I don't care for a keynote. I want modern hardware with OS X on my desktop. If they release that online only, I am happy, too. What's the advantage of a keynote taking 1,5 hours, showcasing apps I'll never use and demoing projects that don't interest me?

From what I read, they're expected to release more iPads.

For sure there will be an event with a few journalists. Probably too late for something bigger.

As for caring, the iPod was introduced at a small event at Apple's headquarters. I don't know if the size of the venue has necessarily anything to do with the importance of the product.

there have never been keynotes for refreshes (updated specs), only redesigns (new features and form factors)