> Even a small sustained overtopping flow can remove thousands of tons of overburden soil from the mass of the dam within hours.
https://youtu.be/tkOBmiyTfEQ?t=8m20s
Basically, when the dam over-tops the water will cut a channel into which a little more water will flow and cut a little deeper into which more flows...and on and on.
It's a run away failure and cannot be stopped.
Here's a quicker example of how just a tiny breach at the top will drain the entire dam:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmKLxoAPU1c
Note in the first video it's the over-topping that causes the initial erosion/breach rather then the artificial one in the second video, but the mechanism of further failure is essentially the same.
I'm not sure the exact construction of the Oroville dam but it's clear the emergency spillway was concrete lined at the top likely with this sort of failure in mind.
I'd be surprised if the main bulk of the dam didn't have at least some measures to stop this kind of failure but someone with knowledge of it's construction can chime in on this point.
This was the coffer dam for the construction of Auburn Dam, work on which was halted, but the coffer dam never removed?
Excellent video!
Wikimedia has a nice picture of the area:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Oroville...
The emergency spillway is on the far left, it is lower than the rest of the dam. So if water is flowing over the main structure, it's anyway already failed.
For an earthen dam, erosion of the top of the dam when overtopping is also, I believe, a significant issue, but overtopping is a catastrophic failure issue for any dam.
>Water isn't passing over the dam
The question is about what happens when water passes over the dam.
If someone asks you what would happen to the people inside of a submarine if they let it fill with water, you don't respond by saying they design submarines to prevent them from filling up with water.
Whichever part of the dam was lowest would see the fastest flowing water and would erode the most quickly. As a chasm was cut down through the dam, the water would flow faster and faster through it - if the height of the water above the bottom of the cut is 1 foot, only the top foot of water is "pushing" the water over; if the cut is 10 feet deep, now the top 10 feet of water is "pushing" water out the hole, and it will be pushed much faster.
This will turn into a feedback loop, and the water will rapidly cut a channel through to the bottom of the dam. As water flows through it, faster and faster, it will weaken the sides of the chasm, and more of the dam will collapse. This will let more of the water flow through, but slower, eventually limiting further erosion.
This is essentially the same thing happening in the spillways right now, but slower, because the spillways are designed to resist erosion. Once the vicious cycle gets started, though, the end result is the same.
This image of the main spillway gives you an idea of what they're building on: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/02/13/08/3D252AE20000057...
You can see that they blasted into the rock to make the spillway.
However, the idea that erosion will undercut the emergency spillway and cause it fail implies that it's not built directly on the rock. This suggests that there could be more than 30' of draining.