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Comment by alex_hirner | Hacker News Reader

The decision makers in big auto are around 10y from their retirement. Reluctance makes sense for them. It's similar to the consulting project I had at uni with an O&G company: everyone knows they should pivot for the sake of the next generation. On the other hand, upper echelons just want to simplify their life.

Now it's the labor unions that are pushing german auto makers over the EV cliff. Ironically, they have the greatest incentives to innovate/follow.

It's bothering though, that redundancies will be massive no matter what exactly they do about EVs. Can anyone offer a growth perspective for that sector (=not some kind of UBI vision)? My initial thoughts were space. But this is not really were to retool design prowess and factories either.

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> Reluctance makes sense for them. It's similar to the consulting project I had at uni with an O&G company: everyone knows they should pivot for the sake of the next generation.

Honestly, I think the issue is that auto execs and the general public have very different views of the world.

From an executives perspective, EVs are an over-saturated, incredibly niche market that's nearly impossible to make money on. They already spend a ton of money investing in EVs and the general public doesn't care about their EV offerings and they barely sell.

The general public seem to hold Telsa up on this pedestal of innovation and point to them as an example of how automakers need to be if they don't want to be seen as dinosaurs. But I bet if you talked to Mark Fields, he'd say something along the lines of, "Nobody is going to buy an $80,000 Ford EV."

The general public is clearly not interested in actually buying EVs right now. Heck, they don't even like hybrids. Instead Americans are happily buying pickup trucks and crossovers, then complaining about about a company's lack of innovation.

Ford has the biggest lineup of EVs (with a sedan, van, and compact hatchback offering) and probably the best availability of EVs in the USA, yet they only moved 24,000 EVs this year. Telsa moved about 38,000 Models S & X in the same time period. Total USA EVs sales were a hair over 133,000. This is in a country where pickup trucks easily sell over a half-million units a year and a beige family sedan will move 200,000.

So I don't feel like the large automakers are reluctant to adopt EVs for any other reason besides the fact that the market needs decades of double-digit percent grow in order to support more than two key players.

From an executives perspective, EVs are an over-saturated, incredibly niche market that's nearly impossible to make money on

EVs have been a niche market and will stop being niche the moment they can be made at mass scale and consumer pricing. This shift is likely to happen with surprising quickness: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13039490.

I'm not sure the evidence suggests that price is the limiting factor for EV adoption.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

The best selling EV is also one of the more expensive options. As is the third best selling. And there are lots of BMWs selling as many units as Fiats and Kias.

The current market for EVs seems to be full of luxury or image-conscious buyers. Probably due to other factors that limit EV adoption, like needing to own a garage with a charger.

Have you looked at the Fird Fusion Energi? The trunk is just large enough to fit a pair of shoes. This car was clearly an afterthought. That they could shove the battery in any place and get away with it. No one wants to put down a serious amount of money for an afterthought.

I see the current generation of EVs he same as early desktop computing. Clearly it's getting there but it's still too expensive for the common person.

Yeah, this is such a huge issue it's worth mentioning twice.

When it comes to EVs, Ford's efforts are afterthoughts at best. They just take their existing hybrids, drop a underpowered-and-oversized battery in the trunk, and ship it to California. It's easy to have the biggest lineup (in terms of number of models) when you aren't actually putting any thought or effort into the EV portion of any of the vehicles. Ford doesn't really make EVs, they make compliance cars.

Chevy has plenty of issues too (the Spark EV, for instance). But in contrast to Ford, Chevy also sells some real EVs. It's immediately obvious that someone at Chevy spent more than 5 minutes thinking through the Volt / Bolt as an electric vehicle for people who really want an electric vehicle (and not just a compliance car) before it was shipped, which does not seem to be true of Ford's offerings so far.

> Chevy has plenty of issues too (the Spark EV, for instance).

Hey now, take that back!

I loved my Spark EV. When the lease ended I purchased a new Spark EV.

The Spark EV may have been slapped together as a compliance car or a prototype to learn from, but it is a great Bay Area car. The Spark form factor is really space efficient. It seats four and still fits into all the leftover parking spots that are too small for everyone else. It's not a perfect car, because except for the fantastic packaging the base Spark is pretty ordinary, but the electric version is massively better. The drive train is delightful, powerful, refined, responsive, and silent. One pedal driving with regen is a revelation. The Spark has been trouble free and requires no maintenance other than tires and wiper fluid.

I think there is a place for 100 mile range class EVs. The Spark EV makes the round trip from Oakland to San Jose which is the longest routine trip I make. I don't need to drive 300 miles in one go, and I don't need or want to pay for and haul around an extra 60kWH of battery pack.

Teslas are great and all, but they are _huge_. For getting around Oakland, Berkeley and SF the Spark EV is a better fit.

You know the other thing missing? Proper infrastructure.

No one else other than Tesla has built out the right infrastructure. You can't just throw in a CCS port and call it done, there's tons of CCS deserts out there.

Talking with numerous people who've bought Teslas, that's the thing that usually seals the deal.

And round my house we park on the road. No access to charging. Heck I park across the street.

No charging point in the work carpark.

I think you're right on m the money, so to speak. Gas is under $2/gallon here (Kansas City) and people don't give a shit about EV's in any tangible way. They're fading up their trucks and SUVs for cheap. Hell, I'm one of them. I have two kids and drive a Tahoe. I mean a few do care, of course, but not enough to cause a sea change in something as huge as the car market. Until CI becomes painfully expensive, I see little real change.

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