Strange, I'm middle class and I live in a city. There are other cities than NYC, SF, LA and Boston.
Personally, I think that a metro/subway system is a good marker of whether or not a place is dense enough to be considered a city. By that metric, the US only has a handful of cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland (?!), DC, Los Angeles, Miami, NYC, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and San Juan Puerto Rico (?!).
If you look at a pure density metric of 10k people per square mile at the center of a metro area you end up with a subset: Boston, Chicago, DC, Los Angeles, Miami, NYC, Philadelphia, San Francisco. The City of LA itself has a density of only 8k per square mile but 27 of the surrounding municipalities have a density above the threshold so I included it in the list. Providence, RI happens to also be particularly dense although just below my arbitrary cut-off. There are a few incorporated places throughout the US which are small enough to meet the density threshold but are part of a larger metropolitan area which do not.
Arguments could be made for Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, or San Juan based on the first criterion. Places like Houston, Austin, Seattle, Dallas, Lousiville, Salt Lake City, etc. might be considered by some to be cities. Based on my time there, I would say that Seattle is on the cusp of becoming a city and that this may apply to a lot of other places throughout the US. If the US was a lot less car-centric it might have a lot more cities (based on both criteria).
That said, other industries are geographically concentrated as well. If you have your heart set on working in the oil business, you probably shouldn't set your sights on living in Boston.
It's not just that different industries have their hubs - media, design, finance in NYC, entertainment in LA, tech in SF. A whole ecosystem of supporting firms grows around these companies. So the most influential and prestigious law, accounting, and consulting firms tend to cluster in these cities too.
There also are a lot of people who don't necessarily want to spend their entire lives in, say, NYC but think it will be a good career move to get a prestigious name on their resume before going somewhere else.
At this point I think there's kind of a chicken and egg situation where a lot of ambitious, talented people flock to major cities because firms are there, and firms stay planted in these cities because so many talented, ambitious people are flocking there.
Fair enough, but mid sized cities have jobs for plumbers, electricians, government employees, secretaries, marketing people, accountants, college professors, construction, biologists, vetrenarians, etc.
The title, "The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore" is absurd.
Thus they either have to deal with periodic un- or under-employment, or manage the risk by building a cash cushion, either of which means a less affluent lifestyle.
There are plenty of suburbs within a 10-20 minute driving distance from the city. Also, businesses operate in those surrounding suburbs.
I like mid sized cities. Not too large, not too small, but just right.
I pay around $1600 monthly for a $227,000 house in Austin, so the housing cost would be $19,200 / $41,000 or _46%_ which is absolutely not 'affordable.'
If someone making the median income in a city can afford a median house with 21% of their gross income, yes, I deem that "affordable."
To go back to my example, the family making $41k net annually is paying $10,800 (ish) annually in mortgage costs. They pay an additional $4,781 in property tax annually. That leaves $25,419 annually or $2,100 monthly for other costs and savings.
My example makes plenty of assumptions that won't necessarily hold (after all, I'm assuming averages here). Notably, I'm assuming a 20% down payment and excellent credit. And no, that's not a lavish lifestyle. But it's well within the realm of "affordable" for an average person.
I'll also note that $228,000 is the median price, but a search on Zillow shows >1500 listings for less than $150,000. I saw one listing for 3bd/2ba at $135k within the loop. near decent schools and within 20 minutes driving distance of downtown, the USAA and Valero corporate campuses and the UTHSCA medical center, all major employers.
I don't really see what your example has to do with my point. Yes, Austin is more expensive than SATX. Yes, someone making $51k should not pay $1600 a month in housing cost. But you're making my point for me—housing costs in medium-large cities are not necessarily out of whack average incomes in all such cities, just some markets (like Austin).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-07-17/housings-...
I was using it as a starting point.
Is it true of LA? That also sounds wrong to me.
I just moved out of a place in Studio City, paying $1200 for a small one-bedroom apartment. It's listed now for $1600, and I'd bet on it filling within 10 days.
So that's a 1/3 increase in rent I was able to avoid by staying in one place for a long while, but if I'd been moving around it would have cost much more over the years.
In the far (semi-rural) reaches of Sacramento now, and happier for it!
Is that true of LA? It's only the case if there's no reasonable neighborhood within the boundaries of LA you could move to after an untenable rent increase in your current neighborhood.
For instance: it's obviously not the case that middle class families are priced out of the Chicago market. Chicago is full of neighborhoods full of hours and townhomes and three-flats that span pretty much the whole price spectrum. On the other hand: some neighborhoods that were pretty reasonable 10 years ago (Roscoe Village, or Bucktown) are now so expensive that their demography is changing. That doesn't mean Chicago is pricing out middle class families; it means Bucktown is.
There are certainly areas of LA at least as big as the total area of SF where middle class families can not afford to live. There are also areas at least as big as the total area of SF where lower-middle class families are the vast majority of residents.
The cities are just too different to make a meaningful comparison in my opinion.
What's Bayview like in San Francisco these days?
The better question is do middle class families have to live as far away from their jobs in LA as they do in SF, and the answer to that question is increasingly "yes."
Median household income for city of LA is ~$60k. Without detailing the numbers, maybe if you're really liberal with mortgage qualification you get a $450k home at that income (house or condo). In a broad Redfin search of the Valley/LA Basin and a bit beyond to the east/south (this includes many cities outside of LA), you have:
Total homes for sale: 4,720 <$450k: 873 (18%) In Safe Neighborhoods: 294 (6%) (I used my own definition of safe, but it's very liberal and includes many places where walking around after dark alone would not be advised, but it's an urban area after all so that's understandable)
Btw, and this is where people say you're not entitled to something, but if you are just talking about single family homes (LA is very single family home-focused) in a safe hood for <450k the number of availabilities drops to 51 homes (that's 1% of inventory).
Lots of other nuances here, but just a broad brushstroke look at the market.
The situation is that a vast expanse of the (very large) city of LA, and key enclaves like West Hollywood and Santa Monica (not formally part of LA, but surrounded by it) has had large and steady price increases for the past ~60 months straight. Renters have been priced out of one neighborhood after another.
It has caused a huge upheaval as people who had not noticed the pace of change have had to move to distant neighborhoods, or out of the area entirely. You see a lot more homeless, and there is a political struggle about people living in mobile homes parked at the edges of parks, etc. This upheaval is a hot issue.
But (coming to the point) it is still, barely, possible for middle class people to find homes in LA city. But you have to pay a lot more (say, 400k), and/or accept some living conditions that are marginal. When middle class Anglo families are seriously considering moving to Boyle Heights condos...it's a new thing.
I don't have time just now, but looking at real estate listings for Cypress Park might be informative. This is a tough neighborhood with significant long standing gang activity. Not South LA (aka "south central"), but close. Example: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/3608-Arroyo-Seco-Ave-9... (sold for 360k last year).
450k for a 2+1, 744 sq. ft. -- https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/3618-Arroyo-Seco-Ave-9...
In a neighborhood with regular gang related homicides -- e.g., https://www.theeastsiderla.com/2016/08/one-dead-in-cypress-p...
Personally I'm into music. Composing, playing shows, going to the symphony, the opera, the ballet. Sure, I could leave Toronto, except now I'm in the middle of nowhere where there are no jobs and no culture. Now what?
I'm sure it's similar for others in the US.
There are huge, huge affordability problems with Vancouver and Toronto, but they're hardly your only choices.
I'm not sure about the music scene but there are a wide variety of both English and French language theatre companies. NAC, GCTC, La Nouvelle Scene, etc. I'm sure the situation is similar for Opera and Ballet.