I've Changed My Mind About The iPad
avc.com
avc.com
This sums up my opinion on the iPad. It just makes casual consuming fun.
My wife still sings "Flash, ah-ah" to me every time we talk about it, but she's warming up to it. Watching Modern Family on the ABC app while snuggled together on the couch was a revelation for her.
We don't use it for everything, but the things we use it for sure are fun.
It doesn't replace my MBP, but neither did my smartphone.
I guess in couple of years Steve implements some new consumer device which complements the existing ones. He's so visionary.
Many of us are geeks here and buy gadgets just because they're shiny and new. But many normal people would rather get an easy to use laptop instead, or a "laptopised" dockable ipad.
To respond to the reactions though: What are their reactions really? Do they want iPad, or do they want an easy to use touchscreen device. Do they have any computer already, or is it their first? (I think we know the answer to that) Essentially - do they really want a specialised device for each of their activities and as which point will they say "that's enough - I just want something that integrates my N devices, like those old laptops".
I think people would buy a "laptopised" (as in - general purpose with full-featured modernised windows for example) dockable version of iPad and use it as their main computer in many cases. Not sure if that's what Apple wants - because now you can have both macbook and the ipad and ...
At the same time, this is why I always thought that we don't need another device, just a better way to output our smartphones to a larger screen.
Based on my empirical experience since my iPad was delivered April 3, most "normal" people want an iPad but are having trouble justifying the expense.
I think iPads will be the gift this Christmas. About 80% of my friends are planning to get one then.
(Specific subgroup)
That's an incomplete sampling of my universe of friends. A lot of my casual friends - the ones I haven't seen since February or earlier - I don't know one way or another, but I'd guess the rate would be lower among them.
The data's also tainted, since most of them had the iPad in hand when they made the statement. Anyway, what I really was trying to focus on is that if they purchase it, it will likely be at Christmas and as a gift.
As far as demographics, if you mean income, I don't really know. I'd guess $100K-$120K yearly income per family. Upper middle class, I guess. Folks that make enough money that their wives stay home with the kids. Not hurting for money, but $500 is still more than pocket change.
Edit: Almost forgot - some universities are already testing iPads as "give away to students" devices... Seriously, that's a path to another "Hand in as .doc file", only a thousand times more dangerous.
We've already got game consoles, handheld games, laptops, smart phones, music players, video players, etc. all basically targeted at the same general group of people. I'm waiting for the second wave of generalised devices now - I want only 2 of them: pocket player / communicator / game (apart from games, my N900 does a good job here for now), dockable general laptop.
:)
It's just a large iPod touch :/ There's nothing really new and 'wow' about it. If I did get one, the kids would use it to do painting on for a bit, then it'd get stuck up on a shelf gathering dust.
My 2.5 year old 1200$ PC has a 4 core 2.4 GHz CPU 4GB RAM, 750 GB HDD and a reasonable graphics card. I could buy a better PC for that price, but I am probably better off filling out new form factors than getting a minor upgrade. Think of how woodworkers end up with such a huge number of specialized tools. Their basic tools don't become outdated so rather than buying a slightly higher RPM band-saw they go for a tool that is really useful a small percentage of the time.
Smart phones are still undergoing fairly rapid development but it's slowing down and their average prices are already decreasing. So, expect to find the next niche soon. (PC)>(Laptop)>(Smart Phone)>iPad?>???
PS: The Smart Phone is the evolution and union of several fairly different device that shared the same form factor. They are really the union of a Cellphones + MP3 player + Game Boy + PDA + Digital Camera's + Wireless Modem, but you get a slightly worse version of each one. I could easily see a iPad type device that absorbs other things with it's form factor. Add a 10c infrared port and you get one of those touch screen style universal remotes. Or, add the right base station and they could be the brains behind a Wii style gaming system.
The difference is that a computer is a computer (whereas woodworking tools are not interchangeable). Some people (like me) only want one device, because if you use one computer for everything it becomes almost a part of you in a way that wouldn't be possible if you were continuously context-switching between multiple devices.
Right now I use a laptop for everything. When smartphones get good enough (real keyboard via bluetooth, built-in mini projector turning any flat surface into a screen), then I'll use one of those for everything and ditch the laptop.
Honest question: what could you do with a phone that had 10x as powerful CPU in it than the iPhone does that you couldn't do with a current smartphone?
Now chances are I am not going to want to start coding on the slopes, but I may want to double check a weather map check movie times etc. And the simple fact I keep my phone with me all the time means I use it for those casual questions. I could go to my car and boot the laptop, but because I have a more than one tool available I get more options and save time. Think of it in these terms, I rarely want to use GPS so I did not think buying a device would be worth it, but while slightly less useful than a dedicated device I am often really glad I can get basic GPS functionality on my phone.
PS: I don't have an iPad but I can see it could be vary useful.
When I'm -really- working, I want my dual monitors, wired LAN and an ergonomic chair. For me, it hasn't been yet -another- device.
I'm seriously considering an iPad as a replacement for my MBP. My primary usage of the laptop now is web browsing, email, and the occasional game, and it is a bit huge (I have a MacBook Air at work, so the old MBP feels heavy). The iPad would do all those things perfectly. For me it would be a laptop replacement.
With computers as cheap as they are and families usually owning several computers (kitchen or living room laptop or netbook, a few laptops or netbooks for the kids, desktop for the office and so on) I really fail to see how a device which can replace one or two laptops in such a household is a bad thing or one more thing to buy.
What does iPad do?
Films and TV Music iBooks Apps Web browsing Email
Only films and TV are better on your big, far away, non-touch, lower resolution TV. The rest are significantly worse or completely unavailable.
Television the only specific example in the post he was replying to, so that's probably what he was talking about. (Did you... nah, never mind.) Calling the ability to snuggle together on the couch while watching TV a "revelation" does indeed invite a challenge. Why? How? It isn't much of a discussion if I have to go buy an iPad myself to understand what people are talking about. (Why is it such a high-rated comment? Are people with iPads just endorsing the implication that its virtues can't be analyzed or described in any way?)
(Did you... nah, never mind.)
Apparently not.
In the past, I would have setup my laptop. I never considered that a hassle, but now I do. Also, the app itself was a cue. I probably wouldn't have thought to go to abc.com had I been on my laptop, which I primarily use for working rather than playing.
I am hereby up-voting your wife's sense of humour.
Not putting the rest of your points into question, I'm just going to guess that for the rest of the world not being the US, this thing will never happen and we will still need our dedicated servers/laptops and BT/Usenet apps and the commercial, "smooth", DRMed solutions will still be utterly useless.
I guess I'm still disappointed that what in I consider the "digital age" where the world should be one marked, one solution for everyone, every single big player still does everything in their power to create artificial barriers, restrictions and markets for some pipe dream that it might increase their (relevance and thus) profits.
I guess my monthly expenses will still remain at $0 for cable and $15 for usenet.
Now it lasts days and I use it more like a phone and a casual gaming device while I'm bored.
Bloggers should no better. It's too early to make statements about the impact of the iPad on computing. Let's see where we are in 6 months.
I'm not saying it will go one way or the other, but I imagine the hype will double with the 3G, then in a year we'll start seeing true reviews of how the iPad is used. I'm personally holding out for 3G.
EDIT: Somehow I missed that 3G is available, so I give it 6 months :)
I still find it very useful - I can now just "hand a web page" to my wife, it's great for having around in the living room for random web surfing on the couch, and yes, reading the news or doing a crossword while having a beer on my back patio.
I still can't type properly on the thing to save my life. I didn't realize just how awkward it is. I need to set it on a flat surface and type on it like a regular keyboard, and if I'm going to do that I'd prefer a laptop.
At first it's this completely super-cool thing and you wonder how you could live your life without it.
Then it just becomes a piece of stuff that you have to carry around because it does a couple of things better than all the other stuff you already carry around.
Same for many things - books are completely super-cool until you've read them and they just sit on a bookshelf most of the time.
At first, I liked it, but it still just felt like an MP3 player for books...the first time I really "got it" was when I was walking my dog one morning. I usually bring a bag with my that has a couple of tools in it (mountain bike habits die hard, I guess), as well as my kindle. I decided to stop near the lake and let my dog rest a bit. My friend had recently recommend that I read "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep", and I was considering riding up to the store and buying it when I realized that I already had it...in my bag, all I had to do was pay for it.
I booted the kindle, opened the kindle store, and was reading the book all in less than a minute. This is absolutely amazing to me because unlike my phone, or my laptop, or whatever other device I have that can read text, the kindle really really does feel like reading a book. It doesn't hurt by eyeballs, it doesn't get warm and feel strange in my hand, and the battery lasts for almost a month without charging.
Nothing about my kindle feels like it's getting in my way...this is pretty much exactly the opposite of my experience with every piece of apple product I have ever used (save for the early ipods...can you still sync them with amarok and gtkpod?).
I had an enthusiastic few weeks with it but after that it just seems to be sub-optimal for most of the use cases I have. I really dislike browsing the web on it, which is the main problem.
It's great for viewing photos but I just can't work with iTune's retarded methodology for putting them on there. It's nice for viewing videos but only at close range and then you have to hold it so it doesn't really work for me for movies. It is far too hard to type to be a practical device for email.
It's really interesting to watch how people's reactions to it change as they adapt to this "new" kind of device.
It looks awesome, it's thin and light as hell, fast (with an SSD harddisk), and from what I've read it even works well with Ubuntu.
However, I just know that after a few weeks of using it the romance period will be over and it'll just be this "thing" sitting on my desk.
So it will go with computers. (And also note, that expert/enthusiast flying and driving experiences are still readily available for those with the burning desire.)
Your analysis is flawed. See below.
the reason many people thought the iPad would fail is that it's less capable than its seeming competition.
Yes, but the smart money is on the capabilities of the iPad increasing over time. (In fact, we already know this to be true.)
Also note that the consumer-relevant increase in capabilities in cars and airplanes have been quantitative in specific metrics. (More reliable, able to go farther, faster, more efficiently.) The decrease in capability for the iPad was qualitative in terms of tweak-ability, flexibility, and accommodation of user expertise. Those are not the qualities that appeal to the mainstream user.
I'm sure a lot of people complained when automatics came out, because they're less flexible. (You can't push-start them, you can't easily rock them out of ditches, and there's less flexibility in terms of using compression braking.) The flexibility isn't what consumers really cared about.
There's no wrong or right here, just facts about different market segments. They exist. Deal with it.
Are people really as foolish as you think? I don't know. I hope not.
Enthusiast cars are still based around horsepower, handling, and the "joy of the ride", whereas modern cars are using increasingly smaller yet more efficient motors that, while not as exciting, get out of your way and still get you where you need to go.
For example, I bought a Hyundai Elantra back in 2001, and part of the weird appeal to me was that unlike a Honda Civic, there wouldn't be anyone interested in modifying something as pedestrian as an Elantra. Then I joined a Hyundai Elantra forum full of tinkerers - who take full advantage of the fact that Hyundai posts their searchable tech manuals online for free. Because of this open manual and enthusiast community surrounding a car that is unremarkable except in its longevity, I was able to change my own thermostat out, not to mention the dozens of minor suspension and interior tweaks I've made.
It's not that there's less joy in the ride, it's just a different kind of joy.
Making suspension and interior tweaks are not necessary for piloting your vehicle. Unfortunately, Windows Update and some level of technical sophistication is necessary for running the modern PC. You're arguing against your own point—you don't need technical expertise in any possible way to run and maintain your Hyundai. iPad is arguably one of the first computers to adopt this model.
In your reply, you say "you don't need technical expertise in any possible way to run and maintain your Hyundai" - given that I take my car to a garage for maintenance and oil changes, that's not at all true.
A bad analogy is like a fish.
The single purpose served by a computer is so abstract that it's not even worth mentioning here. Practically, computers serve hundreds of different purposes, and that is why the analogy fails.
Regardless, I think the analogy still makes sense.
The argument is that usability matters more than capability and that's why the iPad will ultimately win the mainstream. In mainstream use, computers simply have more diverse capability than cars.
(note that this is NOT the case with mobile phones-- while mobile phones have diverse capability and people use them for lots of different things, if all you could do was make calls, send text, email, use GPS and do basic web browsing people would still buy them)
The success of the iPod and the Flip Video camera seems to demonstrate that mainstream consumers prefer usability to capability.
The iPod wasn't the most capable MP3 player when it came out. But Flip Video is an even more dramatic example. An unknown company came out of nowhere and captured 13% of the video camera market in 6 months. And they were competing against Sony and Canon and Panasonic, some big, well established players. The first Flip had 6 buttons and no onscreen menus. Just 7 features (one button handled zoom while recording and volume during playback). The competition had at least twice as many features.
The long tail of what a computer can do is infinitely longer than the long tail of features on a camera. Maybe you're an architect and use CAD software, maybe you're a composer and need software that works with your synthesizers, maybe you're a scientist and use a bunch of customized development tools for research, maybe you play high-end video games, maybe you design playbills, maybe you're just a car enthusiast and use different CAD software from the architect I already mentioned. The list goes on.
PCs are incredibly flexible in this way. A device that can't do the one thing you need it to do won't get bought. On cameras, usually the one thing is just: take nice pictures. If the one thing you really need a PC for isn't available from the App Store, usability doesn't matter at all.
As technologies mature they become more simple and elegant not more complex and capable. The problem is that it's a pass/fail test. There is a small difference between something simple and something useless.
IMHO, the future is dockable smartphones. Tablets may be a milestone on that path.
Wait, what?
I got an iPad instead of a netbook because I thought it'd be easier for my non-technical wife (my 3 year old daughter showed her how to use it).
I like to cook and frequently adapt recipes I find online; I don't like to bring the laptop into the kitchen because it takes up too much space, and because of the risk of spills. The iPad could be mounted on the face of a cupboard or propped up on a stand to minimize risk of damage, while having everything I need close at hand.
Also, when we remodeled our kitchen two years ago, the showrooms all included kitchen computers.
I'm not rich, either. My neighbors are mostly rank-and-file government employees or servicemen on assignment at the Pentagon. But kitchen computers are a de-facto standard.
What are they typically being used for - just recepies? Or also browsing while having a morning coffee?
I would like to use it not only for recipes, but also calenders and email, as well as seeing the weather and the news and maybe checking Facebook and the like. For me, not sitting down in my office just to check the weather or morning traffic helps to prevent me from accidentally living my life in the office.
I'm sure every family is different, but a kitchen computer is a computer in the kitchen that you use when you are there and need access to a computer. Email, Google, surf, Youtube. Who knows, you might even look at a recipe and or play a game while cookies cool on the counter ...
- as primary email device for the stay-at-home parent
- for recipes and online shopping
- for playing music
- for looking at family photos
- for Skype/iChatMissing multitasking. Need To keep Pandora running. My only disappointment.
I am really interested in a sort of family computer device, that would display calendar for everyone, shopping lists, and so on (a bit like the Weasley's Wall Clock in Harry Potter perhaps - family dashboard?). Only I am hoping for something cheaper than the iPad.
While I kind of hate Apple, I have recently considered getting an iPad after all, just for reading websites and API docs. Thinking I might be able to avoid having to get a standing desk, and instead try to pace around with the iPad whenever I need to read stuff online.
So far I don't even have a kitchen computer, btw. It hasn't bothered me that much. On the rare occasion I want to cook by recepy, I either print it or I have a paper book.
They even advertise it as "your new fridge door".
I think there is/could be a market for this kind of thing.
Some cheap universal replacements might be an iPod Touch (though rather small and expensive at 200 bucks) or that open source hardware thingy whose name I can't remember - I think it's about 100 bucks? But rather bulky.
Edit: Forgot "magical".
Fast forward to today and they've lost that vibe. I'm kinda feeling like the iPad will also lose that after people get used to the 'newness' of the form factor.
In fact, laptops probably became stressful to people just because having a laptop meant you could work--and were expected to work--whether you were at the park, on a flight, on the train, or wherever. An iPad is explicitly unsuited for serious business, therefore it won't be expected to use it for serious business.
Now, I often use my laptop _as_ my desktop computer; hook it up to a larger monitor, mouse, an external keyboard, stereo/video/telescope/interociter/history eraser button/etc. But that doesn't mean that my laptop experience isn't casual when I plop down on the couch, sans accoutrements, and surf hacker news, listen to music, or watch a movie.
And the iPad is more casual still. And the fact that I _can't_ do many things that are not casual may help to keep it casual. Maybe not...
(And for the record, just carry the iPad into the "little room down the hall" for the _ultimate_ in casual computing...)
If it doesn't deliver on experience people will not buy it in the first place (because no one will be talking about it) or they will return it. I don't care how many features you pack into a device, if I don't smile while using it it's a failure.
THIS is what is supposed to be the future of computing, the device that will replace the desktop and laptop for the masses ? Job's full of it. The future of computing is a future where you can't even share your own data with your friends and where the manufacturer has a say on everything you do, even the installation of apps and what country you're in ? There is a reason why lots of people feel much stronger hate toward Apple than anyone ever did to Microsoft. I sincerely hope that the iPad will tank after the first generation and gets rolled over by Android, WebOS and whatever is in the work at MS. This device HAS to die or it will inspire a new era of madness if its model gets successful enough to be copied by everyone else. Microsoft is already joining in the crazy with the Windows Phone 7 that restricts you to its app market with no standalone app installation even though Windows Mobile used to stand for freedom.
Highlights:
- Great music apps (drum machines, synths, etc.)
- Solid battery life
Frustrations:
- Not sure why the app store exits right after you install a new app
- Safari crashes often
It's a brilliant marketing idea. I'll probably stick to my laptop and paper notes, but I guess I, like everyone, have some sort of dream of a future where we have fancy computer screens everywhere. Kitchen computers, robo-butlers (or a disembodied mildly sarcastic voice with a British accent answering your questions), projectors projecting the next recipe on your kitchen cupboard, fridges keeping tally of your shopping list, you name it.
The response was out of all proportion. Users liked it so much, talked about 'latency' and 'improved workflow' (none of the software had changed, only the boot time). There is no doubt that startup time is a significant contributing factor to the way users respond to applications/devices.
I was musing over all this with a co-worker who expressed no surprise, and told me a story how, back in the 90s, he got a similar response from his users by simply removing the splash screen. Not even reducing startup time. He said people were waiting for the splash screen and when the main window opened, they thought it must have started so quickly they missed it.
There are the ridiculous app store policies (which is a HUGE problem) but there are also little things. For instance, have you ever tried to use an iPhone in bed? I keep mine sitting next to my pillow so that I can listen to music while I fall asleep...
Doing this is a huge pain in the butt. If you turn the thing sideways to change songs, it goes into the oh-so-useless "cover flow" interface. If I'm browsing the web, the phone decides that it should rotate the screen for me...
These things are fixed...but only if you void your warrant and jailbreak it...why? Honestly, the only thing I can come up with is that it is some stupid power trip by the folks at apple... "Bah! We designed it that way and we're never wrong!" JUST EFFING FIX THIS GUYS! It's a very very common problem.
I was traveling last week...my laptop's battery needs very badly to be replaced (only holds about a half hour of charge anymore), so I decided to transfer some podcasts to my phone so I could listen to them on the plane...now, this isn't as simple as most of the blackberries I've ever owned (the blackberries, if you're not aware, simply get mounted as an external storage device...copy and paste MP3s to it and it will happily play them for you), but firing up iTunes should be too much a problem, right?
Wrong. iTunes refuses to add songs to the device unless I erase everything on it and "sync" it to my laptop. WTF? Apple, this is completely unnecessary! So I lose everything on my iPhone in order to listen to a couple of podcasts? What the hell, Apple.
Okay, howabout email syncing? 4 times an hour at the most. Seriously? The phone is absolutely capable of more than this! So it will hurt the battery a bit more, I don't care! Warn me about it when I select "check email 1 time per minute".
Don't even get me started on Google voice (which I use as my primary phone number and voicemail)...
And then there is flash...
Oh, and howabout the newest version of their iPod? You cannot disable having album artwork take over half of your screen? Why the hell not?! These just seems like more power-tripping my Apple/Jobs.
I've played with the iPad (while I was waiting in the apple store for three hours for my appointment with the "genius bar"), it seems...kindof neat I guess? But apple leaves such a sour taste in my mouth from the experiences I've had with the iPhone that I cannot imagine myself ever buying one.
Why should I have to pay an extra fee to apple (mobile me) or microsoft (exchange) in order to get basic functionality?
What has "should" got to do with anything at all?
Email syncing is pretty straightforward, push the button to sync.
Most of your complaints seem pretty benign if you ask me.
Basically "We're right, we don't care about your problems, piss off."
Why can't I get the same sort of rotation lock for my iPhone? (well, I can, but it was something that was made by the community and something that will void my iPhone's warranty [which is funny because I am literally on hold right now with the apple store to make another appointment with the "genius bar" because the phone is currently only displaying a white screen])
That's always the case with usability things, isn't it? The problem is that on the iPhone you can't fix them.
for all the reasons you cite and more
Other limitations Apple puts on their devices come in second. I'm a very technical person. I would be happier having another gadget with Linux on it.
Not saying it's useless, but it is far less used than I expected.
http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2010/05/open-android-vs-clos...
and we use macs in our house so the initial connection was on a mac.
Me, too.
Another way to look at it is, I've been convinced by marketing and countless articles on HN telling me how amazing this new gadget is that I went and bought one.
Now I need to find a place it fits in my life and convince myself it's something I didn't know I needed and that I didn't waste my money.
I've only owned it for a week but I'm sure that a year from now I'll still love it because it's a great product, not because it's new and shiny.
1. put 'ipad' in title
2. write some random thoughts, don't matter if you like it or not, if they are even technical or just stories about posting while sitting on the can.
3. ...
4. profit!
I suspect he derives money indirectly from his blog - for example, by securing himself as an authority on tech investing in an industry where reputation is quite important.
that is one of many reasons the AVC blog is extremely valuable to me
but it is not the only one
Basically, the early adopters have now bought their iPads and are sitting in the terrace with a glass of wine reading emails. It's fun, but it's not "this changes everything", it's "this gadget is so cool".
The former I'm not sure about, the latter, quite possibly. My thinking is that if I were running the IT department in a manufacturing firm looking for ways to bring these devices into my factories, I'd be giving preference to touch-oriented web apps rather than iDevice applications specifically. You retain a bunch of advantages of web apps -- easier and simpler deployments, generally faster development, more choice of languages -- and once the Android tablets start to hit, you avoid locking yourself into a single supplier.
Real time plant floor control/monitoring is not an unsolved problem and an iPad/tablet accessible web app was not the solution. See page 12 of the link below[1] for an example of what industry really works with. In some applications seconds can cost thousands of dollars, a limb or even a life. I'd never leave that up to a web browsers JavaScript engine.
[1] http://www.automation.siemens.com/salesmaterial-as/brochure/...
Sorry, Ryan! Here's a $5 iTunes gift card!
I do not understand this fixation people have with the iPad mattering to manufacturing/warehousing people. We have solved this problem many many many many times over. Intermec, Symbol, Zebra, and Toughbook are the name of the game, have been for 15 years, and will be for the foreseeable future. If I can't drop the device from 4 feet onto a concrete warehouse floor or parking lot over and over and over and over again, all day, every day...then it is useless to me and nearly everybody else in the manufacturing/warehousing industry.
If apple pulls the stick out of their butt about user-replaceable batteries, opens the thing from a technical standpoint, and builds a rugged version of it...then maybe (hey, they could call it a toughbook!), until then, it's going to remain something that hip kids with more money than sense show to their friends and something that technophiles use to read their email while sitting on their terrace and drinking wine.
i said "i've changed my mind"
i thought it was pretty useless at first.
now i'd rather use it than my macbook
i thought was worth sharing