Ask HN: Is Facebook dying?
I wonder if this is a universal thing -- who else feels the same?
I wonder if this is a universal thing -- who else feels the same?
So it may not be "dying" per se -- but does appear to be slowly transitioning from a "stay-in-touch-with-friends" service to a YANA-type ("yet another noisy aggregator") service / thingamajig.
That is, the same transitional state that all of its (smaller-scale) predecessors (Digg, FriendFeed, Myspace) wallowed in for so many years before meeting their inevitable fate.
The idea of posting an update (whatever it may be) to a personal thread that is then displayed to your network when an algo decides, removes the "true" sharing sensation. I would argue instagram has made similar updates (Fb company). I prefer the real-time non-adjusted update stream path. It feels more natural, if I miss something from 2 AM, that is fine. I wasn't there to experience it at that time (around that time). It takes away from the spontaneity of sharing and being exposed to shared content.
I imagine teenagers would feel this at an accentuated rate. Their lives revolve around friend groups at school, sports, hanging out. Seeing shared updates at non-related algo determined intervals would impact their FB experience and leave an "uncool" feeling.
They hoped no one noticed.
They can control the FB experience and show "relevant" ads because they create the relevancy by choosing what content to display around the ads. The real time newsfeed can't be controlled, humans uploads can't be predicted. More$$$ from advertisers by owning and crafting the story for every user every time.
I don't know how universal my experience is, but I walked away from FB feeling like I was part of a massive experiment gone wrong.
There are some challenges in how they present the data and it is unclear what you are including in the definition of "Facebook". The report doesn't break out Instagram & WhatsApp separately. So there could be a decline on Facebook.com which is offset with increases elsewhere.
[1] https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_presentations/FB-Q...
What does that mean?
Why did they use the word "accessed" vs "authenticated"? Did the user leave a tab on their cell phone open after they logged into facebook?
Many users log in once and forget to logout... Does that continue to present itself as someone accessing facebook?
How many users access via the app? via the mobile web page?
If you take out people who used Messenger app what would this number be? Also, can I be a Messenger user and not a registered Facebook user?
Pay attention to the footnotes. It shows up on many pages of the presentation.
I would prefer knowing how many logged in each day. How many did something purposefully like look at a friends timeline, search a friend, look at possible friends. How many posted a comment, did a "like", clicked on an ad...
"The numbers for our key metrics, our DAUs, MAUs, and average revenue per user (ARPU), do not include Instagram, WhatsApp, or Oculus users unless they would otherwise qualify as such users, respectively, based on their other activities on Facebook." -> This clarifies that they are measuring users without considering any Instagram, WhatsApp or Oculus uplift.
"We define a daily active user as a registered Facebook user who logged in and visited Facebook through our website or a mobile device, or used our Messenger application (and is also a registered Facebook user), on a given day." -> This clarifies that they only count if the login happened that day or they did a visit during that day. Not passive open tabs.
It does also have this note "For example, while user-provided data indicates a decline in usage among younger users, this age data is unreliable because a disproportionate number of our younger users register with an inaccurate age." -> This might be some of what people are experiencing. A shift in demographics to older people.
[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000132680117...
All that said, no I don't think it's dying for two reasons: 1) young people today (whatever we're calling the generation that comes after millennials) seem to be unconcerned with "oversharing" and appear to derive some kind of dopamine hit from it. So the things that come across as creepy to me probably don't affect that generation in the same way. 2) I could be wrong, but Facebook does also appear to be attempting to diversify their business. They've done this in the past, and I don't see too much reason to panic right now (if I were an investor that is).
Honestly, I would indeed prefer that it died. I think it makes people unhappy, harms relationships, and ends up being a replacement for reality for a lot of people - and I was only a once-every-few-days kind of guy. Some of my friends compulsively use that thing, even if they're actually out with real people not the manufactured online personae on display in your "profile."
I realize you can unfollow friends without unfriending them but my facebook stream is not worth visiting weekly anymore.
If you want to see what's going on in your friends' lives Snapchat is where it's at.
I don't think they're dying anytime soon, but their obsession with stuffing Snapchat stories into every FB product shows they're at least worried. They will be in trouble if they can't monetize Messenger.
It also means facebook doesn't get how long you look at each thing in your newsfeed, which is nice. They still get to access all the messages, obviously.
I once tried to go through all of my friends friends and block them but I got tired after twenty minutes
Steal a link to someone else's work and then complain that I'm not giving you ad revenue. Real classy. :(
This week, I moved 16000km away from home. Brand new to the city, after being here for 3 days, I get a notification that friend X has posted a local facebook group I'd joined that week.
I hadn't seen friend X (more of an acquaintance) in 4 years or so, but because of seeing this notification, he also saw a similar notification from a post I made, we both reached out at the same time, sent a few messages and ended up spending the entire day together.
Turns out we're both here for at least the next 6 months with similar intentions and have way more in common than we'd previously thought.
I've got a few other examples of serendipity that have happened due to social networks and as much as I hate the cancer that populates the newsfeed, messenger, groups, instagram and the directory itself provide immense value.
I can't find the article now, but I recently read that Facebook users post their own stories far less often than they used to. Much of Facebook.com is now the swapping and discussion of news stories.
Some of the more social, personal activity you're missing has probably moved to Instagram.
Personally, I removed the Facebook app from all my devices. But I still have the messenger app. That is a real time killer. It's a quick distraction, but often I regret later for spending time on facebook instead of doing my chores or something useful. I have seen the same with many people in my circle. Maybe it's because I am getting older, but I do not hear people talking about tagging people on facebook photos, these days
Another issue is with Govts & employers looking at your social media presence. I am seriously considering just abandoning my facebook page as I feel it will seem suspicious if I delete it and I did see a couple of people complaining of how facebook activates deleted facebook profile.
I stopped using facebook because i got gaslighted by the algo again and again. If I "share" my friends see it, but anything else and magically nobody sees it. So FB isn't even a way to stay in touch with my friends because... it won't let me.
But it is changing, and as a company they've taken steps to stay relevant, and are still the big social media company. I don't think they'll go down without a fight, and strategically they may one day pivot away from the FB app towards a suite of ones they've bought up.
The advertising business model works in contradiction to finding the most relevant content for you. I've unliked every page to get the most stripped down version of my feed possible.
1. The connection part is true, partially. Facebook for me keeps my hold of people I knew or met in the past. But I almost never add new connection via facebook. It is always via, whatsapp or linkedin.
2. The sharing part is done well (for uploaded or created content) but there is a lot of noise from all the pages and ads. So,even when done well, it doesn't encourage me to share much over there given it only reaches to probably only a fraction of my connections.
Photos have been taken over by Snapchat and Instagram, and discussions/ witty updates seem to be more concentrated on Twitter.
Recently I picked it back up, but now I spend most of my time in private or public topic groups. I find there are some decent posts in groups where members have to be invited or approved to join.
Snapchat adoption is crazy high where I am, but most of those people are still on Facebook too—they just use them differently.
I used it differently after that. I don't use it much at all any more. I have everyone's story hidden. I may pop back in to figure out a birthday date or some other fact about someone.
Many people use it like that now. They just block off a bunch of story/timelines and focus on a small subset of people.
Googling around, it looks like this lifting of the .edu restriction happened eleven years ago in 2006, around two years after FB launched in 2004. Contrary to your own declining experience, this was actually before FB became relevant to masses of people around the world. Most of the FB history and success has taken place "post-edu" now.
Requiring people to have .edu addresses ranges from being bat shit crazy to crudely elitist, unless it's just intended as a temporary limitation as part of a pilot launch, which is what it looks like this may have been?
I'm actually quite surprised to learn about this bit of Facebook history.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2007/jul/25/media.new...
At the time, many were under the impression it would continue as such to prevent the proliferation of middle school/high school students from joining and contaminating the site like MySpace.
Back then, MySpace had some horrible user interface experiences. Users would add javascript plugins and themes to their pages that provided too much individuality. At times, the changes were so drastic you could not tell if a user's page was on myspace without looking at the URL.
To this day, Facebook carries a signature look & feel and will never allow any drastic changes to the UI to accommodate a user's distinct style.
Bear with me while I lay it all out for you. Notice your natural rising rage to this presentation because the zeitgeist dictates you will prefer outrage to the deterministic positions of others, and I'll explain for you why that's the case in a minute.
Human psychology lets news feed push our buttons to make us come back. Our reptilian brains have enslaved us to be click slaves working for the world's bankers! The new exploited class... What a pitiful result for the first generation online and with the shiny tech. Information superhighway... Of broken dreams. But we are mostly happy in our blissful exploitation, and so the bankers are happy, because the best slaves are the ones that believe themselves free.
The zeitgeist dictates that outrage engages because outrage has become the main currency you can trade in for being right. In a world that has exchanged old authority values for new authority values, there's a transition period of authority looting which is where we are now. The crowd naturally gets a little mad and scared when the values that used to lead the crowd suddenly dematerialize, and in the age of authority looting everybody runs around trying to get as much authority for themselves as they can. And it turns out that the way individuals can loot authority for themselves in these troubled times is by taking it from others. So outrage engages because outrage let's you pretend others are wrong so you can pretend you are right, thereby lootin some sweet authority for yourself. And social CMS systems are obviously an efficient arena for this.
Demographics mean the global billion-user social CMS must optimize its algorithms for people and groups who are the largest and of which you are not necessarily a member. Prepare for moments of jarring discomfort as you encounter the Other, algorithmically abstracted for you for your viewing pleasure.
The economics of its revenue and financing structure, means that the Face is answerable to investors, advertisers then us. Human churn is less costly than advertiser churn. To run a business like this and make it profitable you have to be ruthless about the things which earn you money and about the things which dont.
But we must never fall into the trap of criticising our benevolent billionaire overlords, who graciously provide these systems for our benefit. They are simply trying to connect all of humanity in a harmony of unity and the beauty of oneness....hmmm, I could believe that if by connecting everyone you meant put them in a glass jar with little air and watching them fight for scarce resources of credibility and popularity. But who knows... Maybe this pressure cooker actually improves humanity in some way. I guess the question is are such systems a selective pressure for good ideas or does it simply bring out the worst of our natures?
The Face is clearly a social experiment. And it's an adaptive company. If the Zeitgeist was different I'm sure their algorithms would be optimizing to create different sorts of experiences for us.
And I don't think the Face is dying unless our whole human civilization is. Which I think is unlikely. It might be ugly, but Facebook is a reflection of us. It's the interactive mirror. Some people don't like looking in the mirror. It's not surprising. It can be uncomfortable. To see your true Face.
If you don't like what you see don't blame The Zuck blame yourselves. It's just showing you who you really are. To get where you're going you got to start where you are right? Maybe it's a good thing that we can all see ourselves so clearly now.