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It is certainly possible that Microsoft could turn around, but I doubt it: they have a huge cash reserve, yes but that is not going to make them relevant.

What would be interesting would be if they got an entire new board + CEO, Steve Ballmer isn't ready to lead and never will be.

The winner of the previous type of computing doesn't seem to transition to the next one very well (ex. Mini Computer -> PC).

Microsoft will be 3.5 years late to the smartphone party when windows phone 7 series will eventually be released. People would have already made their choice between iPhone and Android.

Apple will be 5 years late to the _smartphone_ party when the iPhone will eventually be released. People would have already made their choice between Blackberry and Nokia.