He's quite wrong.
In fact, he quotes me. I'm the one who said plenty of people have programs with flat profiles.
He simply asserts "this view is obsolete", with no data.
I pointed out to him that my data was based on the tens/hundreds of thousands of different programs running in google datacenters for many years.
The truth is, for larger customers who actually care about optimizing, profiles are pretty flat.
Because if they weren't, you'd hire people, switch languages, switch to gpus, make asics, whatever, until they were.
And if you didn't, you clearly don't care that much because it's not worth it, monetarily (IE not "important").
Which is fine, but it in fact, goes very against his point, because those people want optimizing compilers that do a great job without having to spend the money/time to mess with it by hand. He believes you hand these things to algorithm designers, but he misses that this just makes them flat again!
As far as i can tell, he's just handwaving.
I've talked with numerous colleagues elsewhere, and they see the same.
I have yet to hear of a lot of stories of incredibly important code that can't possibly be made faster, where people don't want compilers to do it.
Because it would just be dumb to have that code like that.
There may be code where, temporarily, it has to be like that while another solution becomes more cost effective, that happens for sure, but it's usually 2-3 year time periods.
Because otherwise, if my business could make more money/save time/etc by shoving that code on an FPGA, by convincing intel to add instructions, by funding compiler work, or whatever, not doing it is just dumb.
So they do it.
And then everything is flat again.
The only time people are doing those things by hand is for very short time periods. In the end, they want and need the optimizing compiler to catch up and be able to optimize it well for the architectures.
Even on GPU's, for example, people now depend heavily on optimizing compilers producing good code, even though, a few years ago, literally everything was done by hand.
Will there come a time where things can't be made faster, and we really do have hotspots again?
Maybe. We may change computing models so that doesn't happen :)