My car was $20k brand new with several options tacked on. Most people I know have used cars... getting a new car of any kind is a big deal IMO for most Americans.
Given that, I would say that calling it a "cheap" car is pretty accurate for most Americans. Obviously it is not in the range of used cars or the ultracheaps ($10-15K), but it's really amazingly cheap for an electric if they can make it happen.
[1] Note this is likely to be halved or a quartered for new orders as Telsa reaches the 200,000 vehicle mark [2] https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/honda/civic-sedan-pricing... [3] Rough estimate based on $150/mo in gas -> $50/mo in electricity
Will a 3rd-party battery replacement industry evolve, or will we always be stuck buying from the manufacturer?
If you are driving a half million to million miles in 20 years, an electric will probably really make sense. You MIGHT need to replace the battery. With a ICE car, you will need $5K of oil changes, $3K of timing belts, and around $20K more in gasoline than electricity, probably a new engine and transmission or two... There's probably another $5K worth of service in there (plugs, fuel injectors, transmission, belts).
So with a gas car you KNOW you're going to be in to it for basically as much as the purchase price of a Model 3 just in maintenance (again, if you are talking half a million miles).
https://electrek.co/2016/06/06/tesla-model-s-battery-pack-da...
While they will avoid much of the touch/feel issues with regards to buttons the real test is where the good plastics start and end.
With regards to production targets, not only do they have to get their plant to that level their suppliers have to be able to hit those numbers as well.
I might just put my next car purchase off now. I would like to see how Tesla is doing with this car on September 20th
Please use medians.
One thing to factor in though is the rate of deterioration of the battery pack over a 20 year period and other issues unique to electrics vs the maintenance requirements unique to an ICE vehicle.
It would be really interesting to see the breakdowns on those numbers.
# https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pu...
Not sure why you'd assume that.
Current Tesla models have excellent residual values: 62% at 3 years according to black book, which is excellent for the luxury segment - and even better when you consider that EV values tend to be skewed by tax credits!
The Model 3 will share features like over-the-air updates that should help it retain value well.
https://electrek.co/2016/09/13/tesla-model-s-value-retention...
Are you saying they're kept that long by the original owner? Do you have a source for that figure?
So, I agree it will probably take a while for most people to be able to buy a (used) Tesla.
[1] http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/02/18/record-u...
I wish Musk hasn't said that he's not going to make a car that's cheaper than $35,000. I know he wants to add Level 5 Autopilot and whatnot by default on these cars, but he really needs to get to the $20,000 range at least. That's where the real mainstream is, and not just in the U.S. either. EVs will go mainstream when they cost $10,000-$20,000.
It may take another decade to get there, but if Musk doesn't build such a car others will. It's just that I would've preferred a Tesla car to put pressure on the quality of the competitors as well.
[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-21/goodbye-middle-clas...
"I'm super excited about being able to produce a car that most people can afford," Musk said. "And there will be future cars that are even more affordable down the road."
"With something like the Model 3, it's designed such that roughly half the people can afford the car," he continued. "With fourth generation and smaller cars and what not, we'll ultimately be in the position where almost everyone will be able to afford the car."
From here: http://www.computerworld.com/article/3062365/car-tech/elon-m...
90% of the people living in the EU earn less than $30,000 per year. The EU's median household income is comparable to the US poverty line for median household income. The EU's GDP per capita is 60% lower than the US; they have 750 million people, with a total GDP 10% lower than the US.
Or take Sweden for comparison, it's below all but 12 US states when it comes to median individual income. The median US income is about 45% higher than the UK median. The number of countries on earth with a higher median income than the US, you can list on one hand.
These numbers are even more dramatically out of line, if you're talking about white households (which supposedly form the core of the populist anger). The median white household earns $75,000 and has a median net worth of $145,000 - an income number drastically higher than Sweden, Finland, UK, Germany, France, etc.
So remind me again how income numbers in the US are driving the populist anger.
When did he state that? I'd only read the general plan of 'make an expensive high-end car, use profits to make a less expensive mid-range car, use profits from that to make an affordable car'.
Or did he mean that they don't need to make a cheaper car for widespread adoption since owners can rent the car out as a self-driving taxi to recoup ownership costs?