> On the more potent point, almost(?) all of the more potent opioids are derivatives of fentanyl and iirc use fentanyl in the synthesis so probably won't become a street drug.
You're alas wrong here. There's already derivatives of fentanyl being made illicitly and appearing in the illicit drugs markets. Not just any analogues of fent either -- there's been carfentanil (an opioid so potent that it's been successfully used as a chemical weapon) in product sold as heroin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carfentanil
> Honestly I'm suprised fentanyl is a thing because the active dose is like tens of micrograms and requires expensive equipment to measure safely
Ah, but a tiny active dose means that for a given quantity of raw material, lots of (very diluted) doses for end users can be made. This is the deadly "iron law of prohibition" at work here -- the harder the enforcement, the more potent the drugs.
For a unit volume (so, for a unit risk of ending up in a concrete box) of uncut/active material, you want to be able to sell the most diluted/cut doses to end-users. Of course people will want their chemist to synthesise carfentanil (over regular fentanyl), because you can supply the the same number of end-user doses with 10,000 times less active material.