Why self-driving cars are not going to happen
yinwang0.wordpress.com
yinwang0.wordpress.com
Self-driving cars will never have this fear holding them back from making mistakes. You could argue there is actually an incentive to let them crash once in awhile, because the valuable real world data will be phoned home and used to improve the product for the small price of a human life.
Once corruption sets in down the road, cars with autopilot capabilities will enable easy kidnapping and assassination. Simply activate backdoor remote piloting and crash the target's car (or the self-driving taxi they're in) into a tree at 70 mph, or lock the doors and drive to a pickup location to complete the kidnapping.
Driving in a traditional car wouldn't protect the target, because a group with ubiquitous optional remote control over self-driving cars could also force surrounding cars to enter kamikaze mode and ram the target off the road.
Governments will demand some kind of backdoor like this at some point, and then we have to trust they'll never abuse it (lol) and that no third parties will ever be able to hack it remotely.
Even if you think the government is your friend, the first worm using a remote code execution exploit that hops from car to car via Bluetooth and activates its payload on a specific date will be able to kill tens of millions of people.
Aside from being vulnerable to malicious actors, self-driving cars make "cold-hearted" mistakes that don't make sense; mistakes that humans would never make. Sure, the total number of mistakes they make will be lower than the equivalent number of accidents caused by humans. However, having human life lost to the type of mistakes self-driven cars make is, in my opinion, an unacceptable price to pay.
If I must loose my life to a car-related indecent, I want the it to be caused by a human, and not some quirk or edge-case in an algorithm or neural net.
Edit: The driver ended up impacting a semi trailer that had been in front of us, with me leaving the lane for the safety of the grassy interstate median.
I do not in any way mean for this to be offensive or disrespectful, but would you still welcome self-driving cars had this incident been caused by a malfunctioning self-driving car as apposed to a reckless driver?
My point is that self-driving cars lack the common sense that humans have. A human would immediately halt if they hear a child scream near their car, a car would continue moving along as if nothing is happening if it isn't designed or trained to detect screams.
Until machines gain sensory and cognitive capabilities that exceed ours, and a working comprehension of human values, I maintain my stance regarding this issue.
I don't know to what extent they use sound as an input (makes sense that they'd do, given horns). But for what I've seen, self-driving cars are much better than humans at detecting pedestrians in their vicinity, including cases in which a child can't actually be seen by a human driver and he happens not to be screaming.
Hell, machines tend to fail even if the setting varies slightly from what they are designed for; just see the numerous ways self-driven machines failed recently for examples.
Machines must gain sensory and cognitive capabilities that exceed ours and a working comprehension of human values for me to trust them.
Where are you getting this from? An obstacle in the LIDAR is an obstacle, there's no common-sense or training needed for the car to know that.
> the numerous ways self-driven machines failed recently
I can only think of the Tesla crash, Tesla cars being notorious for trying to work around the need of LIDAR or similar (being deemed too expensive). What are the other, numerous examples?
> If a machine finds itself in an unfamiliar or unknown settings (or if its sensors fail in a way not accounted for in the design), it will fail catastrophically. A human will not.
Fail catastrophically how? Worst-case scenario for a well-designed car in a situation it can't understand is to park itself and refuse to go on unassisted. There's no neeed for general AI to implement such a behavior.
>Worst-case scenario for a well-designed car in a situation it can't understand is to park itself and refuse to go on unassisted.
All these are false positives. What I object to are the costs of false negatives; A situation where the car mis-recognizes an abnormal situation as normal, and then proceeds to act on it's failed understanding.
The Tesla is a good example of this; the car failed to recognize the obstacle in front of it and acted accordingly (namely, crashing full speed into the object). Regardless of the underlying reason, a machine did not recognize it was in an unknown setting, and thus failed to react correctly. A human, on the other hand, notices, and will generally use what capabilities they possess to at least attempt to handle the situation safely.
I do acknowledge that self-driving cars will likely be statistically safer, but until these cars completely exceed the all the capabilities of human drivers, I refuse to trust them. Regardless of statistics.
A car without LIDAR, only relying on camera.
>A human, on the other hand, notices
The camera didn't even doubt that there wasn't an obstacle in its path due to how it camouflaged against the background. I doubt the human would've seen it.
And you're speaking of a prototype hacked on a car barely prepared for self-driving situations (again, no LIDAR and early iteration) and being used improperly.
You're not making a good argument here.
Absolutely yes. Because if a malfunctioning self-driving car will cause an accident, this will be treated as a bug and fixed. Updates will be rolled out to every self-driving car, making it very unlikely the same accident will ever happen again.
Issues with human drivers, on the other hand, cannot be easily fixed with an update. Human drivers repeat the same "malfunctions" again and again (like driving too fast, driving while being drunk, not paying enough attention to the situation, ...).
Apples and oranges.
Therefore, companies that want to sell self-driving cars are pitching them as safer. The fact of the matter, though, is that it remains to be seen whether self-driving cars are in fact safer.
While a self-driving car will not suffer from some of the shortcomings of a human, like getting drunk or sleepy, it will suffer from other shortcomings that humans don't, like bugs and getting hacked.
Ultimately the one thing we can trust about fellow humans in cars is that they want to survive their trip too. This is true with very few exceptions. The scary thing about self-driving cars is that they don't care if they survive.
I realize that what I wrote above makes it look like I'm saying that no person wants a self-driving car at all. As you point out, that's not true.
What I was trying to say is that, for most people, safety is a bigger consideration than self-driving capability. If a company said "our car drives itself but you're more likely to die in it," I doubt they would sell many.
While we might not know yet whether self-driving cars are /already/ safer than human drivers, it is virtually impossible that they won't become much safer very quick. Simply because bugs in software can (and will) be fixed, each car gets an update, and the accident in question won't happen again, ever. Humans, on the other hand, cannot be updated easily, if at all.
That's patently false. If that is true, nobody will walk around in Manhattan (several feet from speeding taxis), nobody will ride a motorcycle in highway, and the sight of an oncoming 18-wheeler in a rural two-lane road will send every sedan driver to the gutter.
Human drivers feel safe around other cars, even though driving is one of the most dangerous activity practiced by most people, because they've been doing it so long that they're desensitized to the danger.
Problem#2: "Liability Issues" doesn't make sense. Geico, Allstate and other insurance companies can easily provide coverage. In fact the insurance gets easier with self-driving cars. Premium might go up or down based on the technology used. But coverage is very much doable.
Driving is so monotonous,that it is a perfect "killer app" for computer vision and cognitive computing.
I don't think these reasons are valid. For the complexity, I would be really surprised if self-driving car programmers wouldn't consider dangers from objects falling from other cars. In fact, this is relatively easy to consider.
The other one is the liability. One explanation for ML software was that if "regular" software is about data and algorithm, the ML software is about data, model and algorithm. The idea is that algorithm in ML case is somewhat generic, and a lot of customization comes from learned model. In case of liability I think it's quite possible that a judge would make a decision basing on analysis of the model - if the model is "reasonable", then the decision based on that model could be too.
The mattress is a nice example of a novel problem, but a remote edge-case. Being safe from all badly secured loads is not a prerequesite for self-driving cars -- they merely need to be more safe on balance than the mass of human drivers before they start taking over. I suspect that even if self-driving-cars all did the worst possible thing and tailgated all badly secured loads, the overall safety improvement would still be a net positive.
This prediction will suffer the same fate of other naysaying predictions by experts (never fly, never get to the moon, never know what a star is made of, etc., etc,., etc.....).
However identification of a novel problem and the anticipation that it will be a harzard in the near future is a trait that is only needed if your reaction time is too slow.
A self driving cars reaction time will be fast enough that it doesn't need to anticipate anything. It will identify the the velocity of objects (it does not need to know what the object is) in front of it within in milliseconds of it becoming a harzard and decide on the correct corrective manouever to avoid it within milliseconds again.
Further, for self driving cars, the moment something novel happens to them, it won't be novel to pretty much every self driving car running on the same software anymore (and assuming some basic data sharing between manufacturers, probably to all self driving cars). So a mattress falling is a novel situation for every driver the first time it happens to each individual driver. It's a novel situation for self driving cars only the first time it happens to any one of the self driving cars sharing the same model.
The liability issue is not very useful. We would have to change laws slightly, but the insurance for self driving cars will be far more predictable, and the likes of Geico will probably give the owners of self driving cars better insurance than they would owners of human driven cars, because their safety record would be better.
In fact, I bet if self driven cars come with the ability to also be driven by a human, once they're a little established, the ones that do have this feature will be far more expensive dive to insure than the ones that are purely self driven.
I think driving cars will happen soon simple because the ROI is too great to ignore.
It doesn't have to happen on a grand scale. It could start with small things like pizza delivery or package delivery.
The problem with human drivers is that a lot of them maje idiotic mistakes a self-driving car wouldn't. Two weeks ago I saw a guy driving the wrong way down a one way street and he continued past me without realizing it.