H-1B reduced computer programmer employment by up to 11%, study finds | Hacker News Reader

H-1B reduced computer programmer employment by up to 11%, study finds

marketwatch.com

30 pointsJerry210 comments

The study goes from 1994 to 2001, so during the aftermath of the dot-com bust.

That's like studying housing data from 2004 to 2011 and drawing the conclusion that a reduction in the number of construction workers in 2004 would have reduced housing price losses in 2011. It might be correct, but it's ignoring some pretty important externalities.

I don't really understand.

"There would have been up to 11% more computer science jobs at wages up to 5% higher"

How would the industry have created 11% more jobs? Are foreigners so efficient that they can handle multiple job roles?

From the abstract of the paper itself: "In the absence of immigration, wages for US computer scientists would have been 2.6% to 5.1% higher and employment in computer science for US workers would have been 6.1% to 10.8% higher in 2001".

So focusing specifically on US workers, not immigrants.

So basically if there was no visa system employing X amount of foreigners, then X amount of US workers would have been employed. Seems obvious enough.

Anyone know what the unemployment rate for computer science workers is? Is there 6.1% to 10.8% available and waiting?

Comp Sci is the domain with the least unemployment out of any major sector of employment. Basically at full employment levels (not just the US, but worldwide).

Or at least, that was the case a couple years back.

Perhaps the author meant there would have been 11% more computer science jobs... available to U.S. programmers if not for H-1B workers occupying those jobs?

Answers: Probably not, Depending on the culture.

The USA pay an enormous amount per year compares with other countries around the globe, however, the cost of living can be much more nearer the big cities in the USA (and the rest of the world for that matter). Generally people would want a H1-B / L visa because the US has the "tech scene", which, with all of these cuts to visas going forward probably wont last long...tech hubs are appearing all over the world.

Sorry I went off on a tangent, but to answer your question 11% more jobs with higher wages just isn't sustainable so you are correct to question the statement.

This paper is a work in progress, with the following abstract:

  Over the 1990s, the share of foreigners entering the US high-skill workforce 
  grew rapidly. This migration potentially had a significant effect on US workers, 
  consumers and firms. To study these effects, we construct a general equilibrium 
  model of the US economy and calibrate it using data from 1994 to 2001. Built into 
  the model are positive effects high skilled immigrants have on innovation. 
  Counterfactual simulations based on our model suggest that immigration increased the
  overall welfare of US natives, and had significant distributional consequences. In 
  the absence of immigration, wages for US computer scientists would have been 2.6% 
  to 5.1% higher and employment in computer science for US workers would have been 
  6.1% to 10.8% higher in 2001. On the other hand, complements in production benefited
  substantially from immigration, and immigration also lowered prices and raised the 
  output of IT goods by between 1.9% and 2.5%, thus benefiting consumers. Finally, 
  firms in the IT sector also earned substantially higher profits due to immigration.

that those H1bs didn't work outside the US, causing increased spending on food, and housing, and overall supporting American economy.

In a lot of cases H1bs could work in their home country, at a much lower wage and build that countries economy instead.

H1-B increased my computer programmer employment by 100%.

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