DHH: Being at the right time at the right place is not the secret ingredient.
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Few people say their success was all luck, but many give it a bigger role than it deservers. It you are successful on a 10% play, it's easy to pass that off as luck. But if you made 10 plays like that, it's not really luck, now, is it?
Of course, sometimes the magnitude of the success is mostly luck.
If you decide to spend the next four years of your life making, say, appointment scheduling software (first thing that came to mind), that is a conscious choice not to go after a billion-dollar market, and right off the bat, the potential magnitude of your success is constrained.
- Jim Greco
I take it luck is more than the sum of its parts
opportunity = preparation - luck ?
Opp = Luck - Prep actually makes a bit of sense... it's the fortunate event component without the taking-advantage-of-it component.
They were indeed working their asses off in the right place at the right time.
Ability is a necessary ingredient. Luck gives you the initial break, and lets you set up a feedback loop of success. At least, this seems to be what I've observed.
Who knows how 37signals would have turned out without that 200k during its early years. This was 37signals big break, not saying it "made" 37signals, just saying that 200k obviously helps and luck was a factor. Source: a mixergy interview with JF.
Also, a LOT of entrepreneurs do stuff that minimizes their chances - not doing that allows any luck you might actually get to shine through.
Could you please give some examples of what you're referring to?
I find it easy to get wrapped up in this as an entrepreneur, and it took me a lot of time and energy to fight this inclination.
Basically, it's so easy to visualize mass adoption of your product and how your customers are going to benefit, you end up drinking your own Kool-Aid. Then, when trying to explain your product you get caught up and end up doing a poor job selling it to potential customers.
I think the best way to get over this this is to really listen to what the customers are saying. What works for them, what doesn't work for them, and then address these points. This means at times ignoring your visions and focusing on reality.
What's more, unlike coin flipping, money has memory. Having money makes it easier to get more. Capital provides interest income with no labor required, and more significantly, investors are much quicker to invest in someone with a track record.
Hard work and intelligence can buy you the opportunity and provide a good standard of living, but they alone cannot make you rich, at least not in the short time frames we tend to think in.
To recap: let’s emphasize the message that luck is bullshit and that it’s not necessary for success.
I read from it a combination of the two. In a rambling way it said that in order to even be eligible for an "outlier" outcome you needed to have done the 10k+ hours but that doing the 10k+ hours was not enough.
i.e. Skill & work is necessary but not sufficient to end up building an outlier result like Google/Apple/Facebook/Goldman Sachs etc.
I suspect this stems from some kind of ego factor in that when others succeed one wants it to be due to luck and not some factor that makes the other person "better" than they are, and that when others fail one wants it to be due to the other person being "worse" than they are.
Edit: I must admit that I've seen more and more of this on HN as its audience grows and changes, which is rather unfortunate. :(
he said it briefly toward the beginning - "sure, there is some of that" (referring to luck playing at least somewhat of a role in most success). most people seem to be in this camp.
The 'Catch the moment!' saying is a several thousands year old.