Comment by Analemma_ | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Analemma_ | Hacker News Reader

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In order from best to worst, the possible outcomes were:

1. Fix the many problems with TPP, then pass it

2. Scrap TPP entirely

3. Pass TPP as it was

You say "Instead of pushing to deal with those criticisms, the entire deal gets scrapped.", but this is the real FUD. There was a huge outcry to fix TPP's problems-- that got completely ignored by the USTR, which didn't even try to pretend it had the people's interests in mind. If there were any chance that public criticism of TPP actually could have improved it, I would've preferred that solution, but it was made plain from the beginning that that wasn't going to happen and that we were not welcome at the discussion table.

> Sadly, it'll take much longer to fix than it did to screw up in the first place.

Agreed. The first step, and the hardest, will be for the people pushing for trade deals to start giving a shit about anyone other than corporations and billionaires. Reconciliation and public approval of trade deals can come after that

Scrapping it can be step one of fixing it, or at least a future iteration that probably won't be called the same thing. Demonstrating that the people who weren't invited to the table do in fact have the power to scrap the treaty means next time they'll be at the table, or there won't be a next time.

Alternatively, these countries will sign trade deals with China instead with fewer worker protections and be required to accept China's territory claims as a consequence. China will grow its economic hegemony over other countries, while the US will be ignored outside of military actions.

http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/china-backed-rcep-t...

China is an economic house of cards. The best course of action is just to wait it out.

I have to admit I can not fathom the game theory models that some of you seem to be approaching this problem with. Embrace your cynicism, but play it out all the way. People are greedy. Other people in the world want the money that the United States has. This gives the US leverage and power. The United States does not have all the power, but neither does China; that's just the same error firing in a different direction. There is no scenario where the world just shrugs its shoulders and says "Gee golly, I guess I can't even try to have that American money because the US didn't sign this one treaty and that was the only way that could ever happen".

I'm also not saying everything will necessarily be perfectly peachy, because that's also just the same error firing in a different direction as thinking that it's all catastrophe. It's mostly about fiddling around the margins, not massive binary movements. What will really happen is that some things will be better for the US, some things will be worse, and which one you think dominates will depend upon your values.

China is pushing trade deals through quickly. The US just wasted 8 years of those eleven countries' time and is strongly signalling protectionism.

The US and the basket of Western interests it represents is in a tug of war with China over how well their businesses can compete within SE Asia/Japan. This is why you'll see the phrase "regulatory harmonization" thrown around a lot; China does business by one playbook, the West does it by another, and whosever playbook all the countries in the middle choose to read from will have lower entry barriers to their markets.

I think your ordering is right. I wish there was more information to completely pervasively argue it...

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