This misses the point that all other types of engineering are regulated and licensed.
Certification does exist....it's not widely used or accepted because in most cases, companies want developers not engineers.
To add to it, the only thing stopping Software Engineers from becoming members of the above mentioned organizations is a code of ethics (and experience) - not knowledge or know-how.
That's an understatement. Was speaking to a fellow engineer recently, and he claimed that there are really only two licensed software engineers in all of Toronto. We probably have tens of thousands of software developers.
Apart from those two, I've yet to find even a reference for it (let alone a requirement) - which is a cycle because one of the requirements of being a PEO is 12 months of work experience under a PEO (which won't happen as there aren't enough PEOs - the chicken and egg problem).
It's incorrect to say an engineer can "become" a member of one of these organizations, because you're not legally an engineer until you are a certified member.
Perhaps we're just looking at a category of engineering that is not yet at that level of maturity.
I think engineering is less about adhering to regulations, and more about solving problems in a wider context.
Software is going to be regulated, licensed, and unionized within the next ten years. The main reason it's not currently is because the best practices have historically changed every couple years due to Moore's Law, but there is about to be an extended slowdown that will give the industry the time it needs to get its act together.
We just need to nail down some details: what jurisdiction(s) are we talking about? And what do you mean by licenced?: eg people without the licence won't be allowed to program computers?
What odds are you offering?
I am pretty confident, so I am happy to give you ten to one odds. Ie you pay me 1 dollar if no regulation&unionization happens, I pay you 10 if it does.
> What jurisdiction(s) are we talking about?
But to clarify, I'm talking about the U.S.
> And what do you mean by licenced?: eg people without the licence won't be allowed to program computers?
I think at least one of the big tech firms will be unionized within the next five years, with more following soon after. I think initially people already employed will be grandfathered in without any licensing requirements. But within a few years, I think folks are going to have to demonstrate basic knowledge of security principles in order to become union members.
I don't think you will need a certification to work in the industry in the immediate future, but I think that tech employers will have a clear choice in choosing between union and non union employees.
Interesting perspective you have. May I ask what makes you think so? Any current indications? What could go otherwise, and why? Do you see the beginning of these trends already?
I would be very surprised if any of the big American big tech companies (say, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon or any other company that rises to similar status in the next five years) will get unionised like you say.
There are already certificates available for employers to judge: be that university issued degrees or industry certificates like from Cisco or Microsoft. From all I can tell, the top employers don't care about them (and if anything, I have seen people scanning resumes react negatively to CVs claiming industry certifications). So current trends don't seem to point in your direction---as far as I can tell.
Basically there are already people quietly working on this, and when those efforts surface it's going to become apparent that it's in everyone's best interests to go along.
Unlike other industries, unionization in tech isn't going to be about negotiating salaries. Those are already good enough, and there is zero incentive for workers to organize around standardized wages.
Instead, tech workers are going to negotiate for things like longer periods to exercise their options after changing employers, and ownership over their side projects. And in exchange, my prediction is that management is going to negotiate for labor to become more self-policing to lower their costs of hiring and risk exposure.