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Comment by paulhodge | Hacker News Reader

Is this being posted for humor value?

This was written in 2014, the researchers saw a small trend and extrapolated that the trend would continue, causing 80% user loss from 2014 to 2017.

Since 2014, FB's active user count has increased from 1 billion to 1.7 billion and the stock price from ~60 to 120.

This article is a great example of a very terrible and very wrong prediction.

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There are around 3B internet connected people in the world, does FB really have half of them? I know more than a handful of people that eschew Facebook entirely, it's hard to beleive that half of the world is on FB. I also have 3 or 4 FB accounts myself, (that I created to test an app) am I counted as 3 people?

1.79 billion monthly active users.

I guess you might be counted as 4 people if you use all your test accounts regularly, but the average number of Facebook accounts per person must be extremely close to 1.

Facebook estimates that between 5.5% and 11.2% of accounts are fake [1]. So that's still around 1.59 billion real users.

[1] http://thenextweb.com/facebook/2014/02/03/facebook-estimates...

I wonder how many active Facebook users aren't actually actively using Facebook. Per that link, Facebook defines an active user as anyone who logs into a Facebook account, but that includes using a Facebook account to log into a third-party service. An enormous number of apps and services now use Facebook OAuth rather than their own user registration system and, anecdotally, I know a surprising number of people who have zero-friend zero-post Facebook profiles solely because of that. As far as I can see Facebook doesn't publish information on how many of their active users are actively using Facebook itself.

But Facebook has sort of outgrown Facebook itself.

The value to outsiders is now about the untangleable web they've built: so whether you're using a dating app, OAuth, Messenger, Instagram or Whatsapp (last one is a bit of a tricky one right now) you're still a user of Facebook. Maybe you're no longer addicted to the feed - cuz fake news - but Facebook is still deriving some value from you as you're still a part of their platform.

Facebook is an ad platform on top of a social media network. It's correct to measure those OAuth users as active, because they're still being followed around the web (any site that uses the FB platform, which practically is most), they're still part of the monetization platform, they can be targeted in ads, etc. That's what's really relevant to their business, not how many people post content on their FB wall or send messages.

This is no longer true as of late 2015. The new definition is "We define a monthly active user as a registered Facebook user who logged in and visited Facebook through our website or a mobile device, or used our Messenger app (and is also a registered Facebook user), in the last 30 days as of the date of measurement."

So if they don't use Facebook's website or app, or Messenger as a Facebook user, they don't count.

http://www.adweek.com/socialtimes/monthly-active-users-defin...

Facebook has no idea how many fake accounts exist and neither do I. But it is definitely higher than 11.2%. That estimate was self-serving for business purposes not a serious analysis.

Given sites like these http://www.followersandlikes4u.com/buy-real-facebook-followe... i would put fake accounts at 30%

You're saying that buying fake followers accounts for a 360 million user discrepancy (from 10%-30%)? Only a small subset of app developers, page maintainers, etc, buy fake followers, and most people are not app developers. And FB deletes fake accounts all the time. 6-12% is much more realistic than 30%. Most apps/networks have between 2-10% fake/dupe/invalid accounts, and you become a bigger target the larger you get.

What about Twitter? Do you think they have between 6 and 12% as well?

I would assume you are counted as 3 or 4 people. I think this is restricted by the Facebook ToS and is one of the reasons they try to collect real names, which admittedly doesn't really fix the issue.

Facebook also allows businesses and organizations to have accounts, I'm pretty sure.

The last Pew Research poll shows 79% of "online" US adults use Facebook. That's equivalent to 68% of all US adults, which at least makes it seem plausible that half of all people with access to the internet use Facebook.

http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/11/11/social-media-update-20...

Extrapolating from the US number to people with different languages, cultures, and legal environments all over the world seems like a leap. For instance, Facebook is blocked in China.

But heavily used in other countries. Travelling through southeast Asia and India makes me believe that usage there could be even higher than in US or Europe, nearly everyone who has internet on their phone will use Facebook.

I guess they have nowhere as much, but it's probably good for marketing purposes. In my social environment probably 25-30% of the people are on facebook. And I guess that's still way above the average - because of age (the percentage of > 50 year olds will be much less) and region (in less developed countries less people will have the chance to use facebook).

In total I would expect less than 10% of the world population to use Facebook, but even that would be massive.

The rapid icarus-like ascent and fall of MySpace should be enough to show people that social media doesn't behave like traditional businesses. Extrapolating out trend lines over the course of three years in a medium that is not quite twenty years old seems to be asking for trouble, in my opinion.

It was a demo page on my HN clone ( with tags) and i thought it was an interesting throwback--> http://tagly.azurewebsites.net/Home/Demo

>This was written in 2014, the researchers saw a small trend and extrapolated that the trend would continue, causing 80% user loss from 2014 to 2017.

Do you not see the humor value in that?

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