I agree it's a massive problem, and I don't doubt there are business opportunities. I just question how massive are those opportunities.
It's like shale oil--there's tons of it, but it's only profitable to extract under the right circumstances.
I agree it's a massive problem, and I don't doubt there are business opportunities. I just question how massive are those opportunities.
It's like shale oil--there's tons of it, but it's only profitable to extract under the right circumstances.
Also, you have to correctly judge the cost of service. Demand for internet access is much more elastic than, say, demand for a cure for cancer. The lesson from the Iridium constellation is that even wealthy people aren't necessarily willing to pay as much as needed, or as often as needed, to recoup investments. Iridium succeeded but the original company went bankrupt shortly after starting service.
Iridium existing as it is today has pretty much nothing whatsoever to do with it's commercial viability. It exists largely due to the original investors giving away a free network to the current operators, and an "anchor tenant" customer that was willing to more or less fund the network's opex for a number of years.
Iridium's polar orbit LEO architecture makes it a rare and special thing. Globalstar was an utter network architecture failure (bent pipe satellite relay), Inmarsat is not usable at polar latitudes due to being geostationary based.
Did they have foresight? Absolutely. Did they successfully create a new market? Yes. Did they hold an effective monopoly? Yes. Was their product and service a technological success? Clearly, as it's still used today. Did they make money? No, not even close. Theirs was the largest U.S. bankruptcy at the time.
Yes, there may be tremendous opportunity. But there's also tremendous risk. Timing and strategy are everything, and nobody has a crystal ball for those details even when the big picture is a certainty.