Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)
wikileaks.org
wikileaks.org
Just weeks after passing out of training I had a draft for HMS Victorious. My work mates started calling me a terrorist robot because I remembered everything and I have a Northern Ireland accent. This reputation would have undoubtedly made it difficult for me to gather information. I needed to create distance between them, and create a knew persona; I aimed for mixture of dumbness and eagerness to learn for simple curios reasons. Within days of being on patrol I was no longer the terrorist robot, soaking up all the information for terrorist reasons. Playing dumb came easy for me, I've been doing it and been it most of life. It makes people open up and explain a lot more. If someone assumes you know something they might leave that part out of the conversation, meaning you've just lost information which might have been valuable. It also helps with getting out of certain situations. I watched a lot of Columbo when I was a kid.
On a similar armament note, from edge's "2006: What is your dangerous idea?" [0]
> "The idea that we understand plutonium"
> The most dangerous idea I have come across recently is the idea that we understand plutonium. Plutonium is the most complex element in the periodic table. It has six different crystal phases between room temperature and its melting point. It can catch fire spontaneously in the presence of water vapor and if you inhale minuscule amounts you will die of lung cancer. It is the principle element in the "pits" that are the explosive cores of nuclear weapons. In these pits it is alloyed with gallium. No one knows why this works and no one can be sure how stable this alloy is. These pits, in the thousands, are now decades old. What is dangerous is the idea that they have retained their integrity and can be safely stored into the indefinite future.
Frankly: this is wikileaks. I'm giving it the side-eye these days.
Jeremy Bernstein
Professor Emeritus, Stevens Institute of Technology; Former Staff Writer, The New Yorker
- https://www.edge.org/response-detail/10660
and:
Bernstein studied at Harvard University, receiving his bachelor's degree in 1951, masters in 1953, and Ph.D. in 1955, on electromagnetic properties of deuterium, under Julian Schwinger. As a theoretical physicist, he worked on elementary particle physics and cosmology. A summer spent in Los Alamos led to a position at the Institute for Advanced Study.[2] In 1962 he became a faculty member at New York University, moving to become a professor of physics at Stevens Institute of Technology in 1967, a position that he continues to hold as Professor Emeritus.[3] He has held adjunct or visiting positions at the Brookhaven National Laboratory, CERN, Oxford, the University of Islamabad, and the Ecole Polytechnique.[4]
He was also involved in Project Orion, investigating the potential for nuclear pulse propulsion for use in space travel.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Bernstein#Education_and...
I didn't check wikipedia's references, but it looks to be worth more than the side-eye.
Would you like to provide any valuable content? I mean [non-alternative] factual content.
Please understand that it is not of interest for the public what you think about wikileaks. Thanks!
Water is also unstable, I can't keep track of how many non-hexagonal ice structures exist under some weird pressure and temp diagram. 12 or so, maybe. You put ice under a couple hundred MPa and it gets all funky.
On the topic of allotropes its depressing when you think everything out there has allotropes except thankfully maybe the nobel gasses like helium and then oh God there's liquid helium-II which isn't really an allotrope but its conceptually similar.
It seems that most of learning chemistry is learning nothing is stable and nothing is as it superficially seems. Plutonium is scary creepy but for better or worse its not unusual.
Do you have a story that backs up the claim?
https://brusselsdiplomatic.com/2017/01/22/trident-accident-p...
Specifically this part describing how May dodged the question multiple times. The 'vote' being the vote by Parliament on whether to renew funding for the Trident system:
Questioned by the BBC's Andrew Marr on Sunday, Prime Minister Theresa May refused four times to say if she had known about the test firing ahead of the vote.
Mrs May said: "I have absolute faith in our Trident missiles. When I made that speech in the House of Commons, what we were talking about was whether or not we should renew our Trident."
Oh, except apparently it 'veered' towards the US. And this was before the vote to renew, so naturally people are trying to call it a cover up.
According to the Sunday Times, the unarmed Trident II D5 missile was intended to be fired 5,600 miles (9,012 km) from the coast of Florida to a sea target off the west coast of Africa - but veered towards the US.
It's like an executive team discussing whether to adopt a mobile-first strategy and then someone blurts 'but Galaxy 7 phones caught fire!'.
It's more like an executive team discussing whether or not to equip the entire company with Galaxy Note 7 phones, and the CEO not mentioning the fires.
I would also expect a politician to mention that failure mode is a possibility when politicians are considering spending £30b on renewing it.
Missiles will go wrong, Trident actually has a fairly reasonable level of success and probably is far more reliable than equivalent weapons from other countries.
It's a political mess not a military/technical one.
It's also worth pointing out that if the UK ever needed to use Trident then the resultant nuclear fallout would probably cause that anyway.
Yes, in the "test" last year (that is, the missile luckily didn't carry the real nuclear bomb) the missile was launched to arrive around the coast of Africa but it flew toward Florida! There's no more obvious miss than that.
That's the very "Trident "accident" which May did not disclose to Parliament" from the top post of this thread.
And the reason we should really press all the politicians for the reduction of nuclear weapons. It's not the question of if but when and what the consequences will be of the "accidental" detonations.
The best protection is to have at least a very limited number of weapons. The balance of power can be held even with a little of them.
If you hear anything else, it's from those that don't want the balance but to "win."
For some perspective the new Russian Bulava ICBM has a 50% error rate, Minuteman had a 97.1% success rate, Trident II was on 97.27% (128 successes, 5 failures) - increasing that number to 6 doesn't really alter the confidence factor that the system works.
If your concern is large rockets being fired that might hit the southern US and cause casualties then I suggest you contact NASA about Cape Canaveral.
So how can you claim that everything is OK or that my point is inaccurate? Or that "it can't fail"? You literally asked "is there any evidence whatsoever that the missile could fail" ... "obliterating tens of thousands of people in the wrong country." That it didn't happen during the test without the nuclear head and when there are additional safety measures is not a proof it can't once the head is in place and the "regular procedure" is followed.
The quote around the test means only that I am aware that what's for some people an "accident" is "just a test" for another, like your view.
I don't claim anything more than the public doesn't understand how brittle the whole system is, different parts of it failing all the time. I've written that once the public understands that, knowing that is "the reason we should really press all the politicians for the reduction of nuclear weapons. It's not the question of if but when and what the consequences will be of the "accidental" detonations."
I also wrote: "The best protection is to have at least a very limited number of weapons. The balance of power can be held even with a little of them." I've meant "nuclear" weapons of course, that's the whole topic. See: http://thebulletin.org/doomsday-dashboard There were 6 times more warheads in 1983 than now, and the number should be reduced much more.
> fail safes built into the system
How does that fail safe knows the rocket is wrong when the rocket decided it's right? Do you have any information about these particular fail safes? Isn't it that it existed there at all because it was a test, and it wouldn't if it hadn't been? The coverage of the "accident" that I've had an access to wasn't technical enough. It was presented as "it has to remain secret."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trident_nuclear_programme#Trid...
I am glad my whistleblowing moment passed because recent history (last 30 years) tells me you do not want to become one.
Can you go into further detail? Not asking to reveal what you don't want to, but I am of course curious what you mean.
The moment passed because I chose to leave. I took the easy route to solving the problem for me, but its still costing people billions.
I'm wondering what this software did, or what sector this was in. Obviously I'm just curious for curiosity's sake, but I guess the actionable bit of what I'm asking is whether what you experienced was endemic to the industry it was in, or if (more broadly) there's anything I can file away (other than the major red flags you described) to help me know whether I'm on a path that will lead to this type of insanity.
>We need to slow down, refactor what we can, rewrite what we cannot, the costs will be huge but the consequences of not doing it worse.
What's this "we" business? Are you volunteering for the job? There's not many people willing to work on such systems because there's obvious moral problems with them, and this means that the people you can get to work on them are probably not the most competent people around. I don't really see a solution for this. Either you force the "best and brightest" to leave Silicon Valley and go to someplace they don't want to live and work on WMDs that they are morally opposed to (doesn't sound like a recipe for quality work to me), or you have not-so-competent people working on them (also not a recipe for quality work). Maybe we should be rethinking our use of these things. Of course, that's not going to happen; our leaders insist on having them (and now want many more of them apparently), and the half of the population that voted for these leaders want them too (even though they're not smart enough to build them themselves).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link
Even in the event of fire, explosion, etc warheads are
unlikely to detonate unintended. Missle failures are quite
common and a few have happened during atmospheric nuke
tests and no detonation occured and many of these test
weapons had few of the safeguards on duty weapons have.Not sure why Trump gets the blame for things that already happened on Obama's watch.
There is a huge pile of problems anybody must settle before the US can demand Russia to free the Crimea (and one of them is actually establishing that Crimea wants to be freed).
It's also ok to solve problems separately, they don't all have to be solved at the same time or in a particular order.
I don't think anybody even tried.
Same "peaceniks" attitude was expressed about Hitler anschluss.
We all knew what happened next.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
[NB And making really big H-bombs isn't that difficult or indeed very useful other than for bragging rights - which was the point of this device].
Interestingly, it appears to be propaganda only intended for internal consumption in former USSR.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_NATO_chronolo...
http://iran-si.org/images/docs/000001/001067/images/NATOExpa...
Then Google for US and NATO military bases.
The testimony of the leaker is full of references to the Americans supposedly doing things better and more professionally. If true, that is surely a funding issue.
This rant pretty much falls into what every sailor that hates their job dreams about doing. Though they normally end up sadding out before it gets to this point (using real or fake psychological issues to disqualify themselves).
As it stands right now "everyone knows" that IT companies are skirting and breaking the law(s) when it comes to data collection and retention. It's just that it's such a huge and intentionally opaque subject that it's impossible to make good laws or even enforce them. Now let's say you have an almost senior person at one of the big 3 (or whatever number it's at now) that decides they're going give to high ranking elected officials every bit of data the company has them, their spouse, and their children (say Germany since their laws are pretty strict and have cultural history behind their laws) who that data has been sold to, how it's used, and similar. Then further more gives hints that there is knowledge inside that the company knew it was/might have breaking/broke x laws.
The first thoughts are going to be fanboy/hate, there are better ways to do this, why are they even keeping that job, and similar.
Also seeing how IT people react to sexual harassment claims I expect attacks that are just attacks. Rather than answering what can be of the question, and attempting* to satisfy some curiosity (which I attempted to do).
*rather horribly now that you've pointed it out. And sadly falling into other bad practices to explain what I see in the link for this post .
"they would deviate from set procedures because the procedures can be “long and winding.” He said “sometimes you just know that you can adjust a valve slightly and that would solve the problem. Following the procedures might take you down a long and winding path.” You might think that's no big deal, just an engineer using his engineering skills; if he was caught doing this kind of action on an American submarine it would cost him his job and possibly his freedom. If you work on the Strategic Weapon System you must follow the procedures, mistakes can be catastrophic."
What I read is just that he doesn't understand the issues. The engineers make something and make the consoles sounding "alarm" for many various reasons. They also make the documents of the "standard procedures" to follow.
Now some alarms are in use observed to happen too often. That's a clear problem in how the thing was designed. The cleanest response would be to redesign the devices, or at least the documents of the standard procedures to include the "shortcut checks."
But in his specific case it's just the people on duty that passed their knowledge from one to another. Maybe they even tried to initiate change in the documents or even asked for the redesign and failed.
So they are not wrong for doing what they are doing, it's just that the system doesn't care enough for the feedback from "the trenches."
Which happens everywhere.
In that light, all non-engineers or people not being "in the trenches" with the technical equipment really have too idealized understanding that the things "just work." No they don't, everything fails all the time.
Which is why we really should press the politicians to reduce the number of nuclear weapons. Sooner or later there will be some very nasty failure, an unintended accident, and it's a big difference if that failure doesn't destroy the whole civilization at once.
He personally seems to have expected everything to function like in the movies, and it can be clearly seen how he is always surprised it isn't so, up to the point that they could have all died in the submarine just because of the fire that started due to the toilet paper!
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/world-war-three-by-m...
> The navy described his dossier as “subjective and unsubstantiated” and launched an inquiry that concluded by dismissing his allegations as “factually incorrect or the result of misunderstanding or partial understanding”...He was discharged “on the claim that my sole aim was to discredit their public image”, he says.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/17/trident-whis...
I mean, I don't know what he expected...
Part of me wonders if WikiLeaks is the modern-day Blighty wound: want to leave, can't leave for X months, make something up, get discharged for discrediting public image.
I certainly don't subscribe to "I pay my taxes; I've a right to know ...!" which is incorrect, silly, and less secure for all of us.
He has censored some of the most sensitive information for security reasons.
This is not about "I have a right to know", this is about the risk of a nuclear accident or terrorist attack because of gross negligence, and the chain of command attempting to silence it.
To much of the US and even the UK, have this idea of the monarchy as vestigle forms of the state required only for ceremonious pomp and ceremony, but I would venture to say this is not much more than a well placed propaganda myth. I say this because understanding the history of relations between the US and the UK, I propose, can never be understood properly until one gets past this first point.
To review a timeline of relations between the two countries, allow me to refresh your memory of times in which then GB opposed the US. Of course, the revolutionary war, and the war of 1812 with the burning of the whitehouse and the capitol, but the one I feel most misunderstood and mistaught in schools is the civil war, in which Britain openly sponsored the confederate states in an effort to undermine it's traditional enemy. After this is where the "mainstream history" goes off the rails and, due to WW1/2, pretends there was little animosty remaining due to the great alliance needed to defeat the enemy.
King Edward VII, often mistold in the histories as a gallavanting playboy, was actually instrumental in establishing the encircling alliances leading up to the first (and hence the second) world war. Through Sir Edward Grey (Yes, the tea), who controlled Edward House, Woodrow Wilson was pushed into the war despite the fact he had campaigned on not doing so. Of course after WW1 the issue of naval supremecy was a primary pain for both, which is why in naval parlance the Paris Peace conference is referred to as the Naval Battle of Paris. Admiral Benson of the US, during a meeting in which a British Sea Lord was found proding a secretary for information about the US's postwar naval building plans, said of Britains desire to maintain naval supremecy; “[...]it will mean but one thing[...] war between Great Britain and the United States.”[1] Of course, you mention war plan red, but the mistake is to dismiss it as a dusty old plan never intended for use. It was very much part of a real potential response to the entangled alliances developing. It was worked on up to 1936, by none other than Douglass McArthur.
As for WW2, the propaganda primarily centerred around anglo-american unity centered on the Atlantic Charter and it's four freedoms, even though Churchill later said the four freedoms did not apply to the British Empire, or even outside of Europe. This is where it gets more complicated, because it's mostly all about old war plan maps and the military pushback of the US against plans laid out by the UK. Only a handful of generals were able to comprehend the game GB was playing at manipulating how bloody the pacific campaign would be in order to influence the post war balance of power. McArthur was one of them, and his initial pushback against the proposed Brisbane line was only the first in many such political-strategic military moves to counter the traps set by Churchill. This pushback is what moved the lines of battle into New Guinea and the Owen Stanely mountain range. I come from a long line of military men, and a great uncle of mine was wounded on Guadalcanal and later died on the second push of Iwo Jima. Gudalcanal was an essential defensive victory which helped in reversing the Japanese "invincibility" by defeating them in the Battle of the Coral Sea. McArthur also avoided Churchills plan of full frontal assault of each fortified island by conducting leapfrogging instead, gaining control of lightly held islands to establish air bases and supply routes, which allowed him to get all the way to Tokyo with less than 90,000 casualties. The point of me droning on about this is that Churchill was most defenitly not a true ally of the United States, and the hero worship of him I see in modern media disgusts me. If he had his way the US would have bled out people for many more years than happened, and he was a scoundrel for it and more.
After WW2, the British plans for Pacific balance of power were shattered because of this, which is why they supported Mao Tse-tung inssurection as a counter against the American friendly Chiang Kai-Shek’ nationalists and their allies in the inner areas that were against the British colonialism. In order to reinforce this move, they used the Harriman (from which the Bush dynasty emerged) faction, including General Marshall and eventually Henry Kissinger, internally in the US against those resisting it. One of the telling moves was that after Mao's march in 49, the British were extremely quick to recognize his government and supply him with strategic goods through Hong Kong. As a matter of fact my old Marine Corps unit to this day still has symbols on the unit logo from it's China Marines days. To further restore the balance, they entangled the US in Korea, and it was McArthurs brilliance that created victory with inferior numbers and supplies, stunning the British, as they expected a different outcome. Since that play had backfired, the triple-agents in waiting were activated (though some had been used already during Korea), including Kim Philby, Guy Burges, Donald Mcclean, Anthony Blunt, Lester Pearson, and Victor Rothschild. They were triples because at first glance they were British agents, at the second layer they were recruited by the KGB (the Cambridge 6, yes, that's right, 6, not 5) but behind it all, they were ultimately loyal to the British monarchy. Plausible deniability you see. Eventually, the Harriman faction pushed Truman to finally get rid of McArthur for being such a pain in the imperialsts ass.
Now we get to Vietnam. After Diems assasination, the best option for the US would have been to stay out of that war, but a Saigon military advisor by the name of Sir Robert Thompson was at the time billed as the number one expert in counterinsurgency (shades of Patreaus anyone?), and later Robert Macnamaras book, the Pentagon Papers, et al, showed that it was his influence that was used to get LB Johnson to "take the plunge" in Vietnam once JFK was no longer around to veto it. It was Thompson who pushed for COIN operations in the south via US divisions in the Mekong delta doing nation building, despite the fact that the south Vietnamese defense minister had a superior plan in cutting off the Ho Chi Minh in the north near Laos with just a few US divisions by building a wall, and if the NVA tried to amass and attack, an amphibious assault from the rear would destroy them, and the nation building in the south would be left up to the Vietnamese themselves.
[1]https://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/5a2b52ff-831d-446b-b41f-...
In the end, 18 NVA divisions took over the south anyway. So, the postulation is that Sir Thompson, friend of Kissinger, did this on deliberatly, once again, to maintain the "balance of power".
Now, last but not least, we get to my war, the Global War on Terrorism. I have spent years since I got out trying to understand what happened there, so I will give you my terse summary. GWOT, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and including Africa in Libya, Somalia and Sudan, is all about the coming resource wars and prepositioning the, you guessed it, "balance of power". It wasn't about Saddam, (well, maybe a bit for ol Bushy Jr to go along with his masters Rumsfeld and Cheney), nor about Al Queda (which we had down to <100 in Afghanistan years and years ago. It wasn't even about the oil for the west to have. It was about the resources in aggregate, including the oil, to control. It's a distinction that needs to be made to the leftists who just repeat the war for oil slogan. Who did we learn this from? You guessed it, the British.
It was the British who first invaded Baghdad in 1917 for the same reasons, to prevent a new arab-europe rail-line that would threaten their inherently naval trading supremecy. It was the British MI6 and London's WallStreet cronies who taught and formed the OSS/CIA. It was the British who helped the CIA conduct it's first coup in Iran in 53, and tought the vicious SAVAK/SAVAMA their tricks of the trade. The blowblack of that one is still something felt to this very day. It was the British who established the Baathist party in the first place and propped Saddam up!
It's hard to find the sources, but I highly suspect the common understanding of the UKUS relationship in the middle-east is much different than most realize, and that the US was pushed into war by Tony Blair, as the Chilcot report helps verify, for very similar reasons as all the above wars I mention. This includes the Iraq-Iran war in which the UK and US supplied weapons to Saddam, and the first gulf war.
I could go on and on, but this matter still needs more research on my part. Suffice it to say, that after reading enough Carroll Quigley, and of Cecil Rhodes, and the resulting myriad of round-table think tanks and their influence on US policy, I have come to the conclusion that the British monarchy and oligarchy has never forgiven the US for the original revolution, which Christopher Hitchens called "the only revolution with a fighting chance of survival and success", that they have been involved in entangling the US in war after war, and that it continues to seek, as Cecil Rhodes put it, "the ultimate recovery of the United States of America as an integral part of the British Empire".
Despite the pretend friendship on a superficial level, the disdain for Americans by the British elite was palpable to me on a recent visit, and I think the UKUS 47 agreement is the primary legislative method that will be used to usher in the totalitarian surveillance state in the US, and I highly suspect that the UK has been playing the US as a fall guy in the upcoming move to global governance. I half expect a new Neuremberg to pop up sooner or later.
That sir, is why I say, not only have we been near war multiple times in the past, but I would venture to say the British Empire, carefully disguised as the commonwealth, has never ceased being at economic and political war with the United States of America since its inception.