I don't know the exact numbers, but it is regularly evaluated, and they found that it won't save money moving to the cloud (yet).
Apparently, grid jobs have different IO/CPU/Memory characteristics from typical cloud applications. My jobs tend to use a lot of CPU and bandwidth, but are mostly IO bound. A friend did a very, very CPU intensive analysis for his PhD, and they estimated that it would cost $30 million to run it on AWS. I'm not sure where they got that number from, so take it with a grain of salt, but even if they are an order of magnitude off, it is still prohibitive.
Another issue we are facing is RAM consumption. Many scientists are not trained programmers, so there are a lot of memory leaks. It didn't use to matter, an analysis program ran only a few hours and was single-threaded anyway. Now we are moving to using multi-threading, and we have been using multi-processing anyway... And as I understand it, in modern hardware the RAM/CPU ratio is getting lower and lower. If your job or thread needs 8 GB RAM, you can't run many of them on a 32 core CPU...
So yeah, I think the main issue is wierd resource usage patterns. Not that it would be impossible. Grid computing is basically just a weird parallelly evolved version of cloud computing, after all.