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Comment by nunez | Hacker News Reader

I actually predict Amazon beating Walmart in the long term; brick and mortar stores are losing relevance fast especially with drone delivery becoming a reality "soon"

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I think you're underestimating the value of Walmart. Sure for things you can wait to get in 2 day shipping, it's a no brainer compared to driving to Barnes & Noble, or BestBuy. But a large part of the US still shops at brick and mortar stores because they want/need things "right now." Walmart is still a juggernaut, especially in smaller cities, rural areas.

And drone delivery... I don't see that being successful for Amazon for another 10 years. Too many technical, legal, and cultural hurdles for that to happen faster, if ever.

How immediate is "right now"? If you have to drive 45 minutes to the store and back, is that "right now"? If Amazon can deliver it two hours from when you place your order (which they already do in some cases), is that "right now"?

I also see a trip to the store as a chore, but I see Wal-Mart as being uniquely positioned to do 1-hour delivery from their own stores - which are essentially localized warehouses across most of the U.S.

If you have a 90-minute round trip to the store, odds are Amazon won't be delivering anything in 2 hours.

If you've got to drive 45 minutes just to get to a Walmart, Im not sure you live in a population center large enough for Amazon to offer two hour delivery.

Lol, it can be an hour or more depending on traffic to go to Walmart from Seattle, and your choices are either going far north, or far south. I only ever find myself there when I need a cable modem at 2am, and especially then its always a terrible experience. If I can be out by 4am then that is a quick trip!

I live in Downtown Seattle and it would take me at least an hour to get to the nearest ones unless it was maybe 3 AM and there was no traffic.

Less than an hour. I think that is the threshold between "I'll order this on amazon" and "I'll get it at Walmart."

Walmart also a community center in many small towns. That's not going away.

So Walmart gets reduced to things you need right now, i.e. groceries and random low cost convenience items.

Population has been shifting from rural to urban for decades, Walmart's advantage is in a shrinking market.

Drone delivery is marketing nonsense anyway.

Yes that's true...for now. People like convenience. Drones, same day shipping, same hour shipping...those are convenient. Wal*Mart has the real estate but I still think the writing is on the wall for them UNLESS they compete with Amazon in this area.

I will take back my comment when I can order something from Walmart online and get it within an hour. In fact, Walmart is BEST positioned to do this BECAUSE every one of their stores is a de facto warehouse and they have a ridiculous headcount

It's a bit early to divine the impact of drone delivery. There's a large gulf between novelty prototype and widespread adoption. If anything I see Amazon winning due to better tech R&D. The fact they're experimenting with drone delivery points to them being able to identify opportunity before their competitors. That's a competitive advantage that can translate to real growth.

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