I think it's not always a good gamble. Sometimes what they initially gamble on transforms into something they would not expect or consider as an investment. For the few success stories we hear, we never hear of the countless failures. The idea of most startups achieving some successful status is a faulty generalization. You are cherry picking the successful startups and generalizing based on survivorship bias.

This happens to all of us and it is hard to truly reflect on what makes a successful startup. If there was a recipe we would hear of many successes, frankly investments would stop elsewhere and just concentrate on startups, if that was the case.

Whenever I hear of crazy returns, I try to reflect on the fact that if it was common, why wouldn't those who make such crazy returns not just borrow more money and wash, rinse, repeat. I think there is a point were those making such returns realize the success was due to mere chance or some other combination of timing, investment, people that could not exist again. There is also a point where you have to wonder why those making such great returns do not keep trying to do the same. There must be a level where crazy profits/returns would allow some self sustaining regenerative business. I think that level does not exist. When investors do think such a level exists, they are usually being swindled.