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Comment by nodesocket | Hacker News Reader

Novel project, but not useful. Trump tweeted thanks to Intel on Feb 8th which was a super positive tweet. Since then $INTC is down about 2.6%.

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He tweeted negatively about Nordstrom, stock went up. We might be onto something here...

One can easily place bets on the volatility of a stock. If you expect it to move, but you don't know which direction, that is tradeable knowledge.

How?

Stock options

More specifically, a straddle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straddle

Tweets seem to have an impact of around 1-3% lasting hours to days. Many (most?) stocks have too high implied volatility to begin with for straddling by tweet to be a productive strategy.

Even as an ensemble?

If you could spot the tweet and know the direction it'd move there might be cheap enough options to make money on one side, but the "ensemble" aspect of a straddle means that you need to make twice as much to cover the premiums before you make any returns.

I believe it is only logical to assume that the OP meant this as a fun project and not to earn money from.

Anyone knowing a little of the stock market knows that different factors play the game and not a factor. e.g. maybe if Trump wouldn't have tweeted Intel would have gone down >2.6%

It doesn't need to be right every time, it needs to beat the market. I am not saying that I know that it does beat the market, but it would be interesting to know if it does.

All you have provided is proof that it is sometimes wrong, which is not surprising at all.

I have a hunch that both positive and negative mentions means a negative indicator for the stock.

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