U.K. Parliament Gives Theresa May Permission to Start Brexit
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
[1] http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-392551...
I'd pay to see that movie!
And given that Scotland has thrice the population of Ireland, and an unpoliceable land border with England, you would see bombings in England like you haven't seen in 70 years.
It's tough on the Scotts no matter what, especially since during the previous referendum the main line to sell 'stay in the UK' was that otherwise they'd have to re-negotiate getting back into the EU.
Sad day for democracy.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/how-di...
The assumption that you can manage to fit voting into your life comes from a place of privilege that some people lack. Punishing them harder until they behave more responsibly fixes nothing.
EDIT: It appears the UK has some problems too [1], and being Australian where voting is a legal requirement, easy to enroll and difficult to drop off the register, my perspective is perhaps a bit harsh.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2015/feb/...
I'm sorry to hear of your situation, but I hardly think it's relevant to the discussion.
Really?
In Canada they often had a ban on televising election results until after polls closed. Why? You don't want someone changing their vote because of how the polls are going.
You know, you want them to vote based on their own beliefs, not who is going to win.
That idea makes sense in true proportional representation system, but in a first-past-the-post system then strategic-voting becomes important (as voting-for-beliefs is an immediately suboptimal strategy), and therefore if voters know who is currently in the lead and alter their voting behaviour then surely that's a good thing for democracy?
I think what you actually mean is "sad day for my political viewpoint".
Maybe our societies will shift to seeking longer-term gains.
Your comment, however, dismissed that low voter turnout was sad at all, because they could have voted. And here you are saying the opposite -- that you understand it can be sad.
In other words, bemoaning the result of a democratic referendum as a sad day for democracy, and attributing it to your side not showing up on the day, makes no sense and plays into a long-running theme that when the left wins it's a success for democracy and when the right wins it's a failure of democracy.
In my opinion, the Brexit vote reflects a fundamental political division in the UK and much of the developed world. Older Britons have, in a profound an systematic way, pulled the ladder up behind them. A multitude of factors have skewed society in favour of the old, from housing costs to student fees to ironclad pensions.
Pensioners have the lowest rate of poverty of any age group and are nearly half as likely to be poor than children. Pensions continue to grow above inflation, while wages have barely recovered since the financial crisis. Rampant growth in house prices coupled with a chronic shortage of social housing have effected an unprecedented transfer of wealth from young to old. On the balance of evidence, the term "kleptogerontocracy" does not seem entirely unjustified.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati...
> Things didn't go how you wanted
They certainly didn't > so therefore it must be wrong, hateful,
> xenophobist, and racist
I'm just yet to hear any arguments that, when dug into, aren't.The least bad argument seems to devolve down to the conceit that "British experts are better than pan-European experts at making decisions", and the nicest thing you can say about that particular argument is "it's a misguided view of British primacy".
Playing devil's advocate for a minute, here are just a few of the big claims often made before the referendum that would point in favour of leaving if you accept them:
- The EU economy is still fragile, particularly within the Eurozone. Another financial crisis is possible, or even likely, within the next few years, and the recovery could be even harder if it does happen.
- The EU takes billions of pounds in funding from the UK every year, and yet has a track record of not producing any properly audited accounts to show where the money actually goes.
- The power structures of the EU are cryptic and there are legitimate concerns about democratic deficit.
- The EU has a tendency to regulate excessively, perhaps with good intentions, but with poor execution. This is harmful, particularly to small businesses whose needs are frequently overlooked. The regulations apply to goods and services for domestic consumption or trade outside the EU as well as to trade within the EU, even though the latter represents only a relatively small part of our economy as a whole.
- Being a member of the EU limits our ability to make independent trade deals with the rest of the world. The EU's track record on making good trade deals with non-EU partners on our behalf is questionable. Our international trading was already shifting slowly but surely towards more trade with non-EU partners, and this is only likely to accelerate given global economic development patterns, even if the EU doesn't suffer another major financial problem.
- A vote to remain would de facto be a vote for ever closer union, increasing our exposure to all of the above and reducing the influence of our national government. In the strongest negotiating position a British leader would ever likely be in, Cameron still won only minor concessions, which may or may not have been binding. In any case, with 26/28 member states already in or expected to join the Eurozone, it is unrealistic to expect a "two-speed Europe" to remain a relevant concept, and arguments about keeping a seat at the table by remaining in are significantly weakened.
As I said, I'm just playing devil's advocate here and making the case for a single side of the debate, but I don't see anything particularly wrong, hateful, xenophobic or racist about any of those points, and none of them seems particularly esoteric or out of character with what many who came down on the Leave side were saying before the vote.
> Playing devil's advocate for a minute
Excellent :-) > Another financial crisis is possible,
> or even likely, within the next few
> years, and the recovery could be even
> harder if it does happen
It's unclear to me how one gets from there to "the UK would be better equipped to handle EU-originating recession from outside the EU", especially as it's not yet Euro-using. > The EU takes billions of pounds in
> funding from the UK every year
> yet has a track record of not producing
> any properly audited accounts to show
> where the money actually goes
Isn't the EU budget available easily online? Anyway, using this as an argue presupposes:a) The UK doesn't get £8bn of value from being part of the EU. Given the size of the tax basis from financial services (£66bn/annum), and that the UK is the EU's defacto financial and service center, and that passporting rights will likely evaporate when we leave the EU, this seems faintly ridiculous.
b) UK politicians would be able to better distribute this £8bn than EU civil servants. Evidence to support this is scant on the ground.
Both presuppositions need to be true for the argument to hold.
> The power structures of the EU are
> cryptic and there are legitimate concerns
> about democratic deficit
There are legitimate concerns about democratic deficit within the UK, as well. The EU parliament represents an effective third chamber, but only the second in the UK that's directly elected. I don't see how one can reasonably claim that a democratic deficit is being reduced by decreasing the proportion of lawmakers who are elected. > The EU has a tendency to regulate excessively
When asked for examples, people tend to come up with bendy bananas, which even a cursory glance at reveals to be nationalist propoganda. So no, I don't accept this, and consider it a facet of misplaced nationalism. There's also absolutely no evidence that UK politicians would come up with better or less onerous regulation. > Being a member of the EU limits our ability to
> make independent trade deals with the rest of
> the world
Reducing the size of our negotiating power is unlikely to result in better trade deals. > A vote to remain would de facto be a vote for
> ever closer union
Baseless scaremongering.Thankyou for taking the time to write all these out.
It's unclear to me how one gets from there to "the UK would be better equipped to handle EU-originating recession from outside the EU", especially as it's not yet Euro-using.
One reasonable point I heard was that if you're voting to stay in on economic grounds, you're essentially betting that the benefits of closer trade with EU partners will outweigh the costs from restricted trade with non-EU partners. If the ability of those EU partners to trade effectively is significantly reduced, for example because they're dealing with a new Eurozone financial crisis, then the cost/benefit ratio could change significantly.
Another is that with almost everyone else in the EU either already in the Eurozone or planning to join it, EU policy would inevitably be built around protecting the interests of the Eurozone if crunch time arrived, but that wouldn't necessarily be in the economic interests of the few remaining non-Euro member states.
Isn't the EU budget available easily online?
I think it's the "not audited" part, and evidence suggesting various dubious "redirections" of the funds, that upset people here.
The UK doesn't get £8bn of value from being part of the EU. Given the size of the tax basis from financial services (£66bn/annum), and that the UK is the EU's defacto financial and service center, and that passporting rights will likely evaporate when we leave the EU, this seems faintly ridiculous.
The City is a major international centre for financial services, providing them to both EU and non-EU consumers. This demonstrates the demand for those services from around the world and the UK's ability to provide competitive services whether or not the consumer is also in an EU member state. This in turn suggests that businesses in other EU member states would continue to want to use the services regardless of the UK's membership.
UK politicians would be able to better distribute this £8bn than EU civil servants. Evidence to support this is scant on the ground.
But at least the UK politicians are then accountable for how they spend the money, and UK reporting standards will apply so the facts will be known.
There are legitimate concerns about democratic deficit within the UK, as well.
Certainly, and many who voted Leave also advocate electoral reform at home. But two (or more) wrongs do not make a right.
The EU parliament represents an effective third chamber, but only the second in the UK that's directly elected. I don't see how one can reasonably claim that a democratic deficit is being reduced by decreasing the proportion of lawmakers who are elected.
In the UK, the Commons has primacy over the Lords. This is enshrined in law and the power is actually used occasionally.
In the EU, there is no such primacy of the European Parliament over the Commission or Council, and even after the Lisbon Treaty the real power is concentrated in the latter parts of the EU administration.
When asked for examples, people tend to come up with bendy bananas
On the contrary, when Remain advocates criticise this point all they ever seem to come up with is something about bananas that was debunked long ago. However, there are countless other regulations that are real and just as silly. (I've seen many extensive discussions about this area, and giving my personal opinion for a moment I actually have a lot of sympathy with this particular argument.)
There's also absolutely no evidence that UK politicians would come up with better or less onerous regulation.
But what evidence would anyone reasonably expect there to be at this point? As long as the UK is part of the EU, it's subject to the EU regulations anyway, so in many cases there is neither the need nor the power for the UK government to act unilaterally. No-one knows what would happen if that changed, but it doesn't make the existing problem any less. And again, at least UK politicians would be directly accountable to the electorate for whatever regulations they did or didn't make.
Reducing the size of our negotiating power is unlikely to result in better trade deals.
The EU is trying to negotiate a trade deal on behalf of more people, but it's also trying to negotiate a trade deal in the interests of 28 member states at once, even though sometimes those member states will have very different goals or priorities.
In any case, given that the EU managed to take 7 years to complete a trade deal with Canada, and has repeatedly failed to produce a useful trade deal with the US after many years and huge costs trying, the EU's competence in making trade deals at all is suspect.
Baseless scaremongering.
That's not really a counter-argument. Many of the influential national leaders within the EU and obviously the EU's own leadership have openly advocated greater integration on economic, diplomatic, defence and other matters. Even if the UK has theoretical safeguards such as veto powers, its position will not be tenable if it is repeatedly a thorn (possibly the only thorn) in the side of the other member states, and its bargaining position could be significantly weaker after a Remain vote because the threat of leaving would be gone. You don't normally join a club if you don't agree with its principles and you object to many of its rules, but this could increasingly be the situation the UK found itself in.
>> It's unclear to me how one gets from
>> there to...
> One reasonable point I heard
And it's a reasonable point and all, but nobody has a crystal ball, and the definite cost and risks of a break need to be weighed upon a castle built in the sky of hopeful predictions, based on nothing but the idea that British people are better than Europeans, so will make better deals. > evidence suggesting various dubious
> "redirections" of the funds
I don't think I've ever seen an example of this, and I'm surprised more wasn't made of it during the referendum campaign if there's anything particularly egregious in it.However, again, there's a presupposition here that British politicians / civil-servants will be more rigorous, more diligent, etc etc.
> This demonstrates the demand for those
> services from around the world
No. If McDonald's stopped selling hamburgers tomorrow, you can't say it'll all be ok because they sell a lot of fries at the moment. The UK is seen a gateway into Europe. If this is impeded by taxes and regulations that aren't currently in place, the only way we get to the City remaining £8bn of tax revenue unscathed is by presupposition that British etc etc etc etc > UK reporting standards will apply
Rather than those shifty EU reporting standards, presumably? > In the EU, there is no such primacy
> of the European Parliament over the
> Commission or Council
Except the head of the Commission is elected by MEPs, and the Council is chosen by national governments, who are elected. > countless other regulations that are
> real and just as silly
I have not. But even if they exist, there is an assumption that the UK will come up with better regulations. There's no evidence for this. > No-one knows what would happen if
> that changed
But to vote for such a painful change, one needs to assume it's worth it because one is predicted the short-term pain will be worth it for long-term gains.In summary:
Every single one of these eventually comes down to "British people are better than the wider EU", at its base. Sometimes there are one or two steps to get there, but it's always there lurking. British people are more competent, so they'll do better than the EU.
Combine this with relentless scaremongering about letting The Other from inside the EU into the country (gotta watch those Bulgarians with their premium quality dairy produce and funny foreign ways!), and you come back to the original point:
> therefore it must be wrong, hateful,
> xenophobist, and racist
Yeah, pretty much. > the craven slavery of the EU to Neocon
> coup-instigating in Ukraine (and general
> Russia-baiting
If only there was historical context in Europe for appeasing an aggressor, and some clues on how well that works.And what does that say about you?
Interesting quote from Wikipedia: In 1914, George V did take legal advice on withholding royal assent from the Government of Ireland Bill, a highly contentious piece of legislation that the Liberal government intended to push through parliament by means of the Parliament Act 1911. The King decided that he should not withhold assent without "convincing evidence that it would avert a national disaster, or at least have a tranquillizing effect on the distracting conditions of the time".
Regardless of your political beliefs and opinion, this is best described as an absolute aberration with respect to the normal democratic process of the U.K.
I'll give you one clue. It's extremely rare to hold a referendum of such huge consequence.
Heck, I'll give you a second clue. It's even more rare for politicians to then behave as if the result of a non-binding referendum is binding.
I could enumerate for you the remaining peculiarities, but if you're curious you'll find plenty for yourself.
I do understand that people often like to point to simple cases like this and say "That's Democracy!", inevitably those people don't have a great understanding of the meaning.
This referendum was more or less a confidence vote on the government. If British democracy were functioning properly, the government would have resigned, and the people would have had a chance to elect pro-brexit representatives.
But Britain adopted fixed election dates, copying the American electoral system. And referendums, for that matter, aren't very parliamentary.
Here is what one of the Lords said today: > The Lib Dem peer Lord Taverne says that peers are entitled to refuse to back down on this issue because MPs have abandoned their commitment to representative democracy. They are now acting as delegates, not representatives, because they are giving primacy to the views of the people as expressed in the referendum.
1. the MPs acted as delegate, the easy way out to protect their career
2. the referendum in was >2/3, while the referendum out was barely
>50%, you need a supermajority threshold on such a long-term issue
where the opinion can swing bellow/above 50%
3. most know a democracy needs a free and honest press to function so
that the people can be informed, which essentially is good
information, and not be deceived, especially for a referendum.
However after the referendum a number of leave voters were
disappointed to learn that one of the top promises of UKIP was a lie
Democracy is not simply about following the rule of the 50% (also known as the rule of the mob), which populists love to lean on, but all the finer details.Guess you could flip around your comment and say it's not democracy if it's the outcome you like!
2. Considering we didn't have a referendum to join the EU in the first place, I'm not sure it makes sense to have a threshold. If the threshold wasn't met, I'm not sure how the default can be to be part of something the British people never said they wanted.
3. I absolutely agree that people need to have accurate information to base their decisions upon. So it was a real shame a lot of the information published by the remain campaign was not entirely true. I'm not sure what promise UKIP made you're referring to.
It is true that democracy requires more than simply going with what the majority want. But in this case, there was a clear choice between leaving the EU or remaining. I really don't see how it can be democratic to keep the UK in the EU after the result of the referendum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/nigel-farage-350-...
Sure, the message written on the bus could have gone into more detail, but it would be a bit ridiculous to put small print on the side of a bus. The point is to have a short, snappy message that quickly gets a point across and can be read from a distance. Further details were available from the website, on leaflets, etc..
But hey, anything goes when there are votes to be gotten, who cares about facts and accuracy anyway?
Whatever the pledge was, people would have nitpicked and claimed it was a lie. There's no way to succinctly provide enough details on the side of a bus to satisfy everyone.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/05/14/97905...
I do wish that poster had been worded better. I'm sure it was a genuine mistake and not an attempt to mislead.
In my opinion the referendum was too simple to mean much. So much about leaving was not known. When a concrete deal is proposed and the terms and consequences are more clear, I think the public should have another vote on whether that specific deal passes muster. Leave voters surely did not all intend "leave in any way possible no matter what the conditions".
But sure, it would have been nice to have been provided with more detail on what sort of Brexit we'd have. Perhaps the government at the time could have given greater clarity regarding that. Although, given the fact the government underwent a massive reshuffle, and the fact that the UK still has to negotiate terms with the EU, it might have been rather a challenge.
I wasn't really close to this one (Irish, and living abroad at that) but I'm surprised to hear that Remain was not a vote for, approximately, the status quo.
> Democracy is not simply about
> following the rule of the 50%
The population has had 300-350 years to let it bed in, and the politicians the same amount of time to learn their jobs; much as the result upsets me, it's not like it's something particularly new.There never was a referendum to join, there was a referendum to join a very different thing that evolved into the EU, don't pretend they're the same thing.
In any case, the two typical arguments in favour of representation over delegation or direct influence now seem rather weak to me.
The original practical arguments for relying on representatives rather than direct engagement expired somewhere around the time we moved beyond messengers on horseback as our primary means of long-distance communication. It's the 21st century. There is no reason, given modern technology, that we couldn't have much wider direct participation in many more decisions.
The other common argument is the presumed advantage of having specialists who can consider government and political matters full time as opposed to the average citizen who has other responsibilities as well. To those who would make such an argument, I remind you that the people you're advocating delegating to were probably the worst in the entire country when it came to making questionable claims, misrepresenting the evidence, and ultimately misleading people. And I would remind you that every part of that statement is just as true for both sides of the official campaigns, which were as about disgraceful as each other IMNSHO.
We had a campaign lasting several months during which anyone who wanted to inform themselves about the issues before voting had plenty of information, much of it coming from more informed and reliable sources than the politicians, available to help guide their decision. I see no rational argument that an MP is somehow more qualified to make a judgement on this issue than an average citizen under those circumstances. If nothing else, those MPs are elected by the same people voting in the referendum, but typically with much lower turnout and based on their policies across a wide range of issues. I don't see how anyone can logically argue that the people are competent enough to elect an MP with such broad and long-lasting powers in their own best interest, and yet not qualified to make a much more focused decision on one specific issue in their own best interest.
Countries like Canada that have the Queen as head of state still need her royal assent for all bills. Typically the Governor General plays that role as the Queen's representative. However, you are correct that it's more of a formality than anything.
Interesting idea all the same, but it's just not going to happen.
I'm not sure I know the answer. Industries that are regulated may think they benefit (but a regulatory and legal framework also provide stability that attracts investors and allows businesses to focus on productive work). Those interested in fraud benefit, but that's far too broad to be meaningful and I'm not sure it's a large number of people. Wealthy and powerful people benefit: Essentially the withdrawal of the power of voters (government) leaves a vacuum at the top; but again, that is very broad.