Wall Street fears for next Great Depression | Hacker News Reader

Wall Street fears for next Great Depression

independent.co.uk

34 pointsmoog24 comments

I think this could be the source of a lot of interesting discussion w/r/t startups. In particular, I'm interested in people's opinions regarding the influence that this will have on the ability to create startups in the US in the future.

I am (was?) planning on starting a company with a few friends when I come back to the US this September - will this still be feasible? What sort of impact can I expect this sort of event to have in terms of getting funding/etc. Do you suggest that I just scrap the whole intention to create a startup and try to buckle down and get a job (in case the economy gets really bad)? Should I consider leaving the country?

I expect that most of the answers will be "things will be bad" or "it will be hard" - but I guess I'm looking for something more concrete/specific (if possible?). I'm pretty naive about matters concerning such large scale systems as the US economy/etc.

If your startup is addressing a true pain in a market, then you will have customers for your product. Too many startups ride economic waves and produce little added value to their customers. They simply survive because there is excess funding floating around.

Good ideas are good ideas in any market. Stay frugal and lean and aim for profitability without any outside investment, and you'll do fine...or fail, but at least you won't be too scarred from the experience.

This relates to a question I have. Aren't all of these recent 8, 9, and 10 figure buyouts/IPO's in the tech fields creating a ton of angel investors?

(All of these doomsday predictions seem like classic shoddy attention-grabbing journalism to me. Not hn material indeed.)

Your ability to develop profitable business is limited only by availability of profitable market who needs your services. Costs of starting/running a web business are low enough. Automating some business service is normally a cost saving so this should be in principle recession-proof.

What recession limits, however, is you ability to flip your business early to new investors. This is the VC business model and it will suffer when risk capital will become scarce.

If things get really bad I'll probably try to get over to London or somewhere with a stronger currency.

If things are just crappy, I'll stick it out, and dip into savings reserves if needed, while sticking with the current day job.

Moving as the dollar weakens just means you'll blow all your money buying your new currency. And a strong currency is not really a guarantee of much - it just means that there's a bigger incentive to buy stuff in dollars or yen or whatever else is weak compared to the euro zone.

Better to try and "move" your product rather than yourself. The exchange rate means it will be easier to sell overseas while the local value of your money (ie, to buy groceries and pay your rent) will be largely unaffected. Not that London is a bad place to go, and the majority of the UK's trade is (iirc) with the Eurozone so that might have a buffering effect on the economy here.

Stay in the U.S., market to (and develop for) Europe. There's much more unfulfilled demand in Europe than in the U.S.

Just browse TechCrunch and realize that almost none of these website are available in French or German.

I was actually thinking of starting a company who's sole purpose would be to repackage existing US based tools and apps for other countries. (The easiest being Canada, but of course Europe is a huge market)

The crisis started in the US but is worldwide, industrialized countries are so dependent from each others now that if the US economy happen to collapse you can expect a worldwide collapse. You won't be safer anywhere else.

I am quitting my job in 6 weeks to freelance. All this news about the recession is kinda freaky. The wheels are in motion and I am not turning back - recession or not (gulp!).

every depression since the big one has gotten milder. If you look at the actual numbers the people getting burned are the assholes who made idiot wagers on the housing market. The only thing that will make the recession worse is funding bailouts with taxpayer dollars while we're already in thehole for the war.

Is this Digg?

At what point do comparisons to Digg become more annoying than Digg itself?

I'd agree it's not even close to Hacker News per se, but this is a big enough deal I'd say it belongs.

The prediction of "a 1930s-like Great Depression" removes all credibility from the article. Why should I even continue to read after that?

While I believe there is no evidence that a "1930's-like Great Depression" is in the offing, I can't recall a crisis in US financial markets as significant as this since the 1930's. The comparisons are premature but not unfounded.

You can recall the 1930's? that is impressive ;)

my grandma can, but she does not have an account on hacker news. actually my great great grandfather made a fortune in the depression, well, immediately after it.

"a 1930s-like Great Depression" is a quote from an economist not a sensationalist spin put on the report by the journalist.

I agree it is an inapt comparison, but the article is a good read if you construe that phrase as "a really, really bad global recession" rather than an attention-grabbing historical reference.

But if true - will top hats be in fashion ? (or is my historical knowledge of fashion waaaay wrong). Could be a killer time to be in the top hat business.

/satire

I agree. Journalism shouldn't be about affecting the outcome of our subject. That's just what this and other crap that predicts the future does, it makes it that much more likely that it will happen. Financial markets are all about confidence, and if enough "journalists" predict this, it will happen. The ensuing panic will cause sell offs that will trigger a landslide.

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