Around 4. A bit like taking a selfie on a train track, or walking along the edge of a sky scraper - most likely nothing is going to happen, but if, the consequences could be severe.
Turbulences injure people all the time, see [1].
Also, commercial aviation is as incredibly safe as it is because everyone follows the rules. If you start neglecting them because everything is happy and dandy nearly always, you are contributing to the next accident.
It is this creeping "normalisation of deviance" that has to be fought.
Note that generally I agree with the notion that we might exaggerate with safety - I'm all for letting children play, for example. But here we are dealing with potentially deadly consequences, and not only for yourself, but for others.
Let me conclude with a great quote:
> "Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect."
— Captain A. G. Lamplugh, British Aviation Insurance Group, London. 1930's
[1] http://avherald.com/h?search_term=turbulence+injures&opt=0&d...