You are right. This is why these things will not go anywhere. Ultimately they need some kind of "back up"... For example, the system we currently have flows like so: Nation state Military > Federal Police > Local Police > Physical Intimidation via face to face meeting. At every step, stop when lawyers and/or politicians get involved.
Has no one addressed the basic need of a justice system with these crypto currencies?
> that brings on a whole new level of reputation-economy things you have to think about.
We already have an inscrutable, unaccountable, super-intelligent system that can do that - the courts, the police...
We already have well-established mechanisms to arbitrate these kind of disagreements, e.g. courts. Adding blockchains to the process just makes it more complicated for no gain.
However when I tried some Ethereum development my impression was that most cryptocurrency people I met just hope that the value of their bitcoins goes up, or that they can sell related products or services. Many things seem to be financed by cryptocoin-money (not necessarily bad in itself) to keep the hype going, but it doesn't feel like a movement that wants to change things.
It's not like with open source where Stallman, Linus and many many other dreamt a dream but also built a lot of really high quality and important software. I don't see that kind of movement going on with Ethereum.
If an arbitration clause isn't held up, it's not because of unpredictability of the court it's because the clause runs afoul of the actual law/code the court applies which is predictable. Moreover, smart contracts are not going to permit parties to circumvent law, in other words a smart contract arbitration clause would not be enforceable in a jurisdiction they are not otherwise enforceable.
Of course, this is entirely insufficient to do something like "put your corporation on the blockchain".
No reason an arbitration clause couldn't be included in the contract.
Ethereum contracts are turing complete. The payout function can be contingent on either the buyer or arbitrators releasing the funds. The arbitrators can be determined before hand or rely on an external contract that offers arbitration services. The possibilities are truly endless.
How long is the discovery period? What about "returns"? What if the arbitrator is working with the seller and scams me? When does "I have a big gun and I am not afraid to use it" come into the function?
> The arbitrators can be determined before hand or rely on an external contract that offers arbitration services.
And how much will those services cost? Who vets the arbitrator? What is my recourse if arbitration fails?
> The possibilities are truly endless.
Yes, I agree. This is just built for a place that does not yet exist.
It might help if 'contracts' and payment amounts were small. In the Antifragile (book) sense: the fairness of any individual contract is fragile, rife with risk. However, in aggregation the system is antifragile (better than robust) as long as occasional bad deals are acceptable.