U.S. Subprime Auto Loan Losses Reach Highest Level Since the Financial Crisis
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Finsight Subprime Auto issuance profile: https://finsight.com/sector/Auto/Subprime%20Loan
first, and foremost, mortgages are secured against a physical piece of property that will almost always retain a significant portion of the original value. in the recession, homes might have lost 60-80% of their value, but they all bounced back reasonably over time. in contrast, a vehicle loses a huge portion of its value immediately and by the time a car is 20 years old, its not even worth repossessing.
second, homes can't move. you have a much better chance of repossessing a house than you do of repoing a car.
finally, just for fun. your claim that people are less likely to default on a car loan because they need to work is taken out of context at best, or possibly is just plain incorrect considering the prevelance of ride sharing tools and public transit. People only need to keep their cars for work.... if they have jobs.
REO is incredibly costly and moving a house off the books cannot happen quickly especially in a down market.
Cars are better in that way.
Most people will be upside down in their car loan but there's an international market for cars. It's pretty easy to liquidate a used car and capture some capital in the short term. Try that with a $450,000 McMansion.
Chances are someome will take out a new loan with one of the big banks to finance their new purchase. The bank gets to keep all the money already paid in by the original lender anyway.
Is that true? Home values dropped 50%+ in some areas during the housing crisis. And when you're talking about a several hundred dollar home, that adds up quickly.
Cars have the disadvantage that they depreciate, but if you can repo them quickly enough, the losses can be contained.
And as someone else mentioned, cars are mobile, so if you repo one in California, you can always move it to Washington if it sells faster.
Whoever reposses the cars isn't interested in sitting on them for weeks to wait for the right buyer at the right price.
https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/how-fast-does-my-new-car-...
Plus the repo fee coming out of the auction price...
Even 72, 84 months is insane. If you need to finance a car for that long to afford the payments, you need to buy a cheaper car.
> Average monthly payment: $503 — the first time the average auto payment has gone over the $500 mark.
> Average term for an auto loan: 68 months — this is the longest average term ever seen by Experian.
Do people not remember the economy can go in the toilet really fast? Why aren't people constantly scared and thus saving as much as possible and acquiring good assets? Even if the economy stays strong, your own career or profession can go bad or get disrupted real fast.
As far as why people buy high end cars when they're not very rich, going into significant debt, I suspect it's because a car is a status symbol for so many people. If I could do without a car, I would. I'd be saving about $200 a month on my current expenses if I didn't need one - it's just a crappy old Mazda wagon, certainly no status symbol there.
The unfortunate reality is that (most) subprime borrowers don't have the luxury to consider catastrophic events that can occur in the future because they are too busy worried about today.
Any kind of large car that you would want for a family is well north of $30. I paid as much more for a 1 year old minivan recently than I paid for a year old BMW 15 years ago.
And, to top it off, today's car reliability is way, way higher, as is the quality (in the 60's, we were thrilled if a car lasted 6 years and got 80k miles; nowadays, that's about half of what you'd expect. And the safety is wildly improved (like, for instance, air bags, never mind seat belts!)
Cars got oil changes every 1k miles, not 3k or 7k. Just for starters.
Not sure I agree with that. My 72 month car loan, clearly not subprime, is 3%. I have better immediate uses for my money, I'm sure most folks can beat 3% returns over a 72 month horizon as long as your not paying 2 and 20.
Second, yes homes can't move, but the legal process you need to go though to evict, repossess, and resell a house is long and expensive. With a car, a repo guy needs just 5 minutes in a parking lot and the car's off to auction next month. Between automatic license plate readers and GPS trackers (for the absolute bottom tier), nowadays they're quite likely to get their chance well before a delinquent mortgagee would be evicted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U2eDJnwz_s
According to the video, there was a 31.45% default rate in 2015.
so if you can sell the $31.45 worth of repo'd cars for more than $21.17 (100-78.83), you have broken even. 21.17/31.45 is 67% recovery rate. high, but doable for sure. even more so when you consider loans with 31% default rate probably have loan rates much higher than 15%
Also, it's a lot harder to repossess a home (i.e. foreclose) than it is to repo a car. Although, some of these advance repo methods are coming under closer scrutiny.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-06/another-a...
31.45% vs 8.96%
http://www.sgcaccounting.com/Resources/BHPHBenchmarks2015.pd... https://www.mba.org/2015-press-releases/may/mortgage-delinqu...
Source: sell BHPH software, work with DriveTime.
There is so much data on cars and what their worth (KBB, truCar, etc) nowadays it is tough to make much of a profit on the car itself.
Most make their money in the finance or service department. It was not uncommon for a loan to be 5-6 years long or for a buy-here pay-here play to charge up to 25-30% APR
Yeah, but with the extremely low interest rates we've been seeing the past several years, how are they making money there either?
0 percent brings in good credit buyers who might otherwise buy a different car, or who might just keep driving their old cars.
They will, but not necessarily with the same lender. Lender A giving out 0% loans is not getting money from lender B giving out 15% loans.
>The finance guy has contacts with a dozen or more lenders.
Exactly. So what's the incentive for bank A to lend at 0%? They're not going to see any of the profit that other lenders get. In fact, they're not going to get any profit at all, unless the buyer defaults early or misses payments. It seems to me that the whole 0% loan thing is a way for dealers and mfgrs to keep their inventory moving, and perhaps make money just on the regular mark-up of the car itself (which isn't much with new cars these days), and hope the buyer comes back for overpriced service.
You should get a bigger cash discount to buy the car outright, instead of financing through them.
Instead, that buyers is more likely to be trading that car in 2-3 years at which point the dealer can make more off the car again.
If you have shitty credit, that 0% loan pops up to 8-11%.
Besides, it doesn't matter what the prime interest rate is - the consumer rate is always (prime + markup)%.
(Of course, if you miss a payment, that 0% rate will jump to 12%.)
Example: https://www.toyotafinancial.com/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Motor_Credit_Company
http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-encourages-drivers-sign-...
In fact, Mazda gave me a $500 incentive to borrow at 0% for 5 years. My GM loan was also 0% (but no incentive). So obviously they aren't making anything loaning me money.
Further, I find it hard to believe there's no or slim profits in the sales. I think I did a pretty good job negotiating. I don't even mind disclosing the numbers.
The Volt had an MSRP of $40,325. I managed a $38,258.25 sales price + $1147.75 tax + $94 tag less $1000 rebate for $38,500 out the door. The invoice on this car is supposedly $38,651.
The CX-9 was a similar situation, with an out the door price below invoice.
Both dealers I purchased from were in fact a bit out of town and had to secure the vehicles from other area dealerships. They knew I wasn't likely to use their service departments (each is almost an hour away), so I doubt they cared about any more than making the sale. The sale alone has to have been profit motivated.
Now, maybe individually they didn't make a lot of money on these sales. But it has to be the case that they are making money on their total sales volume. Maybe they'll take a loss on a sale or two if it puts them above a quota which gets them a huge bonus.
These dealers are obviously costly to operate. They have a lot of real estate and the show rooms are beautiful. They hold a ton of inventory for months at a time. I just can't believe they could exist on the slim margins they claim they make on each sale. I would be shocked if they aren't easily clearing 20% or more on average on sales alone, even on deals like mine.
[1] http://credit.typepad.com/credit/2006/04/buying_a_car_wi.htm...
I also did some research on gm-volt.com and mazdas247.com to see what other folks claimed to be getting in terms of pricing.
Eventually I contacted a bunch of dealers that I knew had the car I wanted (Mazda and GM's web sites will show you all the inventory in an area) via email and asked them what their best price was. The dealers near me which had the cars on their lot didn't offer me the best prices though.
In the end, I got the best prices (and the most pleasant sales experience) from two dealers each about an hour from home. They were happy to negotiate via email. Even though they didn't have the specific car I wanted, both claimed they could secure it from other dealers, which they did. Both of those dealers had the most aggressive price up front and I was able to get them each to come down a bit from there.
As mentioned, most profit is generated from service and finance.
Both of these cars you purchased are from high volume mfgs. The dealers made holdback money plus the sales count towards yearly tier incentives.
https://electrek.co/2017/01/31/audi-dealerships-behind-elect...
EV sales are currently less than 1% of total sales volume. But the fastest growing segment.
"The last day of the month continues and the truism is accurate: some people get great deals because it’s the end of the month and they have to hit their goal. When you look at the numbers, the average car they sell in the last two days actually loses money."
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/513/...
While I did not hear anyone in that APR range one couple was working towards a 14.90 rate six year loan. Another was trying to roll over money owed on a new car but kept getting told no one would make that loan as the new exceeded the value of the new car by too much. Yet my salesperson told me they have customers they turned down and drive a new car to their dealership as if to brag they got it elsewhere.
short story, too many people are just irrational about their purchases and have very bad reasoning. thinking a thousand extra interest is okay over a long term 84 vs 60 usually by factoring the extra across the whole period instead of the extra 24 which is more telling. Let alone taking 84 month loans!
Made money from buying and selling used cars a long time ago. The business flow died down slowly with the rise of the internet and car estimate sites.
Ultimately people could just go to whatever-site, enter their car model and get an accurate estimate, corrected for year, mileage and maintenance tasks done. There ain't any car bought or sold for 10-20% under or over median value.
My understanding is that dealer incentives aren't captured in those transparent prices. And those can add up to several thousand dollars.
That's why if you go to a dealership and say "I'll pay your invoice plus $500", they'll gladly do it since they'll get $5,000 on the backend.
There never was room for a $5000 margin. The rare multi-k hit became rarer and rarer with the advance of the internet, until it completely disappeared.
This is correct, in my experience. My credit union had a set of data that was supposedly KBB but had totally different info (and lower numbers) than the consumer website. They also capped their auto loans at 120% of that value, to account for dealership markup.
The only problem with the subprime housing crisis was that its sheer scale caused the government to have to step in, and almost caused the collapse of the banking sector. However, correct me if i'm wrong, but there's no such risk here. And as such, this is just some investors making a bad bet - which is perfectly fine and to be expected in the course of capitalism.
The global financial crisis was a unique case, due to how widespread and enormous the size of the problem was. If these mortgage backed securities hadn't been so huge, it would have been a non-story about how some investors lost money by making a bad bet (i.e. what happens every single day on wall street).
Perhaps it is a bit naive of me to expect either from a financial firm... But it really is in their best interests to maintain some semblance of law and order in their dealings.
After all, if things get bad enough, there will not be a shortage of hemp and lampposts.
And just like last time, if "too big to fail" institutions start going under, they'll get bailed out again because no politician wants the economy to collapse on their watch.
It is also worth realizing that while the great recession trained us to be scared of news like this, defaults are a sign of risk taking and not necessarily a bad thing.
Case in point, YC tries to make good bets, but they have a lot of losers in their portfolio. And in that case, we're talking about unsecured debt.