I prefer the first number to be a simple release number, then the second to be the amount of risk from the previous release. That way for projects with a dozen or two releases one can normalize the risk values between projects to get everyone more or less on the same page without them having to change their behavior and it can introduce the ability for you to manually correct the risk for different libraries (eg: Library X is super critical for me, so *2 the risk).
Automated tools for calculating risk are possible with this scheme and additional risk can be added for the update (eg: tool sees you are using method X or API call Y that was changed, so the risk is increased).
With release.risk you can say "Automatically update when total risk is <X" and actually have it be tolerable to you. Even when manually updating, you can get an idea of how much trouble its going to be, and possibly have a tool generate a list of areas you should put extra attention towards (eg: library X has a risky update, check to see if it breaks your corner cases).