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Comment by johansch | Hacker News Reader

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-show...

"Why have the polls not shown a shift towards Scottish independence?"

Polling 5 years ago was around the 30% mark. It's much closer to 50% today -- Scots are rapidly becoming in favour of Independence. Such kind of change takes place over years/decades rather than weeks/months

The last referendum -- the Scots voted to stay in partially to guarantee EU membership. This referendum will be fundamentally different as it means choosing between the EU and UK something the UK forced on Scotland.

Latest polls have Yes on 49%.

The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-in...

I think when the Brexit deal is clearer the swing will effectively be an Scotland's approval rating of the deal.

You're right. Calling a second referendum is the best way to apply pressure on the UK government.

If the terms are unfavourable to Scotland, they will likely leave the union.

It looks like that's pretty much the intention:

> Speaking at her official Bute House residence in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said the people of Scotland must be offered a choice between a "hard Brexit" and becoming an independent country.

Autumn 2018 - Spring 2019 also fits the two year negotiation timeline.

🇪🇺

Note that that's before the official start of campaigning. During the last campaign it went from something like 35% to 48%, partly due to how godawful the Unionist campaign was.

I don't even know who they might get to do the No campaign who has any credibility in Scotland. The most sensible option is probably Ruth Davidson, so the most likely choice is someone like Blair McDougall. Labour will probably have to spend all their time trying to avoid letting Jeremy Corbyn say anything on the subject.

Too late - Corbyn already said that he is "absolutely fine" with a new referendum.

He said entirely the opposite on the BBC this morning.

Yes, this is Corbyn. He was also simultaneously for and against Brexit.

Because it's a rather complex issue that was boiled down to in/out. I voted to remain in the end but I can certainly see a lot of the arguments from the leave folks.

Sure but after evaluating, and deciding that one option is better, a leader should make that opinion known strongly.

Cameron and Corbyn standing together and saying "this is dangerous and stupid" would have sent a very powerful message.

Honestly Kezia is the bigger reliability. She was actually quoted as considering independence in the even of Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/01/kezia-dugdale-i-c...

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