Why are they screwed? Where is it written that four probably smart and dedicated guys must fail? Because they will have a few month without financial problems? Because they have momentum and support? really.
It's a nasty post to kill the finance momentum.
Please: J. Fried JUST FIGHTS FUTURE COMPETITION. Facebook is a central hub. Basecamp is a central hub. That's the whole story. A project management plug-in to Diaspora that can freely connect people is a threat to Basecamp.
When Google introduced their free chat client, a full product ready to use, he complained about "evil" (and forced us to pay for campfire). Now they are not evil, than it's the product.