That's why I mentioned the pant sizes, because changing clothe sizing is a better indicator of things moving the right direction.
I haven't change my meal choices much at all, but getting the 30 minute work-out ring closed means I walk an average of 4 miles a day, every day (little over an hour). This also burns a bunch of calories, gets my aerobic exercise in, raises my heart rate, and gets me moving.
I keep a food log, and looking at the calories consumed before the Apple Watch and after they are very similar, the only real change has been the Apple Watch. Now that I get much more exercise in (it was simpler to ignore when I didn't have a watch with a watch face that shows me my rings), my nutritionist actually upped the amount of calories I need to eat a day.
Side note: Also, I have to keep my weight loss to a minimum due to losing weight too fast exacerbating other medical conditions. My doctor is happy with my progress, and that is what matters way more than some back of the envelope calculation you've done here.