How Nasty Gal Went from an $85M Company to Bankruptcy
news.morningstar.com
news.morningstar.com
"For the year ended January 31, 2015, the Debtor reported revenues of approximately $85.0 million, gross profit of approximately $34.0 million and EBITDA of negative $6.3 million. For the year ended January 30, 2016, the Debtor reported net revenues of approximately $77.1 million, gross profit of approximately $22.8 million and EBITDA of negative $15.4 million. Through August, 2016, the Debtor has reported revenue of approximately $41.1 million, gross profit of approximately $17.7 million and EBITDA of negative $3.3 million.
The Debtor projects that, for the year ending January 27, 2017, it will generate net revenue of $77.0 million, gross profit of $33.3 million and EBITDA of negative $1.4 million."
[1] https://pdf.inforuptcy.com/pacer/cacbke/1768567/dockets/4/1-...
EBITDA = Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization
For example, consider this chart of Amazon's revenue versus profit:
http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/56abe654c08a80431d8...
By revenue, Amazon's $136bn company, which I think gives a useful measure of their size. But their profit has always been relatively small, and in many quarters it was negative. Why? Because they think they have better things to do with the money than putting in the bank and/or giving it back to investors.
I think it's an especially good measure here because potential acquirers are going to start with revenue when figuring whether looking into Nasty Gal is worth their time. The mentioned competitor, Boohoo, has revenues circa $240m. So a fire-sale acquisition would be an opportunity to increase sales by circa a third, skipping a lot of the hard work of finding new customers. There are obviously plenty of complications, but it's a good first cut.
Revenue means nothing if you can't flip the profit switch.
Prioritizing profit early on could mean less reinvestment, slower growth, and ultimately less dominance of an industry (or a smaller industry).
Depends on your risk appetite. For many investors, the biggest cost is how much of their time it takes for a projected possible payout.
It's a different argument that people aren't accurately evaluating the inputs. But to hyperbolically state one is vanity, the other sanity, reflects but one perspective.
In the long run, revenue means satisfied customers. That is the economic purpose of business: to create value for others. Yes, you need to do that sustainably, which means giving your investors a decent return. But you'll never make real long-term profits without creating value and taking in revenue.
My own theory is that toxic culture is a drain on every company with one, like a parasite on a host organism. Sometimes the host is strong enough to survive, sometimes it isn't.
I've worked for toxic tech and toxic finance companies. In both cases I felt that poor decisions were made that a healthier culture could have avoided.
I'm not sure that's true. At least with Uber, it's pretty well-understood that they are successful despite their toxic culture. And that's mostly because they have received billions from VCs, which does a great job shielding them from the consequences of bad decisions such as harboring and protecting sexual harassers at the corporate level.
It may be that, in at least some industries, ruthless aggression is a financially advantageous attitude. Investment banking comes to mind.
If we want to change culture, it has to be for reasons other than money. The Pyramids were a phenomenal project that we couldn't realistically replicate today (due to costs), but I'm okay sacrificing that for not using slave labor. Speaking of which, the American South was an economic powerhouse with a culture of slavery and brutality (in large part because of it, not despite it.)
I think that's what a lot of people are grappling with in Silicon Valley. We want to have a positive, inclusive culture and also build massive companies. People rarely talk about what happens if you can only choose one. The reality of taking venture funding is that you are expected to do the latter, with the former a nice to have.
(You can read my comment history to see that I'm strongly against these types of culture.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_pyramid_construction_...
from the wiki page: In addition to the many unresolved arguments about the construction techniques, there have been disagreements as to the kind of workforce used. The Greeks, many years after the event, believed that the pyramids must have been built by slave labor. Archaeologists now believe that the Great Pyramid of Giza (at least) was built by tens of thousands of skilled workers who camped near the pyramids and worked for a salary or as a form of tax payment (levy) until the construction was completed, pointing to workers' cemeteries discovered in 1990 by archaeologists Zahi Hawass and Mark Lehner. For the Middle Kingdom Pyramid of Amenemhat II, there is evidence from the annal stone of the king that foreigners from Palestine were used.[1]
Couple points. You can be both a skilled worker and a slave. Also, if you are working to pay off a tax debt, that pretty much makes you an indentured servant or slave.
I don't know what you're defining as "toxic", but I've found that the worst companies I've worked for have been very "positive attitude", process-heavy, and diverse, and made a lot of bad decisions because no-one wanted to call them out as bad. The better companies I've experienced have a kind of skeptical, even caustic, culture that lets bad ideas get shot down quickly.
>The major problems of our work are not so much technological as sociological in nature.
The issue with taking on VC capital is that you need to be in control of how you spend that money, and if you don't need it, then don't take it.
There are also challenges with any business in crossing the chasm. Selling to more customers, or a different set of customers is akin to searching for product market fit a second time and is tricky like the first.
The underlying business fundamentals are also critical.
A great example of a company taking on VC money but growing slowly and methodically is Github. They raised their Series A well after they had established significant revenue and were already profitable for many years.
Though they did get into an extravagent office that was largely unnecessary but they used the extra funds to double down on their own infrastructure and to expand github into the Enterprise. This shift to the enterprise was about finding product market fit with a different set of customers and also about updating the company culture.
But luckily they had revenue, profit, and great advisors to hep them navigate the turbulent waters which allowed them to grow but not crumble under their own weight.
It looks like Nasty Gal just did too many things at once. Moving to manufacturing, warehousing, retail brick and mortar stores, staffing up the company with senior hires that probably weren't a culture and product fit.
One of these errors is costly enough but taken together we now see the results.
Had they instead grown more organically, focused on what was working and double down they could have taken on significantly less money, continued to grow, and still be in business today.
But of course all analysis is easy from the sidelines and the inside story is rarely told.
None the less for a business to be bootstrapped and survive so many years it had to be profitable, then you take on VC money and it falls apart the overall theme is clear.
That's not an indictment on VC money either, because Google, Facebook, Snap, Twitter, Apple, all wouldn't be here without it.
When the parent writes:
> A great example of a company taking on VC money
VC can stand for "venture capitalist" in that context. So "VC money" equating to venture capitalist money, would in fact be a proper use.
Further, venture capital is a specific type of money. One could also correctly say: bond money, debt money, home equity money, (the) bank loan money, among others and they act as an elaboration of the type of money in question as all context of money is not the same. If I say: the bank loan, that's not necessarily the same as: the bank loan money. The same can be true for venture capital. If I say: the venture capital (eg: we need to discuss the venture capital situation), it can mean the broader arrangement (such as the VC terms) or situation of fund raising, rather than being about the venture capital cash specifically.
I think this is because "VC" is only one type of investment, and for other similar forms of investment the phrase is nonsensical. For example, PE means "Private Equity" but you can't say "I took PE." (Equity means ownership, and taking money from an investor means giving up ownership, not taking it.) "I took VC" is basically abusing the dual meaning of "Capital" as the thing an investor provides in exchange for equity and the thing a business uses to operate.
In the middle ages, when literacy (and therefore large vocabularies) were uncommon, it was considered good form to include three redundant synonyms or phrases all in a row, creating emphasis, giving the reader the best chance of understanding the writer correctly, and demonstrating that the author understood his language well and probably meant what he was saying. (Not "she" so much, then.)
It's now considered good form in technical writing to start with examples or present them as soon as possible, but examples are, by definition, semantically redundant. Should we axe them all? Absolutely not, since that would greatly slow, and sometimes prevent, comprehension.
These days, I read cash flow, income and balance statements in the thousands per year.
(We all have our little pet peeves :-)
By my read they tried to do the kind of high-growth strategy that benefits other kinds of online businesses, but routinely kills retail, what I internalize as "the Boston Market problem." They opened two stores while also ramping up manufacturing, while finding new designs, and having an inexperienced CEO, and so on.
$40MM should have been enough to create a decent sustaining business, but maybe they thought they'd get acquired? That part isn't mentioned, natch: "what were the actual goals of all this?"
It sounds very much like the parent is running a business model very similar to the "one last draw" model Warren Buffet was so successful with earlier in his career.
It might make a lot of sense for the right type of investor, too. The growth won't likely be there in the long term (minus an unlikely resurgence), but revenue will come early, meaning a fast if limited return.
I'd be interested to know what kind of revenue Nasty Gal is doing now, obviously it's not anything like $85m on a price of $20m.
Selling $85MM in 2014 is nifty, but fashion industry is hard. Average EBITA is maybe 10%: http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/the-s... to realize how brutal it is.
Let's piece this together...
She had 280 FTE at 2013 and got into a lease for 500k sqft warehouse: http://www.inc.com/30under30/donna-fenn/nasty-gal-sophia-amo...
At ~$60k/yr avg and we'll pretend a killer deal on the space at ~$30/sqft, half off the avg ask that year in KY http://www.loopnet.com/Louisville_Kentucky_Market-Trends, her bill was probably $31.8MM.
She also got into manufacturing. And with how much she was willing to spend, I would imagine she threw maybe $1MM here and $1MM there for that. Probably another few millions on the two B&M.
Boom, that's $40MM gone, just like that.
Smart VCs don't invest in ecommerce. The investors bought into Sophia Amoruso's narrative. The second she took the money she had to spend the money so can't blame her for that.
That warehouse must have been albatross around the neck. She thought they could repeat the $85MM high score but clearly that didn't happen; they never mentioned revenue numbers ever again.
Next year she asked for another $24MM, prob to cover for the lease and half the head count. But again, another bad year.
All the while she got distracted writing her vanity book, going on her vanity tour, rationalizing what's good for her must be good for the brand.
So 3 years in they lost $64MM just like that chasing after the dragon.
Crazy ride.
Who's got next?
It goes for around $5-$6/SF annually.
Also, as a comparable, I'm checking out this:
https://www.houston.org/newgen/17_Commercial_Real_Estate/17C...
San Francisco (highest I could find) - is $34.32/sq foot/annually. So, applying your rule, one would pay $34/sq/foot/month. So - a typical 1500 square foot commercial office would be $51,000/month? Seems high even for San Francisco. If we instead divided by 12, $2.86/sf/month, then $4300/month for 1500 square feet seems within the realm of reason.
How certain are you that these rates are already converted into monthly values?
I found one monthly rate for Kentucky, 2,500 - 8,432 SF, $1,016 - 5,578 (Monthly).
That would be $0.40/month - $0.66/month, or, multiplied by 12, $4.80-$8/year. Right within the expected range.
http://www.kcrea.com/listing/29969851/9101-Minor-Ln-Louisvil...
324,730 sq feet. $3.95 PSF/Annual or $106,890/month.
$106,890 * 12 = $1,282,680/year / 324730 sq feet = $3.95/year/sq foot.
And you get 35 Docks on 21 acres to boot.
Profit is much easier to adjust in accounting terms, by delaying or advancing liabilities from the future. A common example is, if you are going to post a loss for the quarter, go ahead and throw every possible expense you can on it so that next quarter will look much better.
I recommend How to Read a Financial Report by John Tracey.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/1118735846/ref=dbs_a_w_dp_111...
An infamous example of this is "Hollywood accounting" [0], whereby major studios spin off independent LLCs for each film project they pursue, charge these LLCs exorbitant fees for marketing, distribution, etc., and then the LLCs never post a profit. As I understand it, such structures have been used on some of the most successful film franchises of all time, including Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter. This tactic is commonly believed to be a mechanism to avoid paying royalties.
That's actually quite incorrect. The way you recognize revenue and the timelines over which you recognize them are different.
Two example. One is groupon, another is more universally applicable.
So for Groupon, if you as a customer pay 10 dollars, groupon gets 5 dollars and the merchant gets 5 dollars. Groupon was recognizing 10 dollars as revenue and five dollars as cost, even though it knew it would have to pay out the 5 dollars immediately. It could have just booked 5 dollars as revenue, but chose to book 10 dollars as revenue and 5 dollars as a cost, because it made its revenue growth more impressive. (https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/groupon-changes-its-...).
Another example is recognizing recurring revenue. If you sign a deal for a maintenance contract for 200 bucks over 2 years, you could recognize 25 dollars every quarter, or 200 bucks in the first quarter and none for the rest.
In summary, revenue is far from absolute and can be played with like profit.
Sadly nothing is that absolute. Plenty of revenue scandals out there.
A typical example of this: a large supermarket hasn't made enough money for the year, and asks its suppliers to book future sales that (very likely) will come next year as real sales now. The suppliers do this, and actually pay up, because they want to stay on good terms with the big supermarket. So the supermarket has the "absolute revenue" now, but has a hidden liability behind it.
It's not theoretical:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37536538
"Auditors found that the inflated profit figure was the result of Tesco booking payments from suppliers before the company had been due the money."
I thought they got paid by customers and they paid suppliers.
It happens more often than you think! That's why - in the long run - profits matters more than revenue.
Of course in a land-grab situation the normal rules of gravity may not apply, but most businesses are not operating in a land-grab.
I have to say though, boohoo.com quite clearly capitalises on boo's branding and history.
In fact, if I'm not mistaken it originally mimicked the typeface and name of Ernst Malmsten's book about the boo.com story, which is kind of ironic given the circumstances.
Book:
http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTPf1rQbytroVo7SYUhV...
Boohoo logo (now):
http://www.boohoo.com/content/ebiz/boohoo/resources/images/l...
(To be fair, Boohoo have altered their branding over time but the similarities are still recognisable I think?).
> "Nasty Gal preparing to sell its brand name and other intellectual property for $20 million"
Was any remaining inventory included? Were the social network accounts included?... It's hard to judge a $20mm deal without knowing more info. But $20mm buys a lot of ads and other marketing campaigns. Also brands that target more specific age groups often have their brand name goodwill overvalued when bought. These companies must introduce themselves to a new younger batch of customers at a much higher cycle rate, which is hard to calculate for younger companies. There is a price for a brand name and a large instagram following, but $20mm (about a dollar per instagram follower for Nasty Gal) sounds very high.
In an e-commerce business, the brand, url, and email list are the most valuable assets. Email lists are super fucking valuable, because emails convert to sales very well. No inventory was included in the deal.
BooHoo is basically going to use their existing supply and fulfillment channels to sell their inventory on NastyGal.com. Basically NG, will just be a front more boohoo.com inventory.
(File under sama's warning about founders falling in love with personal press? http://blog.samaltman.com/the-post-yc-slump)
Basically, Nasty Gal made a string of horrible investments, one after another, which makes one wonder if they were trying to fail. Lots went wrong, but I'll cover the stuff that hasn't been reported.... First they tried to raise their average price point from $60 to like $400. They started off selling cheap crap from asia (think F21), but then when Sheree Waterson from Lululemon came onboard, she convinced Sophia they could follow the Lululemon model and charge insane prices for clothes. (Keep in mind Waterson was a failed exec from Lululemon that joined NG after being fired from Lululemon so she had her own issues) That idea failed and NG alienated customers, while also having a lot of inventory they could sell on hand. Huge loss of capital on that idea.
Second, Sophia Amoruso became increasingly obsessed with building a "cult of personality" around herself and using that to sell clothes. Amoruso would regularly commandeer NG's customer mailing list to send out mailers about herself and what she was up to. These emails would result in the highest unsubscribe rates. NG, like a lot of online retailers, lived and died by their weekly emails. Then she decided she had to write a book, so she spent around $500,000 of company money on a ghost writer and marketing for the book. She had a publisher, but the publisher only picked her up because Amoruso was paying all the costs to publish out of the NG's pocket. Amoruso, again use the company mailing list to promote the book, which resulted in a lot of unsubs.
Amoruso basically bet that women would buy her clothes if they identified with her story, so she doubled down on building her cult of personality and plastered her face and story all over Nasty Gal. There was some degree of success for Amoruso in the form of fame, but this did NOT result in an increase of sales to the company. Essentially, Amoruso traded company revenue, for personal fame.
Thirdly, there were frequent and arbitrary layoffs at NG which killed moral. If Amoruso didn't like a how a project was going, she would fire the whole team. This lead to lawsuits and Nasty Gal has had deal with at least 5-10 different plaintiffs claiming wrongful termination. Many of these settled out of court for a good sum of money. Some of the fired women were pregnant and they accused Amoruso of firing them for actually being pregnant. They had enough of a claim that Amoruso had to settle with them out of court.
Fourthly, going back to Amoruso's vanity... She became obsessed with building a lavash office in downtown Los Angeles. She spent about $10-20M on a beautiful, but very expensive office. This came back to bite them later.
Lastly, Nasty Gal was continuing to generate money, about $70M a year according the bankruptcy docs, but they were still losing money on that. They still had a big email list that they built up years prior, so that kept them selling. They had to take out what basically amounted to a 'shark loan' from Hercules Capital to stay afloat. About $10MM in 2014. After they failed to right the ship, Hercules basically forced them into bankruptcy and that's why they are where they are now.
Any idea how involved she was with the TV show as well? That had to be distracting: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5706996/
Basically, Amoruso checked out around 2015 to focus entirely on her own girlboss brand and promoting her book. She was/is totally obsessed with maker herself a celebrity.
She fired an employee because the employee had heart surgery and cost the company money [0]
She has had DUIs, but has paid a publicist (out of the company dime) to bury that information.
She hasn't been paying her suppliers, which is causing a couple companies to go bankrupt as well. (see bankruptcy docs)
Oh and you should see the way she treats the waitstaff a restaurant...
[0] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3327240/Fashion-e-...
Moreover, very surprised Index Ventures poured $40M into this company. What were the reasons that motivated such a sizeable investment?
When Index Ventures came along NG was profitable and their growth was impressive, therefore NG negotiated very favorable terms since they were well in the black. That said, Index was the only VC firm willing to make that investment. No other firms participated. Later on, all other venture capital NG received was in the form of very high interest, high risk loans.
The problem was that when Amoruso got the money, she mismanaged that power and made horrible investments (she also pocked a lot of the investment from Index, buying a $5MM home, Porsches, and other luxury goods). She tried to shift away from what had made NG money in the first place, to high-risk vanity projects.
It's really upsetting to read about this kind of story. It seems that once the money poured in she completely lost it and thought she was the new Cleopatra. Money corrupts...
In unrelated news, Nasty Gal seems to be running a 70% off everything sale right now to dump inventory.
But for online catalogs, the retailer doesn't control the color accuracy of the customer's computer or phone screen, so most of the time, the customer won't see the accurate colors anyway. So why bother?
Go to the Salvation Army sometime, where they often sort clothes by color, and you will particularly notice that almost everything red is made with the exact same dye.
If you're like me and wear pretty much the same thing everyday bought from thrift stores (excepting underwear), it can really open your eyes. Women do, generally speaking, all look better than men. I probably spend too much on outerware, but I save on clothes because I just don't care.
As an anecdote, one of the baristas at my coffee shop said a ski pass at our closest resort (I'm in the Rockies) was too expensive while wearing, what I thought to be, fancy clothes. After 9 months of interaction, I've concluded her clothes budget would cover 3 ski passes. My parents taught me to value experiences over material goods, and I'm very thankful for that.
After reading the article, this movie version had the same issues as this real life founder.
If only she had watched the movie about herself maybe she wouldn't have bankrupted herself.
Also, I've been getting around the paywall from Washington Post and NY Times etc. by right clicking on an article I know comes from their site and selecting 'Open in Incognito Window' in Chrome. The lack of cookie tracking gives me infinite free article previews.
(Yes, I do feel a little guilty about this and will pay for a subscription to one or both papers to support them sometime soon). :)
update: just checked on a whim and it seems that some time over the last couple of years Private Eye have a completely new online portal. Time to put my money where my mouth is :)
Depends on how much they value that google traffic, since google doesn't like being tricked into fake search results.