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I agree about the timeframe. I think the issue is not when the technology will be ready, but when the money will be ready to embrace the disruption. So the tech will be ready in 5 years, but the products and paradigms wont make their way into the wild (outside of academia) until 6 or 7 years after that.

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Yes it's not a tech issue, the issue goes much deeper than that. It will mean a major change in architectures and languages, and that's going to require some killer applications to gain adoption. I imagine the tech will show up and languish -- while the rest of us try to figure out how to get our heads around it.

Even after adoption, there will be major friction from the corporate and governmental sectors -- lots of money has been invested in doing things the old way. Early adopter consumers in 12-15 years. Rest of the world? Perhaps a good bit longer.

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