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"the probability of non-trivial defects increases with code size."

Intuitively this feels correct, I wonder if anybody has studied it.

Why does he specifically say "non-trivial" defects? The probability of any defect surely increases with code size?

Perhaps to forestall the suggestion that the growth is in trivial bugs, such as a typo in the text printed in response to the -h option.

Maybe because these are the most relevant ones? Trivial defects are easily detected and fixed. Or else they're not trivial.