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> it's just [when] the casino cottons on that you're doing it

And maybe not even then. With the incomplete mitigations that casinos already put in for card-counting (multiple decks, etc.), card-counting is tricky and has a very small edge. Consequently, just as casinos know they make money from people with "strategies" with no statistical validity, they know they make money from people who think they can count cards well enough to get an edge but who can't.

This. I've talked to several people who work in casino surveillance. They all said that if they think you're counting, the very first thing they'll do is assign an agent (or maybe a computer, these days) to count along with you.

Make an error or two (vs. perfect counting strategy), and they'll let you keep going, because long-term they'll still have an edge. Count/play perfectly and you'll get backed off or 86'ed.

say you're playing a $5 game and your bankroll is $100. If you make one mistake, either at counting or basic strategy, you just gave up 5% of your ROI, over 3x the "edge" you get by counting. I remember hearing the slogan "If you can't play absolutely perfect basic strategy for hours at a time without making a single mistake, counting is not for you".

Your bankroll needs to be much higher than that to withstand the expected variance. Your edge shouldn't really depend on the size of the bets.

Which prompts the question of whether anyone starts off with an error or two to 'beat' this check.

Obviously errors aren't sustainable, since the edge is so small, but I wonder if it might be possible to open with an error so you can stick around a little longer before someone checks back in and bars you. More broadly - are counters these days trying not to get noticed, or trying not to get banned?

Once you start winning a good bit of money, the casino is going to be very aware of you. It's their business to know their customers, whether they are cheats or high rollers. If you show up with not a lot of money but win a lot, they are going to watch you. You may not automatically be dinged as a cheater because you give the house their cut every now and then but they know what you are doing. It's only until the point where you begin to eat into their profits that you will be shown the door. The casino knows how much money they need to pull in a night to be successful. This is why big spenders get free stuff.

It really depends on what type of game you are trying to cheat if you are avoiding detection or avoiding a ban. With slot machines, if they think you are up to any mischief, you will face legal issues. As for cards, the casino is going to be aware of your activities if they have any inkling of things like card counting. The dealers know what to look for and you will be watched. The casino is just trying to make sure you don't take too much from them but they also want you to keep winning, it makes others around you think they have a chance too. Make a few mistakes here and there and you delay the moment when they tell you to get lost for the night. You will get noticed so your only option is to just avoid getting banned.

You want to be a bit careful with your terminology: messing with a slot machine is cheating and will get you arrested, counting cards is NOT cheating nor illegal, but will get you backed off or trespassed if you're good at it.

They other key tip off to get someone assigned to you is your betting patterns.

It's well known that when you're counting cards, there is always a swing to when the player has an advantage. If you're upping your bets when you have the advantage, and then lowering them when the house has the advantage, they'll usually stop you from playing at the blackjack tables and either ask you to leave, or tell you to play something else where they have the advantage, like slots.

It's also well known (it's even a movie!) that the counter and the person taking advantage of the count has to be separate people.

I assume casinos use infinite shoes now so it's not even an issue?

Not all casinos, and not even all tables within the same casino. Many of the Vegas casinos will have infinite shuffle machines on the lower-value tables ($5/10 per hand minimum) but have standard 6- or 8-shoe decks on the higher-value tables. The other trend lately is to make the rules less favorable on cheap tables (H17, no resplit, no DAS, etc.) and force you to go to a $25, $50, or even $100/hand table to get the player-favorable rules.

That's why the big threat is teams.

The one actually doing the counting can play haphazardly and consistently lose money but they will covertly signal the partner who comes in with big bets when the situation is advantageous. The big better plays until the count favors the house again and then walks away. The counter keeps at it until the odds are again against the house and then they'll signal the next big better to come in and so on and so on until they win their set amount and move on to the next casino.

It's not illegal. It's not unethical. It's merely unprofitable for the casino and they'll ban you if they figure out that you're doing it.

> ...but the casino would certainly let someone next to you give you advice or help, because unless that person is counting cards they're still going to have a house edge (and it's pretty easy to tell when someone is counting, because you'll start making plays that would otherwise be in the house's favor).

It will, if you're a world famous gambler:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13226725

> because they'll think you might be using it to count cards.

Isn't card counting mitigated with modern shufflers that produce an entirely fresh deck at the start of each play?