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Comment by lmm | Hacker News Reader

Is there a clear sharp line where e.g. Estonia is a "real" US interest and Crimea isn't? I mean NATO membership is a line, but it's not feeling as solid as it used to.

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A next field of conflict is Belarus, which tries to distance itself from Russia. It's not NATO, it's not a country with a security guarantee like the Ukraine ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...) , it's not trying to connect itself to the EU (like the Ukraine), but still it could be a next conflict.

Then there are European countries not in NATO, but cooperating with NATO, like Sweden and Finland. Both have a border with Russia.

Sweden doesn't have a border with Russia. Also, as a Finn, I highly doubt Russia would attack Finland. We have a relatively good relationship with them, and such a war would be very costly with nothing to be gained. If there was a larger conflict in Europe, Russia might try to invade Åland or Gotland, but that also sounds unlikely to happen.

> Sweden doesn't have a border with Russia.

Right. Not direct, but Kaliningrad is just 300km across the baltic sea. Stockholm to Kaliningrad is 500km across the baltic sea.

> We have a relatively good relationship with them, and such a war would be very costly with nothing to be gained.

There are many ways to influence a country.

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702101050541682-finland-ru...

Belarus, really!?! They look like a fragment of the USSR that simply hasn't gotten the message yet. Where's the burgeoning democratic movement, where's the economic modernization?

http://observer.com/2017/02/belarus-national-security-nato-v...

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