First, thanks for your candor in this.
If you're open to edits, the $200k revenue/employee rule of thumb really doesn't make a lot of sense when you're comparing your three alternate business models (Hosted Rethink, DBaaS Rethink and "Hey, maybe PaaS on top of Rethink?").
Like you, I thought it would be way too hard to run a service (my own company was encouraged to do so, and we shied away for it for the same reason you stated). However, having seen it now from the inside for GCE for nearly 4 years, I can say it's much easier to "service-ize" yourself than it is to have built a product people want. And moreover, the shell scripts and operations stuff really scales (effectively, the hosted DB offering is the binary plus a bit of bash, while the other offerings require yet more "not done before" software).
Even more surprisingly, this statement:
> Managed hosting is essentially running the database for people on AWS so they don't have to. The alternative to using these services is setting up the database on AWS yourself. That's a pain, but it isn't actually that hard. So there is a very hard cap on how much managed database hosting services can charge.
turns out to just not be true in practice. People pay us (Cloud SQL) and AWS (RDS) a surprising amount of money to run MySQL in a VM for them. It turns out that people really like outsourcing even a small amount of pain, but that we're (as engineers) easily blindsided to "Um, why would I pay you XX% over the raw VM price? You're just running some shell scripts for me". Little things like automatically updating to the latest version, configuration replication, etc. are things that nobody will bat at an eye at paying you for (I believe in the DB space in particular, it's because the overall cost of your DB is dwarfed by "All the rest", so it's a good trade of people time versus $$s).
I hope this doesn't come across as Monday-morning quarterbacking, but if I did mine over again I'd take the "Build a great piece of software, and even if it's open, service-ize it for folks". It's true that you're competing with the Cloud providers, and that it seems like you wouldn't really be able to get people to pay you for it (and it's not your core competency), but I think it's the best option for this flavor of infrastructure software moving forward.