His point was trying to bet against a momentum trade or some other scenario was foolish. He watched time and again. There were opportunities to get with the crowd, or be on the wrong side.
His point was trying to bet against a momentum trade or some other scenario was foolish. He watched time and again. There were opportunities to get with the crowd, or be on the wrong side.
A friend who works in quant finance said something along the lines of "if a trader can identify a mom-and-pop investor, it's like taking candy from a baby" in terms of making an easy profit.
Sure HFT guys are faster than you to get short term signals and make money on the micro scale - but even ignoring that way too many people are thinking they're beating the market and they really really aren't.
But that's a great point that any kind of active trading strategy needs to be compared against the right index. I think this holds true for pension/sovereign funds which invest in multiple hedge funds as well - comparing to the overall market performance may be less relevant than comparing to sector-weighted market performance, for example.