Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)
venngage.com
venngage.com
My take on it is:
HN/Slashdot commenters can be valuable for pointing out what's technically wrong with the product. They also tend to put too much weight on product's shortcomings. However, they are blind to what's right about the product or discount the product's strengths for the non-geek consumer.
However, that doesn't mean that average consumers are ultimately right either. On the one hand, they don't have the technical understanding which often skews the prediction towards market failure. Their naivete just lets them try the product and vote with their wallets. On the other hand, that lack of knowledge leads to unrealistic hypothetical products... e.g. "if they can put a man on the moon, why can't my smartphone battery last 3 months and project a 4k video with 5000 lumens on my living room wall?" (relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1425/)
No one can accurately predict success. Not specialized forums, not specialized workers in the field, and not even VCs whose sole incentive is to make money by investing in great ideas.
Even YC says as much that they have no clear idea as to what will be a success, and their strongest signal is the strength of the founders, and that there should be co-founders. I'm not sure how their experiment went with inducting people into YC just based solely on who they were, without an idea, but that's just further evidence that even people obsessed with finding success basically have no clear idea or signal as to what makes a success.
Yes, there are absolutely economic/industry issues that are completely out of our control and hard to predict but I believe a major part is the strength of the team to focus, execute, get along and continue when sh*t happens, and adjust as their Vision hits reality.
I'm not sure what the division is between luck/timing vs team/product vs all the other things but it's hard to accept that it's "largely" out of my hands. Maybe you're right but I hope not.
If it weren't out of your control, then wouldn't someone have already come up with a more surefire way of creating a successful company than what we currently have? The smartest people are here in Silicon Valley, all trying to become billionaires and yet only a very small percentage actually succeed, and there's no way to accurately and consistently predict before it happens.
>> not sure how their experiment went with inducting people into YC just based solely on who they were, without an idea,
When I submit my project to Show HN it'll be to have the stupid obvious things, or gaping security FU, I've missed ripped to shreds. That's the point to my mind. Same if I were showing it to /r/programming. They're my sanity check before pushing for users.
Hopefully I've already got a good idea of the market before I do that. If I want positive outlook, perhaps equally unrealistic or wrong, I'd submit to whatever non-technical reddit suits the service.
Does anyone submit MVP to HN in the expectation of glowing praise or predictions of success?
e.g. I still don't like Quora, and rarely even visit, especially after the sign-in to view more change.
Add to that some idea that is not normal and involves actually changing the way society thinks and acts. Or some idea that runs headlong into a highly regulated industry and involves a gamble on winning (zenefits, Uber, lyft). Calling these ideas crazy is basically stating the obvious. The unnormal result is that they actually succeed. And good for them for doing it, and I'm not discounting the skill and ideation or how well these people "earned" the success. I'm just saying let's not discount that they were still lucky and that the ideas were crazy -- this is statistical fact.
I'd love to see an analysis of all the "Show HN" posts and which projects/companies are alive and thriving at +1 year, +3 years, and +5 years. It still wouldn't be a complete picture but better than cherry picking winners.
Counterexample by way of metaphor: I used to feel the same way about restaurant food, but then my cooking skills increased to the point where I can make most Italian or French food just as well as if not better than most restaurants I've been to.
Now, I rarely if ever go out for French or Italian any more.
Aside from pommes-frites and crepes, finding French food at the bottom of the price scale is pretty difficult.
And I wonder why that's true. I mean, in Los Angeles, I can find food from other great culinary traditions at both the high end and the low end of the price scale: Korean, Mexican, Chinese, Thai, Indian, Peruvian, Vietnamese, Middle Eastern -- even Japanese, which, considering general price levels in Japan, is surprising.
But French food? It's almost always some high priced, sit-down place with a valet out front. There don't seem to be a lotta reasonably/low priced French food joints out there.
(Even stranger is the price of "British" food, usually found in pubs: always seems overpriced. And British is not exactly known as a great food tradition.)
sometimes i'm better off buying takeout food from a restaurant so i can spend that time wrapping up some work task so i can just forget about it. i can bill a little more time that day. and i'll sleep better that night. it's worth it.
One can admire the article as a piece of analysis shaped SEO-bait, even as one despairs over the value it subtracts from the world by existing.
And, consequently, why would you then feel smug posting ad-homs about how you aren't surprised that it isn't?
The commenters were correct in being concerned about safety, and the suggestion to link Facebook was implemented.
I remember when I signed up for AirBnB my biggest concern was not being able to trust the person renting the place. Their account being linked to a Facebook profile (mostly) solved this problem for me.
Sure, if all you care about is money, those criticisms don't matter. But personally, I care about if I might have a negative effect on the world.
The launch post regarding AirBNB set a tone with it's title that set people up to be critical..."Sleep under my kitchen table.." Even for those that understood the tongue-in-cheek there, the title is self deprecating.
I suspect the thread would have had a more positive tone with a different title.
Do successful projects receive more positive comments?
I would imagine that most startup founders probably spend maybe 10-15% of their day worrying about HN/Product Hunt comments. I forget who said it (maybe pg?), but HN isn't meant to be used as support board, especially for YC companies. Of course there are exceptions to the rule, especially if there is malfeasance or fraud involved.
https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&query=comments%20obsessi...
... said me, while sipping expensive wine out of a crystal chalice that came from the 9th century while sitting on a throne made of the finest organic pasture raised bovine hide, while smoking a Stradavarius (the violin, not the cigar).
Not passing judgement, mind you, but at least it isn't a Goddamned echo chamber like most other websites. Well, at least, not nearly as bad.
That's not a bad description, at least of one segment of the spectrum.