The german (and american) auto companies will either need to drastically alter their composition or other companies will take their place.
On the other hand, Kodak was a little different, they feared selling digital would eat into their "film" business. But EV does not eat into the manufacturers' "petro" business because most MFG are not selling fuels. So it's not like they have a perverse incentive is what I'm saying and Kodak suffered from perverse incentives.
Traditional car manufacturers perfected the ICE and dealership network, while the "secret sauce" of electric cars is batteries and network of charging stations.
Practically, GM is right now at a disadvantage relative to Tesla
Given that Tesla will be charging for their networks, it's not an advantage over other charging networks, so overall it'll be a non-issue. Having dealerships does grant the traditional MFGs some advantage but that may erode in the future if dealerships become less necessary in helping the sales of cars (ie. become more on-demand fleets). ICE car MFGs also have _capacity_. Tesla does not have the capacity right now.
And German manufacturers have bought access to that IP already.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Telsa dies very quickly once the actual EV sales start.
The Gig Factory allows Tesla to ensure they have enough batteries for their car fleet so that they don't suffer from shortages as other MFGs put a demand on suppliers.
[1]http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104609_panasonic-to-bui...
Finding a way to shift towards EV while maintaining economies of scale is the crucial part here. Tesla doesn't have that problem because they don't have the legacy. But they also couldn't produce 10mln vehicles/year within a few years and are not yet profitable.
I actually think that companies have realized how dramatic the shift will be. But EVs are still just a niche and will likely not gain traction before 2020 or so. Reducing capacity of ICE vehicles before EVs really take of is too risky. However, having EV models ready means you can likely shift most production within a few years and probably produce at very low costs.
In addition to that, brand reputation is very important when it comes to cars. Especially regarding security. Tesla has a great record but many Chinese producers do not. That's why you hardly find any Chinese cars on European roads. This will probably not change with EVs, people would still prefer a Toyota/VW/BMW to a lesser known Chinese brand (even if there's no evidence to back that up).