefore drinking lots of alcohol and bringing on this death quicker isn't disallowed.
The liberated, free human who sees the world is an illusion and chooses hedonism, isn't that falling into the spiritual gutter, rather than attaining spiritual enlightenment?
https://youtu.be/Jb8XDalyT0k?t=1030 - he talks about the difference between people who go off the rails and turn to slovenly living and surviving on thievery when they want to live an unplanned life, vs people who don't.
He talks about what he wants - "I like drinking wine, but wine isn't me. I like me and wine together" - well you can have more things to enjoy if you recognise more things as distinct and separate and create more things, surely?
-- Forrest Gump
There is something about considering alterations in the current trajectory of aging that makes people say strange things. People who exercise to improve their health span, people who visit doctors to prolong their health span, people who put off death in hundreds of small ways, constantly, all the time. But suggest that perhaps aging should be modified, and people who are 100% supportive of ending heart disease and Alzheimer's suddenly develop a deep philosophical attachment to inevitable death on exactly the current schedule for inevitable death. Seems a little suspect.
I have no such drive, nor pleasure association, with visiting a physician.
From what I could gather it was coming from more of a reflective, happy space, not a negative space, because they would often say things like, "I've had a great life, but I want to go now".
It's hard to imagine what it feels like to be that satisfied.
you say, deciding what's good in life and what isn't, what's wasteful and what isn't, and saying that death is a 'part' of growing more aware but implying it's a necessary or specially good part.
I also think a lot of people are scared to death that they spent decades of their life in a rat race and are desperate to get those years back. All the money in the world can't save you from death
You say, deciding that people who wasted their lives in a rat race focusing on your chosen 'wasteful' things do not deserve any chance to focus on the 'good things' and should not be allowed to even try for one, because ... unspecified reasons.
"Lol at all the desperate people who wasted their lives" - that's your argument in favour of their death?
We only call time precious because it is so terribly scarce. If we can make more of it, why shouldn't we?
Now, yes. But the question is whether it should be like that or not, rather than whether it is so.
Just like cures for death.