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Comment by dlp211 | Hacker News Reader

To pile on to this. Even is SS makes no changes whatsoever, they can still pay out ~75% of the benefits starting in the late 2020's or early 2030's and all the way through the 2080's or 2090's based on the SS Trustee report. SS is going to be around unless we choose to elect officials that dismantle it. The fear mongering and apathy needs to stop.

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I'm sorry, but this statement is not true. These numbers require the use of the Social Security trust fund. The Social Security trust fund is a "special issue treasury bond" in which money is deposited and then spent by the US government.

So, when the trustees say that Social Security can pay 75% of the benefits, what they mean is that there are enough IOUs in the trust fund to pay 75% of the benefits. But when we start redeeming the IOUs, we will quickly discover that the money isn't in existence. We are going to have to raise taxes or cut spending or otherwise get the money from somewhere else. The trust fund is just a very very clever way of obfuscating the fact that the government has no money saved at all for Social Security.

All you are saying is that the US needs to continue to service its debt without defaulting. Since there is no sign that we will default now or later, this is simply more fear mongering.

Actually, the 75% number is when there is no trust fund whatsoever and all outgoing payments are funded directly by incoming payments.

> But when we start redeeming the IOUs

You are aware, I'm sure, that said IOUs have been redeemed every year of SS's existence.

Until they aren't. Bear Stearns paid its bills every year until it suddently didn't.

It's worth noting that if there are benefit cuts of 25% that it's unlikely that each individual will see a 25% cut. It's more likely (in my opinion at least) that we'll see some sort of means testing where seniors with other income (from 401Ks, private pensions, other savings) see their benefits cut much more than 25% while those with low incomes retain their full benefits.

So if you are saving a lot it could, ironically, be a self fulfilling prophecy that you get no social security.

So what you're saying is I can cash in my 401k for a boat.

I dunno. Fishing boat or speed boat?

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