So, if this was linear, we can all expect 130 petaflop computers around 2043 for around $3,500?
Lots of caveats here though, things aren't usually as linear as all this, and this is very much a back-of-a-napkin calculation.
So, if this was linear, we can all expect 130 petaflop computers around 2043 for around $3,500?
Lots of caveats here though, things aren't usually as linear as all this, and this is very much a back-of-a-napkin calculation.
Given that Moore's Law is creaking I wouldn't expect pocket petaflops any time soon. I'd expect a serious outbreak of cloudy clusters everywhere, and perhaps a dynamically reconfigurable Internet 2.0 with completely transparent non-localised computation.
This might change if computing finally goes optical and/or quantum. But if we're pushing electrons around wires, current hardware is close to the physical limits. The only way to speed it up is to build a lot more of it and speed up the connections.