Why is this job not handled by a machine yet?
venturebeat.com
venturebeat.com
Walking over to the check-in counter, a polite explanation of the situation I found myself in (and, possibly, my moderate-level status with the carrier but I don't fully know) made the service attendant remove the problem in about 30 seconds, guaranteeing that both I and my luggage would make the flight with no problems despite being 'technically past the deadline now'.
Flesh-based interaction points, by their very nature, have a tendancy to span a far broader range of service quality than machines. The bad are far worse because machines don't gossip and hate their jobs. Conversely, machines have little hope when things go south compared with a good service employee, who'll do their level best to go above and beyond their basic responsibilites to make whatever issue you have either go away or minimally impact you.
My experience is that one of the most apparent examples of this is if you ever find yourself significantly up the greasy ladder of the airline status game for whatever reason. I postulate that because carriers have realised that 'bending the rules' is a relatively 0-cost commodity to exchange for brand loyalty and this is precisely factored into the training and job directives of their employees.
I put forth a guess that airline passenger terminals have not been made more efficient with automation because that would expose just how inefficient the airline is away from the public areas of the terminal. The ground crew service has to be automated first, in order to actually see any benefits.
For instance, boarding procedures are intentionally inefficient, for two reasons. If the passengers boarded quickly, and in an orderly fashion, they would just have to wait even longer for the ground crew to prepare for departure. And the first-class passengers have to be guaranteed space in the first-come-first-served overhead bins. That's really the only reason to board early. If you don't have a carry-on bag, you might as well wait until just before they disconnect the boarding ramp, because they will still be loading bags and running checklists at that time.
The baggage claim areas are intentionally hard to reach from the embarkation areas, because people will have to wait for their bags when they get there anyway.
A lot of the inconveniences you experience as a passenger in the airport are there by design.
So I would further guess that the arbitrary check-in deadline exists as a method to resolve overbooking conflicts. If that particular flight had been overbooked, the human could not have done anything other than offer a conciliatory apology and some compensatory voucher, depending on their mood and your demeanor. The deadline conceals the fact that the airlines sometimes sell the same seat to multiple people.
To a deeper extent, when you create and then raise a child, and your child grows up and interacts with others, that is also a case of you unconsciously interacting with others.
Follow the chain of creative identity backwards in time to the beginning, and you end up with the cause of the universe, whatever that may be, unconsciously interacting with itself, through everyone and everything.
It's not very relevant, and perhaps not even important, but it's an interesting perspective :)
- Alan Watts
- "Your computer systems somehow completely failed to notify me in advance you cancelled my flight. Your airline has a legal obligation to book me on an alternative route, and pay compensation in the event of a significant delay."
- "I've followed your suggestion and been all round the airport looking for somewhere to print my ticket confirmation details, but can't find anywhere, and it's 11pm. Look, it's on my laptop screen."
- "Would you like a complimentary upgrade? You'll need to change your shoes first to comply with our business class policy, mind you"
- "We're overbooked, would you be interested in the option of a £500 and a hotel stay overnight? Any questions?"
- "You don't have an onward ticket? Not even a boat or bus ticket yet? OK, despite experiences you may have had with other airlines, we're strict on enforcing that country's visa policy, so you'll have to buy one. Here's the cheapest we sell, and this is the process for obtaining a refund after landing."
- "Oh, you've got a ticket with that airline, have you? We've got a codeshare agreement now - would you like us to put your bags through?"
- "The flight is delayed for five hours, here's your complimentary meal"
- "Look, I understand that your 777 has significantly fewer seats than the 747 it's replaced at short notice, but we're some of the first people to arrive, why would you bump us off? We're travelling on business so we need to be there and aren't at all interested in your compensation package. Yes, we have to be there on that day, for a trade show. No, we're not frequent flyers with your airline, but if it makes a difference a colleague of ours just got headhunted to a VP position in your airline. Yes, he sits next to us for the next month. Oh, there are seats available now?"
Needless to say, even where software can be written to deal with these edge cases, keeping it up to date with the latest issues isn't cheap, especially when you need (inexpensive) staff hanging around your kiosks just to deal with people that don't understand how to use them anyway.
Discrimination tends to happen in reverse, with special privileges created for customers that have a particularly strong need to travel, customers that have suffered from the airline's cockup, situations where customers need extra help etc. It's difficult to argue that "Computer says no" is an overall improvement on that.
I think it is, overall. Fixing problems may take a bit longer but they'll get fixed for everyone, rather than ad-hoc fixing it for upper-class folks who are friends with VPs and hanging the regular folks out to dry.
Disgruntled business people missing part of the trade show they'd bought the flights for, the couple of club scheme members the algorithm prioritises boarding the flight instead of being offered the option of cash compensation and masses of free points for flying tomorrow they might have actually preferred and a VP getting a flea in his ear for the worst airline service ever probably leaves everyone strictly worse off than before. Not to mention how much more incredibly rude it appears to the average person if an airline informs people they can't board the flight they're waiting for via the passport scan machine rather than a sympathetic human that's just going to ring a couple of people to check whether there's anything that can be done.
The pain is a lot less, though possibly still slightly less unsympathetic, depending on the mood of the attendant you'd otherwise have gotten.
Which airline, if you don't mind my asking?
I felt a little bad doing it, especially after listening to the actual calls where people would just sound so annoyed and frustrated as they continuously asked for an operator, but the client insisted that less people actually reached their call centers.
It was actually brilliant because it was responding to real frustration in a useful way, and it was disarming because it was a humorous thing for an automated system to do.
* fixed that for you
Now I deliberately avoid any automated checkout and go straight to the human cashier. if you insist on replacing humans with machines, it has to be flawless
Humans can optimise the path from the conveyor belt to the bag so that the item just so happens to pass via the barcode scanner.
I could do that too, but the machine throws a hissy fit and doesn't let me scan the next item until I've placed it in the bagging area, and waited a second for the scales to stabilize. In the time it takes me to scan and bag one item on the automated checkout, an experienced human cashier can get 5-6 items bagged.
And that's only if things go as expected. Sometimes the scales bug out. Sometimes I have to navigate menus to specify what fresh produce I'm buying (while human checkout operators have memorised all the numbers). Sometimes I make a mistake and I'm not allowed to self-correct it. I have to wait for a human to come along and fix my mistake.
Not to mention, the machine is yelling instructions at me the entire time. "Yes I know I should use the pin pad to complete my transaction, in fact I did so while you were still playing the previous audio clip."
The only time the automated checkout is faster is when there is a queue at the real checkouts. And even then, the queue might be worth it just so I can avoid the automated checkout yelling at me.
It seems like no reasonable person wouldn't notice this flaw, let alone the presumably several people involved in creating this software, so it leads me to believe that there is some reason the shops want to encourage not using these checkouts.
I wonder why?
None of the steps are really that long by themselves, but in aggregate it's easily another 1-2 minutes checking out.
Been using this for years in Canada. Most well known as PayPass (MasterCard) but also PayWave (Visa) and Contactless Payments (American Express). By far it's the fastest and easiest way to pay (including vs cash), and I use it whenever I have a choice. I'd say it takes me well under 10 seconds which includes taking out and putting away my card.
I've noticed the newest terminals in sit-down restaurants are even working with it now, by moving the prompt for the tip to the start of the process (before you tap or put your card in) instead of the end.
Although I take my time to go through it. Damn, if it's done by machine, I can do it on my own pace.
My position, having worked as a checkout assistant FWIW, is the opposite. Using the self-checkout is redistributing money from the poor to the rich, AFAICT: you're saving the company wages, paying the same amount, and doing the work for free.
If the out of work checkout assistants got a living wage then you might be on to something.
However, checkout assistants are not very well paid and the job is horrible (it's not the worst, arguably, but could be improved).
I do not however feel responsible for the bad moral decisions of other people. My action in itself doesn't increase profits of the wealthy, it's actions of other people. These people need to be made socially responsible (for example via progressive taxation), not me.
It's really not even that bad, if you like talking to people. The checking groceries part can be sort of meditative and relaxing.
I prefer automated checkout too - but I'm curious as to why you think the job is "terrible"?
Before my first software development gig, I worked for 6 months as a cashier. I won't say it was all rainbows and roses, but it wasn't "terrible". Hard on the feet (standing), but I was young at the time so it wasn't too big of a deal. Dealing with irate customers could be interesting at time (pass 'em to a manager if you couldn't calm 'em down). Occasionally you'd get someone trying to return an item bought 20 years ago (actually had this happen to me).
But there were also the "regulars": The 70 year old lady who came in every Wednesday to purchase a bunch of liquor - who'd then walk out, and hop into her brand new Vette. The weird cat dude, who always smelled, but was friendly - purchasing a cart full of cat food, and another of rubbing alcohol and swabs (poor cats). The guy you always carded for beer, because he looked underage - and even though you know he wasn't, you did it anyhow, and he complained - but corporate policy, ya know?
Then a break - go face the aisles, or stock new stuff, or pull the old stuff. Have some lunch or some dinner. Eventually close the store, sweep the aisles, clean up, shut down, and go home.
For me, it was an "after school" kind of deal - not a career. But it wasn't a terrible job. Just difficult on the mind and body (it was a bit boring at times). My fellow employees were all friendly, and management was nice and helpful. I always got paid on time, meager as it was.
It gave me a better perspective and understanding for those working behind the counter, because I know what they're going thru. Plus, it also taught me how to properly scan items quickly (though when I started, the place I worked at didn't have scanners - they didn't get those until a couple of months later). Even so, when an item doesn't scan, I find it a bit frustrating, but most systems have a way still to enter the UPC number...
...still, I wouldn't want to go back to those days.
I don't like the bagging system that has to ensure you put your item into a bag, and that has a quite noticeable delay in responding to your actions.
I also don't like the tiny area they have for the bags. What am I supposed to do? Put full bags back into my half-emptied shopping cart alongside items that haven't been scanned yet? It makes me uncomfortable, like they'll think I'm up to something.
I also tend to buy items in bulk, like 2-liter bottles, and it's nice to say "I have 8 of these" and pass one to the cashier.
This is really not the case the self-checkout lines are designed for.
I use them almost exclusively for those cases where I duck in and grab a couple things quickly, and want to get the hell out. It's always faster and easier than even the 12-items-or-less express checkout line, not to mention the regular lines, where you get stuck behind somebody with a cart rounded to the sky and $400 worth of groceries in it.
It depends on the store. At the grocery store a few miles away, I can scan an item and immediately put it in a bag. At the grocery store closest to me, you scan the item and place it on a belt, which takes it to the end of the counter. You bag everything at the end. By contrast, at that store, a cashier can scan an item an place it directly in a bag.
Automated would I walk out the door and rfid or whatever senses what I'm carrying and charges my account.
Or, I don't go to the store at all and shit just shows up on my doorstep, periodically or whenever I hit a button.
I wonder how much of this is super markets jumping on to the fact people are conflating automation with using a machine and assuming self-service checkouts are proof of a technological revolution. At the end of the day the same amount of work is being done at the till as if a cashier was working but it is now being done for free and a company won't miss a chance to capitalise on an opportunity like that.
The Target on the other hand has rows and rows of empty checkout tills. They try to get you to use the automated tills but that line is so much longer that it just boggles the mind. Any time savings is wasted on the machine having an error,
In particular, I was instinctively looking at the screen instead of the camera, despite the big sign telling you not to.
Find me someone in a job who has the exact same day at work every day with no exceptions and I'll show you a job you can automate. Exceptions are what define things that machines can't do well, and every scenario brought up in this story has routine exceptions.
More importantly, even in cases perfectly suited to automation, we can't pretend all the software we build is perfect or even remotely approaches the quality that can be produced by the brightest minds in the industry, either. Everyone wants to automate everything, and you can be sure most of it will be done poorly. Even the simplest human at least does a better job than a poorly built piece of software. I can rage 24/7 about how bad the software people write is. At least 90% of it. I rarely find myself annoyed at how incapable of doing their job the typical service worker is, and when I do it's virtually always fixed by their boss or a manager.
Automation done well is a tool. It turns many jobs into a few, where people handle exceptions and have actual administrative control. I've had tons of bad experiences with automation that has little/no human backup and it's by far worse than dealing with people. And this is coming from an introvert.
We're no where near machines replacing human operators 100%, but a 90% solution with humans handling the exceptions is still a 10x boost in productivity.
And yes, the software is total shit. There are no unit tests and it's written in RPG (half of it dates back to '95). When it breaks we go back to managing the exceptions, much like "talking to the manager" when the service worker screws up.
The company wouldn't be afloat without automation like this. We would be completely crushed by our competitors. I don't think the automation needs to be done well at all. It just needs human backup.
You are entitled to be skeptical based on your personal experiences. That one smart guy has had terrible experiences with 100% automated pre-2020 systems is not a good enough reason to shy away from the idea of pure automation.
How about when they reek of cigarettes? Or when they make a mistake (and they do) and all the people behind you start eyeballing you and the cashier, clearly upset at the delay? How about when they ring up produce incorrectly, or double count items, overcharging you? How about when something comes up wrong, and then they argue with you, because they're stressed with a queue to process?
Human cashiers being objectively better in every way than self-service automated lanes is not correct, especially as you sample more and more cashiers. SOME cashiers are better. Many aren't.
Or they are in a hurry. I will take the faster option every time and that usually means no human.
> A checker at a grocery store actually does all of the work for you.
What if there was no work to do? Amazon is exploring that concept and if it works as described (I haven't used it yet, but have walked by and it seems to) seems objectively better in every way.
Correct, but this is the result of the store intentionally routing you through the self checkout by under staffing cashiers to save money.
>What if there was no work to do? Amazon is exploring that concept and if it works as described (I haven't used it yet, but have walked by and it seems to) seems objectively better in every way.
Excellent point. I should have used "self service" instead of "automation". It was a poor choice of words on my part. Full automation to remove anyone from needing to do the work would certainly be objectively better. The article linked is more about self service than automation.
It's not good enough to just to get them out of the deep machinery of the planet, it has to elevate them somewhere or we're just replacing people from the instrumentation of the universe without good reason.
I have a perfect example of this.
Years ago, my mom's coworker discovered that her bank card no longer worked. ATM's would error. Online systems would reject all transactions.
So she went to a bank branch to sort it out. After explaining to the teller her situation, the teller brought up her account details, looked up from her monitor and said, on a straight face: "You are dead."
What had happened was that she had had a full namesake who had also had an account in the same bank. When the other person had died, and her estate had closed the accounts, the person doing the account termination had only looked up account owners by their full name. Closed all of them, with the explanation "account holder deceased".
Human errors happen. So do computer errors. It only becomes a problem when humans rely only on what computers tell them. This particular bank teller didn't even realise that the facts stated by the computer were contradicting what was literally standing in front their eyes.
Critical thinking is a dying trait.
It may be more complex though. The machine can be wrong, but so can your eyes. The previous customer coming to that teller with the same situation might have been someone who stole the identity of a deceased person. You can't just assume the machine is wrong because it disagrees with what you see.
This is also not the problem of machines per se, but of large systems - where different parts are handled by different people who don't know each other (or may not even be aware of each other's existence), and a set of fixed procedures (i.e. meatspace algorithms) are used to coordinate everything.
The real problem manifested in human blindly accepting what the computer told them. If there is no reason, or even NEED to apply critical thinking, why is there a human involved at all? This is not an indictment of automation over human labour. I would rather that humans are in the loop precisely because they have the ability to spot these kinds of errors - and help to correct them. Computers are good at repeating mundane tasks. Humans are not. We should be making most of their distinct abilities, not molding the two into same form.
Now, Temporal rightly pointed out that this might have been a case of attempted fraud. But if you are trying to spot fraud, spotting anomalies and being critical on what you accept as objective truth should be on the top of your mental map.
The system isn't flawed only in the sense that the bank doesn't give a shit. They get to reap the returns on your capital either way.
Or did they then proceed to refuse to deal with the living dead person?
...so - what happened to your mom's co-worker's money?
In the meanwhile, it was pure luck that she didn't have any critical expenses, such as taxes during the time window.
The bank never issued an apology.
In all cases where machine and human are assigned to a job as a unit, human should have authority to override automated decisions.
There are two reasons why it isn't so: business doesn't trust its drones, and workflow tends to break down on unexpected input. But it should be.
This is not a response to your entire post, just a small one to "where we don't want a rigid machine-like process" - I think this is something that machines are perfectly capable of solving. We are not arguing about whether or not, in the ticket printer case, the machine should or should not print a ticket outside it's rigid specified rules (late by 1 minute etc). In fact I think that most of us would agree that as a matter of principle such grace-periods are a fundamental lubricant of a comfortable society. We just have (historically) had to plead our cases and rely on the grace of other humans to grant such meager exceptions to rigid rules. We are just arguing at this point about what the numbers for such grace periods should be, machines can easily implement them once we find a happy medium. My $0.02 anyway.
I'm an advocate for a hybrid approach. Get machines to do the bulk of all the work, and have a human handle problems, edgecases, and "bending the rules for loyalty".
A computer replacement that doesn't have any additional data, and isn't programmed with the discretion to make those calls to find out additional information, is going to just make the call that checkin is closed. It is probably an inferior solution to the human.
A computer replacement that has information about current security wait times, gate status, as well as information about all other flights, the location of the inbound plane, the estimated lifetime value of the customer standing in front of the kiosk, what competing airlines are doing, and the exact current company financials, can put all that data together to make far better decisions than the human checkin clerk could, in the best interests of the airline, and it doesn't need to be given arbitrary rules like 'turn people away if they show up 59 minutes before scheduled departure'.
To me it will be a great tragedy if we never end up filling these necessary jobs with machines, be it for political reasons or something else. There's nothing stimulating or fulfilling about these jobs. It's first world human misery.
Tell that to the workers who actually depend on those jobs to live. It's easy to get rid of "unnecessary" jobs when they're not your job.
But I'm one of the crazies who believes that in an ideal world, there would be no 9-5 norm and it would be possible for people to spend most of their time with their family and taking care of their own physical and mental health, rather than sacrificing their waking hours to keep the unemployment rate down. These people are already acting as fleshy machines.
You mean a completely unproven system that most economists believe cannot possibly be funded without increasing spending to unheard of levels and no you don't save enough by cutting the "inefficiencies of the current system" and has a good chance to quickly die due to inflation?
Can we please stop bringing up UBI as a silver bullet to all problems in every automation article?
I could have sworn I've heard that somewhere... oh wait, it's the same tired argument used against every progressive policy since the New Deal. You'll have to forgive UBI supporters for not taking economists seriously given their track record over the last century, during which the developed world increased spending to "unheard of" levels about a dozen times.
The US income tax, which required a Constitutional amendment, is only 104 years old after all.
> Can we please stop bringing up UBI as a silver bullet to all problems in every automation article?
I don't see anyone seriously claiming that UBI is a silver bullet, just that it's the only bullet we have left against our future robotic overlords.
Universal Basic Income cannot meet the minimum survival needs of the population as long as it does nothing more than transfer money.
The vision most people have when thinking about UBI cannot be realized without some form of command economy separated from the profit-motivated consumer-goods pipeline. If all you do is give poor people cash, their landlords raise rents, their grocers raise prices, and their bus lines raise fares.
Any UBI that I'd actually expect to work is nowhere near as simple as just cutting checks.
In other words, it's inevitable.
Not the same thing, the argument here is for more meaningful jobs, not just fewer bad jobs.
If there was less expectation of getting a bad job, there would be more support for getting good jobs.
Basic needs are motivation for doing things, but problematic too - they can also be demotivating.
The problem is that mobility & opportunity is costlier than food & shelter & small luxuries. As such, if you give people enough resources to do something with their life, they can just use it for basic needs & sls and do nothing else; why risk a comfy, if depressing, lifestyle on opportunity?
It's a difficult problem, how to ensure people always have opportunities available, while 'punishing' lack of ambition. Maybe the nuance here is the government becoming more aware of the impact of psychological factors, but this hasn't turned out well in the past...
It requires the rich and powerful to give up their lofty positions .
It isn't always easy to predict when it will happen, but horrifying, deplorable violence seems to be the only way for the lower classes to effectively reduce wealth inequality.
Some people are getting nervous enough to buy land in New Zealand or condo space in hardened apocalypse-survival bunkers. They know whose heads will roll if the guillotines ever get reassembled. They don't actually want to voluntarily give up their wealth, because they know how their peers treat those that don't have it, and because being constantly surrounded by luxuries is addictively awesome.
So we're frequently stuck in the situation where the poor think they're poor because the rich are too rich, and the rich don't care about what the poor think, because they're too busy kite-surfing in warm turquoise waters, buying recreational estates in Kauai, pitching giant museums to major cities, and generally living the good life.
The rich don't actually need to give up their wealth, but they might want to consider paying closer attention to the zeitgeist, and backing off on meddling too obviously in the lives of others at the appropriate times. Just like you might closely monitor the weather on your giant yacht, and make for port whenever a storm is brewing, you monitor the political climate and shelter your wealth when necessary.
That's really nice of you to make that determination for those miserables. They're probably so uneducated they don't even know how bad they have it. They are lucky that's people like you can come along to take away those horrible bill-paying, medicine buying, sources of personal satisfaction.
There's nothing inane about the argument. Have you ever been to Detroit? I've lived there for years. It's a horrible thing for these people to have been replaced by automation in their lifetimes. They didn't see the benefits in the increased productivity like their employers did, they just lost their livelihood and had to scramble for jobs that paid much less while simultaneously trying to retrain into other fields, if they were enterprising. The entire region is obviously devastated from the effects of it. Their prior automated work being "unfulfilling" and therefore terrible is a) debatable and b) nothing compared to the struggle of having no income at all. One guy I knew ended up homeless after he lost his job, then with a leg amputation because of frostbite from sleeping outside. When I met him he was making a living ticket scalping in his wheelchair all day. The short term consequences are real and terrible for these people.
as an analogy: Crack addicts going through withdrawal don't conclude from their pain that the drugs were a good thing. OP wasn't suggesting workers should suddenly have their jobs taken away, but that the whole situation is bad. Changing the situation, and how to do it, is an entirely different topic.
>Doesn't this just outline the terrible dependence these workers had on their jobs?
You're effectively saying people shouldn't rely on their jobs to support their livelihood. What other option do they (rather, we) have? Maybe factory workers should have had the foresight to see the industry changing toward automation, but even if they did, then what? Keep working to support your family 40 or more hours per week but learn an entirely new craft on top of that? Does that actually seem reasonable?
>any number of things could have caused the workers to lose their jobs, they were always at risk even when not struggling.
Yes, but the industry still existed. Say you worked for 10 years at Ford and got fired. Maybe GM or Chrysler has an opportunity for you, and they'd probably love your experience.
Does that sound familiar at all? Say you work for 10 years at Google and get fired. Maybe Facebook or Amazon has an opportunity for you, and they'd probably love your experience.
My point is that putting the blame on the employee shows a complete lack of empathy for someone because they "chose the wrong path in life". Does the employer have a duty to support the individual who became obsolete? No, but we should all collectively have a duty to make sure the lives of these people aren't completely destroyed, because as unlikely as it seems right now for those of us in the software world (and I'm sure it seemed unlikely in 1995 for those in the auto industry), we very well may be next.
Better jobs. What options do a crack addict have? Very few. That doesn't mean they are better off now being deprived off it, they would be better off never being dependent.
> Keep working to support your family
Why did they have a family when they were at risk? Either didn't perceive the risk, they operated under a false sense of security; or no other options were offered because the jobs that existed were seem as suitable.
If there were no jobs they wouldn't be inclined to settle down. I note that turning down a job can be grounds for losing some welfare benefits.
> Maybe GM or Chrysler has an opportunity for you
speculative. In the context we are talking about there are dangerous correlations: If one worker loses their jobs, the chance that another will increase (due to the possibility of a common cause, in this case automation), not to mention the chance of greater competition from other out-of-work workers (or lower compensation).
> Maybe Facebook or Amazon
Are you still talking about bad jobs? I'd love programming/tech to be more automated, somehow.
> putting the blame on the employee shows a complete lack of empathy for someone because they "chose the wrong path in life"
that's your strawman,not my argument.
> Does the employer have a duty to support the individual who became obsolete?
Do you mean at current, legally? No.
legally or morally, in the future? yes, maybe, who knows. Corporate tax pays for some social welfare. Things won't change if you're not allowed to criticise the current system.
> we should all collectively have a duty to make sure the lives of these people aren't completely destroyed
I disagree, this isn't enough. We have a duty to make sure the lives are full of this kind of risk too, "completely destroyed" is too low a bar.
should be:
"their lives aren't full of this kind of risk"
I'm not saying that everyone enjoys that, or that we should keep those jobs around because I found it fun. But don't assume that just because a job seems menial to you that it must be horrible for everyone who's doing it.
Lots of humans today pay good money to get a chance to go out into the woods and spend an entire day chasing down prey.
Who knows, in a couple of hundred years we might have people romanticizing spending all day in a cubicle working at a mid-sized accounting firm :)
I object. I can't tell what someone else feels is satisfying and I believe you can't either.
Have experiences and relationships with all types of people and jobs. I have and agree with Mike Rowe. The happiest group of people he ever worked with were those he filmed and performed dirty jobs with.
After freeing myself from the stigma of a professional job I gained more happiness with much less responsibility and much more free time. Like those jobs you mentioned. If I had known that when I was on call awaiting for the next system to crash only to get interrupted time and time again I would have intentionally changed careers faster.
Those guys/gals may actually enjoy manual labor - some people just can stand the thought of being cooped up behind a desk in a stuffy office (or at least that's how they may envision it).
Though I will say that anyone dealing with insulation - especially in a place like NYC - who doesn't wear a minimum of safety equipment (goggles, gloves, respirator or dust mask) is just begging for asbestos-related health problems down the road (heck, even regular insulation can cause respiratory health problems over time).
Instead of converting productivity into less work we turned it into more profit. That's a bad trade.
Except I don't consider the products that allow production (factory, machines etc) to be the means, so much as access to those products on the market, lines of credit, land ownership on which to put a factory etc.
production needs to be achievable for anyone, otherwise you have an effective monopoly. Means of production should be considered akin to a basic utility.
The idea is that if we can automate "everything" (i.e. everything that can be automated), then we'll be left with human-only services. Since humans are scarce, and there will be rising demand from the income effect, people can still perfectly live off exchanging services.
I'm not sure that makes macroeconomic sense, so if someone wants to clarify misunderstandings for me, I'd be happy to hear it.
Assuming the jobless people will have less income than if they worked, and more time to do stuff themselves (some of the services industry is essentially something that you'd prefer to make yourself but you're paying to save yourself some time) demand for service jobs would decrease, again driving down the price for services lower than it is now.
I don't think the set of possible jobs is limited to either existing jobs, or in particular waiters and Walmart greeters. That's kind of the point. We invent new jobs all the time. Won't we come up with jobs that cannot be automated, or that we'd rather be performed by humans?
> Assuming the jobless people will have less income than if they worked
Well, that's more of a tautology than an assumption, and fails to engage with the scenario highlighted above. The point is that people will get other "jobs." (I put it in quotation marks because I'm pretty sure that people will get paid to do things we'd never thought of as "jobs" at some point).
Of course, S&D still works the same way. But human desire is pretty much infinite, and we can always come up with new jobs and new markets. The idea that all of them will be desirably automateable seems unproven to me.
Yes, it's possible that some new habits will create some new professions in time, however, for the short term (e.g. the next 5 years) such new occupations won't create millions of jobs (e.g. because unless right now millions of people would be preparing for them, the people won't be ready so soon) while automation will put millions of people out of these jobs. Who knows to what equilibrium it will come out eventually, but in the short term the labor supply will be dominating over demand and the price (and perceived value) of labor will continue to fall.
Seems to me that humans will be in surplus? It depends on what price must be payed for the automated things, which I assume won't be free?
> Instead of converting productivity into less work we turned it into more profit. That's a bad trade.
That said, he raises valid points. If a machine can do a better job for less money, why shouldn't a machine do it? But he fails to mention hidden costs. What do we do with the workers who lose their jobs to machines? Eventually there will be no work to retrain them to do.
I can envision a future where machines build other machines and there's just a few executives remaining at the top of some companies, collecting ever-increasing profits as workers are eliminated.
I want to say that a universal basic income will alleviate the problem, but are there other options? How do we live in a world where work has been mostly eliminated?
I truly enjoy things that someone made by hand. The quality isn't even always important. I buy chests and trunks and shop-built tools even when they're not particularly good quality. I enjoy them, they're unique, and they have a story that you can sometimes decipher from the tooling marks and clues left in the wood.
I think such things will always fetch a premium, and perhaps when robots can take care of all the immediate issues--manufacturing, delivery, food production, whatever--then we will see a sort of reversal and people will start to pursue some more intimate, small-scale creation.
Off the top of my head, I can think of quite a number of things I enjoy that robots can't provide for me (yet?): home-made baked goods, pasture-raised eggs, hand-created furniture/kitchen items/artwork, learning, creativity (with a personal story, especially!), well-trained animals, etc.
That said, I'm not a typical consumer, and those things I'm interested in are also things I am interested in producing myself.
Still, I would not be surprised to see a barter type of economy spring up alongside a basic income.
In the American economy of 2017 if you don't have scale, pop, leverage, access to the discount window etc... you are going to be poor or close to it.
The work of human in the author's world is designing machines and automate the next step of tasks that haven't been done or spend time on doing more creative tasks and be more inventive.
Still, that doesn't solve the problem of how do people put food on the table? We can't all build and design machines.
This doesn't work so well when goods are scarce, but...
Partly I feel one of the best things we can do is redesign grade school, say from 7th-12th grade. The majority of it would be the same I guess..but there would be a strong orientation towards teaching individuals how to invest and trade; let them get hands on experience in actually doing it and so forth. We'd develop a universal basic income that people would start getting after graduation. They can invest/trade with it. This is not going to be the sole income point, but instead they can use that to pay for school.
Some wont want to get an education, which I understand. So they do other things that young adults attempt to do, start bands and what not. Many will fail at that particular attempt; but hey they get basic income and know how to trade with it so they at least wont starve.
I think skills like crafts will be important too despite robots. One if you know how to make a good hand made suit you are set, the rich are your clients. Blacksmithing odd items could be something in demand. A hobby of mine is working with metal, I make a lot of cool stuff, sometimes I sell or trade, but usually I keep and forget about it.. usually until someone offers to buy it. Either or, I think the future is not so bleak, we just need basic income, maybe fix the schools a little bit, encourage people to get PhDs, and also spread y combinators about.
Long version:
As Hyman Minsky* points out, financial capitalism is inherently unstable, in the sense of having perturbations that are big enough and frequent enough to transform the lives of individual human beings. Our impending wave of automation is one of those perturbations.
We're probably not going to get rid of capitalism anytime soon, and even if we did that through violent revolution, the resulting perturbations would almost certainly be worse. So we've got to adjust what we've got. Plus, capitalism does have some good features.
We could literally ban robots from taking some kinds of jobs, but that's a temporary fix, and do we honestly want people driving trucks all night, hopped up on drugs, in order to feed their family that they never see? We should get rid of shitty jobs where we can.
I'm not sold on universal basic income. It's really expensive, and it eliminates one of the best features of capitalism, which is working for your money. Working for your money gives people meaning, purpose, and a network of human relationships, which help promote a healthy society where people feel valuable and valued.
So how about this: universal basic employment. The government literally guarantees everybody a job. At a living wage, for a reasonable time commitment (less than 40 hours a week, I hope). As the capitalistic side of the economy shrinks, government automatically creates jobs to pick up the slack.
Capitalism coupled to an adaptive socialist job-creation program.
BUT WAIT, you scream, THAT WILL JUST EXPAND FEDERAL BUREAUCRACY AND EVERYONE WILL END UP EMPLOYED IN A SOCIALIST HELL!
Devil, details. I would argue that a related deep issue in American society is the breakdown of our local communities. So let's kill two birds with one stone: build an adaptive hierarchy of taxpayer-funded job creation driven from the bottom up.
Local councils meet with their neighbors, figure out the kinds of things that need to be done, built, whatever in their communities, match their needs with the local unemployed talent pool. Counties monitor the local needs. States monitor the county needs. And the feds feed money as needed and operate with a light touch.
All these local community jobs pay the same, and it's a living wage. This serves as a soft wage floor in place of a hard minimum wage. It's a bit like an Americorps that pays enough to support you and your family, all the time, for anyone that needs a job. It has a lot of features of the New Deal, actually.
* Underappreciated economist, newly resurgent since the 2008 financial crisis. If you took some economics classes in college, you should be able to understand his writing, but he's not a great writer. I'm just barely getting familiar with standard economic terminology, so his stuff has been a really hard slog.
I'd argue that what your are proposing is both "universal" and "basic income", it's a variation of the usually proposed UBI, that in my opinion tries to deal with one of the main risks of such a system. A percentage of people (even if perhaps small) just doing nothing and the moral effect of that on the rest of the population.
I once made a comment in HN along the same lines, local community work..., it made me smile to see in your comment something so similar to what I tried to express, however I'm not a native speaker and the comment was probably not clear enough.
And yours made me smile. I hope some of these ideas catch on.
The problem this has is that it fails to provide the one thing that UBI (and, a number of the existing benefit programs that UBI is proposed to replace) provide or would provide, support for effective retraining and other support for labor market mobility.
Well, I mean, the problem beside the fact that it's top-down central planning in the Leninist mold.
Imagine a hack attack or bug (it happens) that causes all terminals to stop working for 12 hours on the airport like JFK. What would be the losses? Would it be still worth it?
In my opinion AI should complement humans, not substitute them. The word is not working in A and B scenarios only, there is always more options.
We already get hours-long mainframe outages, not to mention weather shutting down airports entirely. The system survives just fine.
I often wonder if those outages aren't sometimes caused by hackers to begin with. Publicizing them as hacks would only serve to cause panic, and let other hackers know how vulnerable their systems are.
Somebody probably tried to solve a real-time problem with a web client, and the result sucks. There's certainly enough CPU power locally to do this locally, but no, it has to be "in the cloud" now.
Because you need the people with the domain knowledge to handle the exceptional cases anyway.
Many years ago I was flying Continental from MSP to CLE. Cleveland proceeded to get 2 feet of snow over about 5 hours. The humans at Continental rebooked me onto the next 3 Continental flights, and then the following 2 Northwest flights before CLE threw in the towel for the day[0].
You don't want to expose that level of functionality to the lay person, and if you automate it, you run the risk of creating a system so hide-bound by its rules, it can't respond appropriately either. Just like the one that wouldn't let the author check in 57 minutes before his flight[1].
At this point in time, humans still have the edge on having local knowledge and the good judgment to apply it to the exceptional situations.
The real purpose of the flight attendants is to get your ass of the plane in an emergency; serving drinks and snacks just justifies their presence the rest of the time. Similarly check-in and gate agents are there to fix problems when they arise, in the last 10 years or so, the ability to check you in is pretty much secondary (modulo oversize bags, etc, which are just another example of exceptions).
[0] We got home the next day on the first flight. I'm sure the folks in Cleveland had a much rougher time getting to their destinations.
[1] Been there done that on an LGW to CLE flight back in the day. Also watched my original flight board from across the concourse where I was booked on a flight through EWR that departed a mere 10 minutes after the CLE flight.
If there isn't a system for overrides available then no person is required.
The trick is to have humans available for the weird situations while not wasting their time on routine matters; the approach some banks use, of "ATMs are free, but there's a fee for any teller-assisted transactions which you could have done at an ATM" seems to work pretty well.
> the clerk, who had apparently been craving some human touch points herself, had left her post to converse with the other clerk on the far side of the store. I ventured across the store to give them my money and was made to feel like I had barged into their private living room, demanding to be served
Was "abroad" France? Sounds like it (I'm French).
Anyway, the problem with AI isn't that we'll miss the so-called, and probably non-existent, "human touch". It's that it doesn't work.
(Examples given in the article, of vending machines and automated checkout, don't have much to do with AI).
See translation for example. It's not that automatic translations are bad, it's that they're incomprehensible: you couldn't guess what the text means if your life depended on it.
In Europe, Amazon offers to translate your listing in all marketplaces' languages (English, German, French, Spanish, Italian) when you create it for just one; that produces gibberish and results in zero sales, until you use an professional (human) translator.
Google translate, despite their recent bragging about a revolutionary update, is no better. Small example: in French, "coup de coeur" means something you love at first sight ("j'ai eu un coup de coeur pour cet appartement" => I fell in love with this place at first sight). But Google translate translates "coup de coeur" with "heart stroke"
https://translate.google.fr/#fr/en/coup%20de%20coeur
which is beyond wrong (in no context ever can this meaning ever occur). I noticed this because on some forum a user was describing his blogging activity as writing about his heart strokes and I wondered how many he had had and how it was possible to still blog about them.
Back to human interactions: machines are great when the outcome is discrete and completely predictable; using a vending machine, buying things from Amazon, checking in at the airport, etc.
But when some creativity is needed, machines can become super annoying; calling customer support and finding oneself interacting with a robot makes you want to murder someone (but there isn't anyone left to murder).
Eh, seems like the problem here was not humans, but a machine that had been programmed in a terminally inflexible manner.
Which is what most people are worried about, when handing over control to machines, isn't it? With a human, there is always the chance that you might be able to negotiate some exemption from the rules, to make your life easier. With a machine you're stuck with whatever rules are programmed to it (or it has learned etc). Even the best adaptive systems we have available are not very flexible, unfortunately.
This is really a huge problem that's not going to be solved by sneering at the older generation who "need to ask their grandchildren what a tweet is" 'cause they just don't get it etc. I mean, maybe let's pause here and remember we'll all grow old too, one day, right? If we keep making machines that need a young person's familiarity with technology to operate correctly, we'll never get systems that make everyone's life easier.
No, you damn robot, I just want to use my goddamn cart. Please shut the everloving-hell up about it instead of making me fumble for some "skip bagging" button on a shitty resistive touchscreen that doesn't register half the time.
The only reason I bother with them is because the lines are shorter. Otherwise, I'd rather just go to a regular checkout line, with a checker who's way better at scanning items than I am and (depending on the store) a bagger who's way better at bagging than I am.
Customer service is all about flexibility and resolving problems. That means giving humans discretion to act.
That manifests in different ways. One night I was stuck working until the wee hours and walked into my hotel (a Hampton Inn, not a posh place), checked in and headed up to my room. I hadn't eaten, was soaked by the driving rain and was generally miserable.
The night auditor sent a maintenance guy up with extra towels, a frozen TV dinner and some sleepy time tea. That isn't a full service hotel, and she didn't need to do anything. But she did.
People hate arbritary rules. When Target treated people returning things like criminals, they angered lots of people and lost customers. Meanwhile Walmart is pretty hassle free, employees can only say "no" in specific circumstances.
Self checkouts for grocery have been around for a decade. But they rarely take over -- there's a reason.
I like and use the self-service points at McDonalds mostly to avoid:
1) groups of school kids who can't decide who pays for what/who wants what/must order as a group and dealing with the money distribution... when there's a 12-people-line behind them
2) Language barriers: Let's just say that (in Germany, at least) fluent German is not always a job requirement. Or fluent English - especially bad on fastfood shops in train stations.
3) when ordering for groups, it's easier to be able to directly type in what you want instead of hoping that the cashier correctly gets what you want (see #2)
While those refusing to order on a self-service station still are in the line and wait, I'm happily munching burgers.
In that situation, I really want someone else's help with scanning, paying for, and bagging everything. I imagine people with permanent impediments would also prefer human help.
Doesn't the authors argument go the other way: make labour cheap enough (with a guaranteed minimum income) that every patron can have a dedicated shopping assistant & the business can save money on expensive software and inflexible machines?
As a consumer, as long as there is one good self-service option I'm happy. When I'm in the car with two kids and need to get petrol, I'll drive the extra distance to pay at the pump rather than having to go into the store.
I don't think all companies need to go down this route. There's value in segmentation for those customers who can't or won't embrace technology. Take the recent OECD survey on computer skills [1]: only a third of people can complete medium-complexity tasks.
Another data point is New Jersey, where gas attendants are required: http://mentalfloss.com/article/74549/why-cant-you-pump-your-...
Also, one very minor gas station-related automation point: if you run a gas station, and take the clip out of the pump nozzle, so that your customers are forced to stand there and squeeze the trigger the whole time they are fueling, rather than setting it and letting it click off when the tank is full, you should burn in hell.
A Leatherman is just about the right size to jam in there and hold the trigger open if the metal clip has been removed.
I recently watched a TV show in which someone toured a factory that made crisps (potato chips). At one point they were frying in a fryer roughly the size of a childs paddling pool. Someone with a rake (I believe it was a standard garden rake) stood beside it and occasionally stirred. They stated this was what let them put "hand made" on their packaging.
"Hey, you got milk. Why not add a 4 pack of Oreos for 5% off? They are right behind you!"
Here's a burger blogger with a video review of him trying one out: http://burgerlad.com/2015/02/mcdonalds-touch-screen-ordering...
there is room for both because the capabilities of people varies and some do need assistance. if the unmanned position is not being used frequently or has complaints then business needs to jump on it quickly to make people understand it will work and work well but at teh same time, keep a few people to humanize the area
Check the video, it's very hilarious.
truth they could fix their system, but there are other rare scenarios not worth implementing
Sarcasm was certainly intended.