Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos meet "Ginger" (2003) | Hacker News Reader

Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos meet "Ginger" (2003)

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137 pointsomilu48 comments

>"I think the emphasis of this conversation is wrong," said Bezos. "You have a product so revolutionary, you'll have no problem selling it. The question is, are people going to be allowed to use it?"

Bezos and Jobs were right. Bicycles have been around since the 19th century and yet city planners are still struggling against mainstream political opinion to be able to set aside dedicated space for their use. If most cities currently only barely tolerate bicycles, the Segway was certainly dead on arrival.

I think Jobs' idea for starting small at universities was a bit better of an idea than Bezos' idea of starting in a small country. Davis California for example is the most bike friendly city in America (20% mode share). That would have been the perfect place to start.

Bicycles have been around since the 19th century and yet city planners are still struggling against mainstream political opinion to be able to set aside dedicated space for their use.

To be fair, in the U.S., bicycle use has increased dramatically in the last decade or two, before the recent trend of adding bike lanes. Increased traffic congestion, including from cutbacks in public transit and city planning that emphasizes safety over car speed, have made cars less practical and increased biking a lot.

A (feeble) plug for my hometown, Manchester NH (where Dean Kamen is currently located): I just visited the Millyards and they have apartments there that would cost $3500/month in Boston (more in SF) for $1400/month, Dean just pledged $300 million to biotech startups right there. Not much nightlife but not many distractions either, and they've put these beautiful restaurants in the old mills. It's about the same distance to Boston as Palo Alto is to SF. So if you want to drop off the grid for a while to focus on developing a product it's a great place to get started. Yeah.

It seems not Biotech in general, but growing human organs in particular:

http://www.unionleader.com/business/kamen-to-lead-294m-effor...

It'd be very difficult to live in a place that is 85% white though, which unfortunately is diverse for New Hampshire.

I think Jobs was right, you'd have a tough time convincing great talent to locate themselves there. Cost of living certainly is a factor, but it's only one of many.

Yeah, one could live in the middle of Texas for $400/month in a place with low crime...and nothing to do, no infrastructure, and no jobs. Jobs won't come there any time soon, because people don't want to be there, hence the low CoL.

I've never understood this argument.

Probably the best thing about being a cutting-edge dev is the ability to work from anywhere. Heck, I've only worked onsite for a handful of my clients. Some of them (including my current client) I've never even met.

Why this need to co-locate everyone - in the most expensive city we can find? Why the need to work so hard - just to transfer your hard-earned wealth to a landlord?

You say Texas has no infrastructure - well, we do have running water, paved roads, electricity, cheap homes, and internet - everything the modern IT professional needs to work and live. And we also have airports, for getting the f__k out of Texas, which is easy and fun with all the rent money you'll save :)

It's because people of diverse backgrounds need diversity in their community/social life as well. In Texas you have two kinds of diversity: white and Hispanic.

> In Texas you have two kinds of diversity: white and Hispanic

uffi... where to start?

Maybe you exhibit prejudice and ignorance of your own?

Did you know that, for example, Dallas has one of the largest gay communities in the USA?

I'm sure Texas could use more diversity, and I won't try to convince you otherwise since your mind appears quite made up, but your comment adds negative value to the conversation.

OK, I probably spoke too loosely. It's not that Texas doesn't have diversity; for example I've heard Austin has a cool 'artsy' scene. Rather, it's that to outsiders, Texas gives the perception of being very homogeneous. We don't get to see the diverse side of Texas because in media, literature, and other popular culture, Texas is often represented in a certain way. Whose fault is that? Definitely not of the minorities and the rational-minded people of Texas; but it is what it is and it does keep people away.

I spend a fair amount of time outside the USA. Your comments are representative of how most Europeans see the entire USA.

So I guess everything is just a matter of perspective once you start overgeneralizing.

Also, what's the problem with Hispanics? Wrong kind of heterogeneity? Honest question.

I think if you look at the demographics of Los Angeles and Dallas you'll find them shockingly similar:

% Hispanic: LA 47% DA 42%

% Non-Hispanic White: LA 29% DA 29%

% foreign-born: LA 39% DA 25%

% Black: LA 10% DA 25%

% Poverty: LA 19% DA 18%

Oh you certainly can have a good career working remote, I've largely worked remote my entire career, but I choose to live in one of the top 3 most expensive cities in the US. The networking and proximity to other very talented people is important to me, both for personal and professional growth. My social circles are filled with supremely talented people from a diversity of backgrounds, which keeps me challenged and inspired.

If that's not for you that's totally fine, but I don't think I would have been able to level up my career and life anywhere else as rapidly.

So if you want to drop off the grid for a while

Is this just trash talking a hometown you were glad to leave for the glamor of a big city, or do people actually think like this?

I've lived in big cites, and rural Maine, so I understand the fear of missing out that comes with it. But it's possible to have a social life anywhere, and we work online. Is there some startup culture thing that I'm not exposed to where zero commute and physically rubbing elbows is paradoxically more important than in fields less conductive to remote work?

I think that's just me projecting my worries about what people think about where I'm from. There is evidence that people do think that way. See the responder who said he would not want to live there because there are too many white people.

Segway and Google Glass went through similar product image trajectories: immense pre-launch hype, then turned into a dorky status symbol perceived as being for tech-obsessed rich buffoons only, and riddled by regulatory problems concerning its public use.

Yet Snap seems to be doing quite well with its Spectacles resurrection of the Google Glass concept. Maybe Segway will also come back once someone cracks the design and youth-friendly branding?

it already happened for Segway, here is a documentary of the design process from the future/past: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkyLnWm1iCs

and here are the products: https://www.walmart.com/tp/hoverboard

> a dorky status symbol perceived as being for tech-obsessed rich buffoons

I think this is pretty key. Whenever I hear about Segway, my first thought is Gob Bluth from Arrested Development riding around on one with his name plastered across the control console.

> "Its shape is not innovative, it's not elegant, it doesn't feel anthropomorphic," said Jobs, ticking off three of his design mantras.

I was wondering what exactly did Jobs mean when he said that the design was not "anthropomorphic". I mean, the shape of an iPhone does look very different from that of a human figure.

EDIT: perhaps he meant that it wasn't ergonomic?

The iPhone is sort of like a face, maybe?

The Segway looks likes farm equipment

I think he used the word more abstractly, like in terms of having a direct human interface to it, like using your finger on the iPhone's touchscreen almost like turning the page of a book, etc. I don't know how that would translate to a Segway, though - maybe something that made motion feel more immediate than just leaning.

> I don't know how that would translate to a Segway, though - maybe something that made motion feel more immediate than just leaning.

South Park had a design idea for revolutionary transportation that had a more "direct human interface"[1].

1. The IT Bike. NSFW: http://southpark.wikia.com/wiki/IT

Nah, that is just Jobs being Jobs. Trying to market himself as a design guy when in reality he is all marketing.

Its more interesting how he kept notes in his palm (nice way to have them without appearing to have them) and that he made the rest sit up when talking about staged roll-outs of models to maximize revenue.

Bezos on the other hand hit at the heart of the matter, that the thing didn't fit neatly inside any existing regulations.

>Nah, that is just Jobs being Jobs. Trying to market himself as a design guy when in reality he is all marketing.

Actually Jobs was all design and vision (and business deals) -- and very little marketing. Apple had in-house and outside ad and marketing teams.

I'm curious: When we talk about product-market fit, do you classify that as marketing?

If you mean recognizing if a product will be good for a particular market, then obviously not.

Well, you would be wrong. I don't know how to make this clear to people without knowledge of how things were defined in the business world before the prevalence of the web, but you seem to be part of the crowd I've decided to correct on HN. It's not that I'm against the language evolving, but one should know where these terms came from. Please note the use of the word "market," as that should be indicative.

Think a little bit more broad than actually 'human shaped'. Picture something that you could some how project human qualities on to. A car isn't human shaped, but the front can sometimes be thought of as having the characteristics of a human face. To steve jobs, this was anthropomorphic: http://cdn.ientry.com/sites/webpronews/article_pics/mac128he... I think to probably project a little bit myself, I'd say it might have a bit to do with his experiences with psychedelics where you can get into this headspace where everything takes on life around you.

Using a Segway on a college campus would be great.. Wish they had convinced campuses to buy them for students.

The unveiling was so lame.. People wearing khakis and super lame helmets and going over little bumps and looking so non-cool.. I watched way back when and was like... Uh... No.. First should not have helmets on.. Should have been very attractive people and should have showed how quickly they could get from point A to point B in style and comfort and convenience..

Some companies in the Bay had them for getting around campus and eventually got rid of them because of too many incidents, so the helmet and small bumps thing was probably for the best. I rode one and it seriously goes faster than I'd be comfortable ditching it. It's also very possible to fling yourself off, tip over, etc. I'm not generally comfortable with a transportation device until I find the limits (so I know where they are), but it was scarier than it should have been. You have to basically trust it not to slam your head into the pavement, but I guess I've just been around dodgy electronics long enough to not be so naive.

Then again, now we have electric longboards, which are like an order of magnitude more dangerous. At least with the longboard, you still have 4 wheels if all the electronics give out. Then again, some of the DIY stuff out there...I would not trust my life to a rPi descending a hill in SF with traffic. The foot brake always works.

Better than a bicycle in what way, though?

I would say that ultimately the Segway was a failure, but that perception is partially affected by the hyperbolic hype that preceded it. I wonder what its own inventors think.

How popular did they expect it to get? How did they expect people to use it? How did they not foresee the backlash to its incredible dorkiness? Would a smaller, handle-less form factor (like the Chinese clones now known as "hoverboards") have been possible with the battery technology of the time?

Hm. Calling it a failure is pretty strong. It is used. What hindered it was a) the expensive price and b) at least in many country it was/is illegal to use. Is it like a bike? Or like a motor vehicle and needs insurance and license tag? A drivers license? Can you ride it on pavement or do you have to use the street? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/11926027/Hoverboa.... > like the Chinese clones A bit sad: Segway inc was bought up by one of these Chinese clone companies (Ninebot) for its patents.

It feels like failures on the scale of Segway are now pretty run of the mill. They "only" raised a 166MUSD [1]. Doesn't really compare to modern failures like Theranos, 686MUSD.

[1] https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/segway#/entity

[2] https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/theranos#/entity

Riding a Segway telegraphs either "I am fit enough to balance standing on a moving platform, yet rich enough to drop several grand on a vehicle whose only benefit over a bicycle is not having to move my legs," or "I have respiratory issues." At least today's so-called "hoverboards" and electric skateboards are an order of magnitude more affordable (and transportable).

I wonder if an inexpensive automated rental model (à la HubWay or other bicycle sharing systems) could have been successful in negating the "rich douche" image by eliminating the price barrier. As it was, the multi-grand price tag and overall impracticality screamed "entitled".

Mall cops and airport security also have them now, so that ship has more or less sailed. They still do Segway tours across the country in tourist trap areas. They're a novelty with some limited niche commercial uses.

There's also a rather (£14k) pricey wheel chair

http://www.themobilityaidscentre.co.uk/genny-segway-powercha...

Segway will always be tainted for me by the hyperbole that surrounded its launch.

"Steve Jobs, Apple's co-founder, predicted that in future cities would be designed around the device"

This was said before any of us knew what 'Ginger' was due to the secrecy surrounding it and its marketing hype.

In this context, it is a failure. I've barely ever even seen one of the things in the wild, and certainly haven't seen any cities redesigned for the Segway.

I think the only way it really could have been revolutionary is if it were faster, smaller, lighter, and safer (both for riders and for people around them) at once. Think of something that doesn't measurably increase a human's form factor, slows to human speeds when around walkers but can go much faster otherwise, packs down to be easily carried, etc. Then you'd have the use case where an individual person could take walkways for car-commute distances. But since that wasn't possible, it ended up being a worst-of-many worlds kind of device - too unsafe (for riders) for roads, too unsafe (for pedestrians) for sidewalks, too slow (in practice) for its cost, too expensive for its benefits, too heavy, etc, etc.

This makes me miss Steve Jobs, a lot. So much of what he says seemed dead on about the struggles Segway faced. For all his faults, I think he had a great sense about what consumers wanted and loved about a product, as well as what would frustrate them or turn them off, and I think it's been one of Apple's struggles since he passed.

"suspected, as did Dean, that Doerr was setting them up for an ambush on his home turf"

Why the ambush? Was John Doerr previously trying to deliver the same message (that the product wasn't ready), but needed Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs' firepower to finally convince Dean Kamen? The article only hints at it, but this sounds like there's a bit more drama in the Doerr/Kamen relationship.

It's hard to believe that if it was really going to take over the world, it would have mattered at all how it was launched, what the initial design of it looked like, who got a meeting the "king of Singapore", etc. Those sound like elements of a fad, not a lasting and significant part of technology.

A really good book about this is "Code Name Ginger" which is not the blind glorification that such books can be.

https://www.amazon.com/Code-Name-Ginger-Behind-Segway/dp/157...

"Screw the lead times. You don't have a great product yet!" - Steve Jobs

Advice every struggling startup needs to hear. Great products are rare and the best way to succeed is not to settle on product quality.

But how do you know you have a great product before you ship? Until you have paying customers, you don't have a real feedback loop.

You can't be sure that you are going to sell a good product, but you definitively know when you are going to ship a bad product. And a lot of "startups" are just selling bad products.

But how do you know you have a great product before you ship? Until you have paying customers, you don't have a real feedback loop.

If you need customer feedback in order for you to know what to build, what business do you have building anything? How could you ever hope to innovate?

Startups can "ship" many times before anyone notices. Big companies (like Apple) can do private user testing.

You will know when your product is great because users will have an unmistakable reaction. It's the difference between "oh, that sounds interesting" and "shut up and take my money!"

I think seeing pictures of Woz on his Segway put me off the idea. He seemed to balloon since getting one.

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