That supports the commentators point of view.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=da&tl=en&u=h...
I would expect a less dramatic decline for lower-priced electric cars, some of which do also have sales in Denmark, like the Nissan Leaf or Volkswagen e-uP, but I haven't found numbers.
Hasn't anyone attempted to go around it by finding someone in say Germany to register the car as a first owner and then immediately purchasing the car (as a used car now) from him?
That's one of the main arguments that is being brought up here in Estonia when the socialists try to create a car registration tax. The opponents claim that people will just go a bit south to Latvia and register their car there, and then just drive around with a Latvian registration. There aren't any restrictions that prohibit this.
Similar behavior exists with alcohol. The Finnish are especially well known for their alcohol-tourism into Estonia. They come here during weekends and buy multiple crates worth of alcohol and go back. Two-way ferry ticket from Helsinki to Tallinn can cost as little as 10 € during sales, so economy-wise it can be cheaper even if you just want a 6-pack of beer. The funny thing is that as years have passed and Estonian alcohol tax has risen, we're now in a situation where southern-Estonians drive to Latvia to get their alcohol. That's also why the car registration point is so clear to us, because we're already seeing it with consumables where you have to make regular trips instead of a single one.
But yes, some amount of this happens. The easiest case to get away with it is probably if you are actually from another EU country, and just keep it registered in your home country at a relative's address, and travel back occasionally to keep your license, insurance, and registration up to date. If you're Danish and have no foreign address, it would be more complicated to get it sorted out, especially with insurance, but I'm sure there are people who do it. Police attempt to crack down on it by looking for foreign-registered cars that seem to be parked too regularly in the same residential area (e.g. in front of a block of flats in Copenhagen). That's not illegal per se, since you might be a longer-term visitor, but they investigate these cases and catch some number each year.
Besides foreign-registered vehicles, the other most common evasion mechanism is probably agriculturally registered vehicles (which are exempt from tax). Hard to do if you have no connection to a farm at all, but in families where some of the family are genuinely farmers, the rest of the family who aren't will in some cases end up with all their vehicles registered at the farm.
I'm sure there's some kind of mechanism to prevent people from driving cars leased in another country, but how does it work?
If you are a permanent resident, you can't drive a vehicle with foreign number plates. That rules out leasing abroad.
Many people live in Malmö but work in Copenhagen precisely to avoid this restriction.
How does police find those who drive a foreign vehicle illegally? Stop a vehicle in foreign plates, ask driver's license; if it is a local national driving, investigate. Police have very much powers in Nordic countries for these cases (they can always stop a car and investigate, there's no American type requirement for a probable cause.)
And of course, there are always people who report suspected tax evaders to the police.
There used to be a sort of a hunt for these cases between Sweden (who has no car sales tax) and Finland. E.g. there was a guy who lived in Haparanda on Swedish side and had a girlfriend in Tornio on the Finnish side, and stayed too many nights at the girlfriend's place. He got a big fine and had to pay back taxes because he should have registered himself as a local resident and imported and registered the car to Finland as well, including paying the car import tax.
I sold my first car to a Norwegian friend. It was a wreck so I sold it for the equivalent of 50 € (this was 1990). The friend then moved back to Oslo. She was asked to pay the equivalent of about 2000 € in car tax to register it in Norway. She gave it for scrap instead, of course.
Leasing is usually a better deal in this case. You can get a small car for around 1500 kr / month.
I did the same for about 3 years in UK, and it was fine,even the local police and DVLA confirmed that I'm not braking any laws doing it, even though the law is structured in the same way - if you are a permanent resident you can't drive a foreign vehicle in the UK. Except if you work for a foreign company that gave you a company vehicle to use then yes,you can, and there doesn't seem to be any restriction on it.
For example: I know of a Dutch guy who leases a Ferrari through a Belgian company he set up for this, because it would cost him twice as much in the Netherlands. There are also examples of Belgian people driving cars with Luxembourg plates, etc. This is not illegal (though it's obviously a form of tax avoidance)
[1] See the question "Foreign company cars" here: https://www.skat.dk/SKAT.aspx?oId=2068721
Given we're talking a €100-120K tax difference on expensive cars, you can always consult a Danish tax lawyer and if he thinks it's doable do it anyway. If the tax authority has a problem with it then, then you just take it to court. Seems worth investigating.
So a $20k car is $45k? What the #(%^@! ???
I mean, I personally disagree with this approach as I love driving and buy new cars, but I can see and understand why they do it that way. Denmark has extremely well developed public transport and most people get along without cars just fine.
Nowadays car ownership is popular enough that I'm not sure you could successfully introduce such a tax if people were not already used to it existing, and used to current new-car prices. When it was introduced, cars were seen as a rarer luxury than they are now, so a luxury tax was not too unpopular, and many people were also swayed by arguments that they had a significant negative social impact, on things like pollution and traffic and injuries, that should be paid for by taxing them [1]. But since it exists, if you cut it, you have to either raise some other tax, or cut some spending program, to account for the revenue; and you probably also have to build more roads and parking to account for the extra cars. That kind of change isn't so popular, and cars (especially new cars) are still culturally seen as not quite a necessity, so keeping the not-that-loved new-car tax remains less bad politically than the alternatives. Though it being lowered from 180% to 150% is a sign that consensus around it is not as strong as it once was, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more incremental cuts in the future.
[1] E.g. one 2009 analysis found that, even accounting for all the taxes, cars still have a 15% negative impact (costing society $1.15 for each $1.00 paid by car owners): http://www.copenhagenize.com/2012/10/danish-180-tax-on-cars-...
I guess the system works as well in Denmark as it did in Singapore (I lived in Singapore form 2010 to 2012).